| Playoffs? 12:43 - Jun 8 with 7082 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
Seriously, have we got a chance? |  | | |  |
| Playoffs? on 23:59 - Jun 8 with 1554 views | Loftgirl |
| Playoffs? on 22:14 - Jun 8 by Northernr |
I’ve offered to record some Keith Stroud material. |
It would have to be an album. |  | | |
| Playoffs? on 00:23 - Jun 9 with 1526 views | davman |
https://projects.fivethirtyeig
According to this and this is not the first "probability" based assessment I've seen, we have a 6% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Not a great chance really.
As Dave said, top 10 should be treated as a MASSIVE achievement from where we came from last season... |  |
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| Playoffs? on 00:52 - Jun 9 with 1503 views | kensalriser |
| Playoffs? on 00:23 - Jun 9 by davman |
https://projects.fivethirtyeig
According to this and this is not the first "probability" based assessment I've seen, we have a 6% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Not a great chance really.
As Dave said, top 10 should be treated as a MASSIVE achievement from where we came from last season... |
Do you fancy Millwall as favourites to take 6th? |  |
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| Playoffs? on 01:12 - Jun 9 with 1490 views | Boston |
| Playoffs? on 00:52 - Jun 9 by kensalriser |
Do you fancy Millwall as favourites to take 6th? |
No, but a fair size number of their followers have taken the 5th. |  |
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| Playoffs? on 07:12 - Jun 9 with 1435 views | davman |
| Playoffs? on 00:52 - Jun 9 by kensalriser |
Do you fancy Millwall as favourites to take 6th? |
Not much significant movement from current positions in that table tbf the algorithm behind it is probably v simple... | |
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| Playoffs? on 09:04 - Jun 9 with 1345 views | eastside_r |
I am not sure I share the enthusiasm for a BCD play-off campaign.
Of course I want a successful run to close the season. But what would be better? A fantastic winning run that falls short at 7th with positives to carry over to next season OR a brilliant run to sixth which ultimately ends in failure, which might include a gob-bumming* by Fulham or the bus-stop boys.
If it wasn't all going to be BCD, I might think differently.
(* - I miss Bluce!) [Post edited 9 Jun 2020 9:05]
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| Playoffs? on 09:34 - Jun 9 with 1298 views | enfieldargh |
When you watch a modern day movie which shows hoards of barbarians sweeping majestically across a plain, its not actually a hoard its 50 blokes that CGI does something to to make it appear there are 20,000 of the devils.
CGI the crowd...simples |  |
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| Playoffs? on 09:38 - Jun 9 with 1289 views | enfieldargh |
the play offs my heart says
7 wins 2 draws
My head says expect 2 or 3 defeats | |
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| Playoffs? on 09:39 - Jun 9 with 1289 views | robith |
I think we'd have had a better chance without the season suspension. We were flying. This new scenario has a huge range of variables we can't know - for eg in Germany home advantage has disappeared behind closed doors |  | | |
| Playoffs? on 10:27 - Jun 9 with 1231 views | qprd |
| Playoffs? on 00:23 - Jun 9 by davman |
https://projects.fivethirtyeig
According to this and this is not the first "probability" based assessment I've seen, we have a 6% chance of reaching the playoffs.
Not a great chance really.
As Dave said, top 10 should be treated as a MASSIVE achievement from where we came from last season... |
I'd argue that projections based on historical data from this year are largely useless. Think about some of the variables that are going to change
1) Are teams that are more direct going to do better than teams that play football like us? Teams like QPR whose style of play requires synchronization and chemistry may be worse off than teams that play route 1 stuff and require little coordination.... also, teams like us who play a more risky style are probably going to make more mistakes bc of rustiness
2) Teams that are younger/deeper lose will lose the advantage they normally wouldve had b/c of the break.... teams that relied on older players might ordinarily experience a dip of form at the end of the season b/c of fatigue, but now those players will have had a long period to rest, thereby eliminating the advantage that younger teams mightve had
3) teams that are better at home will be disadvantaged b/c they will lose the home advantage ....
4) conversely, teams that are worse on the road will be advantaged
5) teams that are shakier under pressure (like leeds) may be advantaged by not having crowds
6) teams who loaned out a lot of players may be bolstered by the return of players to their squad- championship teams will have loaned out decent young players to league 1/2, SPFL, etc, and will now have extra players in their squad (not that he will make much difference, but qpr has added hamailanen)
6) schedule is going to matter much more... as of today, qpr has something to play for ... but if we lose our first two matches, the playoffs will be out of the picture... normally, you see the phenomenon of "players on the beach" towards the end of the season, but this year, its going to be much much worse b/c a lot of players on mid table clubs are going to be out of contract and reluctant to play and risk injury....is grant hall going to play the last few matches if we're comfortably mid table? teams that by luck of scheduling face less teams in promotion and relegation battles will be better situated
ultimately, i am pretty negative on our playoff chances b/c of point 1 above... it took us months of players gelling, making mistakes and learning from them and learning to play with each other to get us to the point where we were right before lockdown.... i hope im wrong, but id be surprised if we can reach those levels after such a lengthy break | | | |
| Playoffs? on 10:57 - Jun 9 with 1187 views | Esox_Lucius |
Some more considerations are whether players whose contracts run out at the end of June will be as committed knowing that an injury could see them out of work whilst injured. PLayers with an eye on a big move may be more risk averse too.
Normally the disciplinary cards would be reset by now; has there been any statement on whether all teams are starting with a clean disciplinary record for the last 9 games? |  |
| The grass is always greener. |
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| Playoffs? on 11:20 - Jun 9 with 1163 views | daveB |
| Playoffs? on 10:57 - Jun 9 by Esox_Lucius |
Some more considerations are whether players whose contracts run out at the end of June will be as committed knowing that an injury could see them out of work whilst injured. PLayers with an eye on a big move may be more risk averse too.
Normally the disciplinary cards would be reset by now; has there been any statement on whether all teams are starting with a clean disciplinary record for the last 9 games? |
They haven't got round to if clubs will be punished for FFP yet either which would have a big impact on the league table. Barnsley are already threatening legal action if clubs don't get a points deduction |  | | |
| Playoffs? on 11:28 - Jun 9 with 1141 views | karl |
With no stats to back it up I always thought we played in good and bad patches of 6 or so matches, if I'm right and we get off to a flyer then I predict us to hold that form and things could get exciting. Obviously the opposite could be true and we end up with a damp squib.
As has been said hopefully MW has got the squad togetherness sorted and all the players want to play regardless of contract situation, could be a huge part of all clubs form.
One thing I'm not so sure about is the fact we're not playing many teams above us, I'd think that victories against them would help move up the league and otherwise we're relying on others to beat them. Of course teams above us drawing against each other would be good and negates that argument.
My prediction will be that we're close but ultimately needed another 2 games.
I'm usually wrong so waiting for the boys to prove it! |  | | |
| Playoffs? on 11:28 - Jun 9 with 1136 views | francisbowles |
| Playoffs? on 10:27 - Jun 9 by qprd |
I'd argue that projections based on historical data from this year are largely useless. Think about some of the variables that are going to change
1) Are teams that are more direct going to do better than teams that play football like us? Teams like QPR whose style of play requires synchronization and chemistry may be worse off than teams that play route 1 stuff and require little coordination.... also, teams like us who play a more risky style are probably going to make more mistakes bc of rustiness
2) Teams that are younger/deeper lose will lose the advantage they normally wouldve had b/c of the break.... teams that relied on older players might ordinarily experience a dip of form at the end of the season b/c of fatigue, but now those players will have had a long period to rest, thereby eliminating the advantage that younger teams mightve had
3) teams that are better at home will be disadvantaged b/c they will lose the home advantage ....
4) conversely, teams that are worse on the road will be advantaged
5) teams that are shakier under pressure (like leeds) may be advantaged by not having crowds
6) teams who loaned out a lot of players may be bolstered by the return of players to their squad- championship teams will have loaned out decent young players to league 1/2, SPFL, etc, and will now have extra players in their squad (not that he will make much difference, but qpr has added hamailanen)
6) schedule is going to matter much more... as of today, qpr has something to play for ... but if we lose our first two matches, the playoffs will be out of the picture... normally, you see the phenomenon of "players on the beach" towards the end of the season, but this year, its going to be much much worse b/c a lot of players on mid table clubs are going to be out of contract and reluctant to play and risk injury....is grant hall going to play the last few matches if we're comfortably mid table? teams that by luck of scheduling face less teams in promotion and relegation battles will be better situated
ultimately, i am pretty negative on our playoff chances b/c of point 1 above... it took us months of players gelling, making mistakes and learning from them and learning to play with each other to get us to the point where we were right before lockdown.... i hope im wrong, but id be surprised if we can reach those levels after such a lengthy break |
All good points.
Hopefully, having Kelly and Barbet will help to steady us at the back as they are both comfortable on the ball and we can eliminate the mistakes that cost us quite a few goals this season. Defensive midfield cover for our attacking full backs will be vital.
I think we had reduced the errors as the season progressed and the friendlies we have arranged will be very important, in ensuring that we get the necessary understanding of reducing risk. | | | |
| Playoffs? on 11:51 - Jun 9 with 1098 views | eghamranger |
| Playoffs? on 09:39 - Jun 9 by robith |
I think we'd have had a better chance without the season suspension. We were flying. This new scenario has a huge range of variables we can't know - for eg in Germany home advantage has disappeared behind closed doors |
That’s good for our away games then.
Let’s be positive about this.. |  | | |
| Playoffs? on 11:54 - Jun 9 with 1092 views | Northernr |
| Playoffs? on 18:06 - Jun 8 by Northernr |
Another small detail on this. Heard the club had an audio/visual effects company in there last week rigging up a sound system round the stands to provide artificial crowd noise... |
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| Playoffs? on 11:57 - Jun 9 with 1087 views | derbyhoop |
| Playoffs? on 09:38 - Jun 9 by enfieldargh |
the play offs my heart says
7 wins 2 draws
My head says expect 2 or 3 defeats |
I don't think it will be quite as good as that.
I think we'll need at least 6 wins and 2 draws. From 9 games is a big ask.
I suspect 4/5 wins, 2 draws and 2/3 defeats. And we fall short, finishing around 10th. |  |
| "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky |
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| Playoffs? on 12:00 - Jun 9 with 1083 views | TheChef |
Let's see what condition the players are in and how we get on against Barnsley.
Interesting stat about the ball being in play more - without the usual Championship sh1thousery that we normally suffer, this may work in our favour. |  |
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| Playoffs? on 12:06 - Jun 9 with 1075 views | flynnbo |
And just when the neighbours wee getting used to a little bit of peace and quiet and seeing their house prices start to rise! |  | | |
| Playoffs? on 12:28 - Jun 9 with 1042 views | kensalriser |
| Playoffs? on 01:12 - Jun 9 by Boston |
No, but a fair size number of their followers have taken the 5th. |
No comment. | |
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| Playoffs? on 13:35 - Jun 9 with 976 views | daveB |
Will they be pumping in the noises "boot it" when we play out from the back and the booing at half time if we are losing | | | |
| Playoffs? on 14:17 - Jun 9 with 923 views | joe90 |
| Playoffs? on 17:32 - Jun 8 by Hunterhoop |
If we collect 10 points from the first 4 games, I will be all over the play off bandwagon!!
I’ll go.
Barnsley - D
Charlton - D
Fulham - L
Both - L
Wigan - W
Wed - W
Luton - W
Millwall - W
WBA - L
Total 14 points. 64 and 11th. |
Probably a more realistic prediction. |  | | |
| Playoffs? on 14:32 - Jun 9 with 897 views | LongsufferingR |
Sounded like an industrial hoover |  | | |
| Playoffs? on 15:56 - Jun 9 with 810 views | BlackCrowe |
hope there's a recorded 'you're sh!t ahhh..' when the barnley keeper's about to take a goal kick. |  |
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| Playoffs? on 16:31 - Jun 9 with 772 views | traininvain |
I’ve heard that Jim Davidson’s helping Chelsea with their crowd noises. |  | | |
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