| Trump 09:43 - Oct 27 with 114789 views | Hooparoo |
An Australian professor of Data Analytics from Griffith University who predicted Trump’s first win, the Australian Federal Election(when all the polls said the opposite) and Brexit has called it - Trump will be re-elected for another 4 years. You heard it here first. |  |
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| Trump on 10:32 - Nov 4 with 2057 views | GloryHunter |
| Trump on 09:11 - Nov 4 by GaryT |
Wisconsin, North Carolina and Georgia look like going to Trump. Biden needs a big blue shift in Michigan and Pennsylvania. Everyone's attention is on Pennsylvania so if Trump concentrates his lawyers on Michigan, he could win.
I don't get it, what are the Americans seeing in Trump that the rest of us aren't seeing? Apart from shooting somebody in fifth avenue, he's done everything that would normally cost you the presidency. I don't get it. |
They've believed Trump's lies about "the economy". Trump presents a rising stockmarket as the only measure of economic success, but it has zero effect on working peoples' incomes or standard of living. |  | | |
| Trump on 10:42 - Nov 4 with 1996 views | rrrspricey |
| Trump on 09:13 - Nov 4 by traininvain |
Hate to be that guy but if polls were super accurate we wouldn’t bother having elections. They’re usually a good bellwether in this country. US much more unpredictable, not sure if that’s because of how many voters there are or what.
Anyway, Biden is going to win and if he has any sense he’ll reach across the aisle. A shitload of people have voted for Trump. |
What the pollsters don't take into account is people are embarrassed to admit they're voting for Trump...hardly surprising when you consider what he's done in the pat 4 years.
A damning 2 minutes! |  | | |
| Trump on 10:51 - Nov 4 with 1954 views | londonscottish |
I think this is very much the point that the Democrats have missed in their endless attempts to call out the bad character of Trump rather than talk about his policies.
When he came in he said he would stimulate the US economy by tax cuts and regulatory reform. He also lent on US firms to repatriate jobs that had been offshored previously.
People in the rust belt have noticed the effects and like it.
As someone said years ago, "It's all about the economy, stupid". And it often tends to be.
Anyway, Trump's strategists have honed in these messages to take the traditional Democrat votes the swing states and it looks like it might have worked. |  |
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| Trump on 10:53 - Nov 4 with 1945 views | slmrstid |
The whole thing is utterly mental, and the same time completely absorbing.
That's about as much as I'm going to contribute on it without going in over my head.
I did read this earlier though that a friend sent through a group chat. Just a quirk of timing more than anything more sinister I'm sure, but its an interesting counter point to the claim of dead people using mail-in ballots earlier in this thread...a dead person (from Covid-19 no less) being elected! Albeit what I think is local level, not national.
https://www.fox9.com/news/north-dakota-legislature-candidate-who-died-from-covid [Post edited 4 Nov 2020 10:54]
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| Trump on 10:55 - Nov 4 with 1937 views | daveB |
I find it incredible that anyone listens to these polls, they either need to ask different people or ask different questions. In this country they got Brexit and the last 3 General Elections wrong, this is 2 in a row they've got massively wrong in America as well. I never bought this whole Biden by a landslide theory, always looked a lot closer to me and still think Trump will end up winning. |  | | |
| Trump on 11:04 - Nov 4 with 1899 views | Watford_Ranger |
| Trump on 10:55 - Nov 4 by daveB |
I find it incredible that anyone listens to these polls, they either need to ask different people or ask different questions. In this country they got Brexit and the last 3 General Elections wrong, this is 2 in a row they've got massively wrong in America as well. I never bought this whole Biden by a landslide theory, always looked a lot closer to me and still think Trump will end up winning. |
Biden now odds-on. Not honestly sure why but hope it’s correct.
People are embarrassed by who they choose to vote for to the extent they won’t tell an anonymous poll yet still vote that way. Bit bizarre. |  | | |
| Trump on 11:15 - Nov 4 with 1856 views | MrSheen |
| Trump on 10:51 - Nov 4 by londonscottish |
I think this is very much the point that the Democrats have missed in their endless attempts to call out the bad character of Trump rather than talk about his policies.
When he came in he said he would stimulate the US economy by tax cuts and regulatory reform. He also lent on US firms to repatriate jobs that had been offshored previously.
People in the rust belt have noticed the effects and like it.
As someone said years ago, "It's all about the economy, stupid". And it often tends to be.
Anyway, Trump's strategists have honed in these messages to take the traditional Democrat votes the swing states and it looks like it might have worked. |
We speak to a lot of manufacturing companies through work who have been building new plant in the US in the last few years. In part this is because Trump has brought the curtain down on borderless friction-free trade and created more investment incentives at home, but also because Chinese labour costs have caught up so far with the West in the last decade. Without exception, they admit finding workers has been harder than they thought. Two reasons:
1) Manufacturing has a terrible record for job security in the Rust Belt. One Japanese auto part company I know lost a lot of workers at an Ohio factory to a new Amazon warehouse, even though they paid $25 an hour and Amazon $16-18. The workers are assuming that Amazon will still be around in the long term, and they're probably right.
2) Sadly, the opioid crisis. Unemployment might be high in a lot of places, but significant numbers will never be able to hold down a job with work-place drug-testing. No way out for them, but higher wages for the rest. |  | | |
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| Trump on 11:33 - Nov 4 with 1806 views | traininvain |
| Trump on 10:55 - Nov 4 by daveB |
I find it incredible that anyone listens to these polls, they either need to ask different people or ask different questions. In this country they got Brexit and the last 3 General Elections wrong, this is 2 in a row they've got massively wrong in America as well. I never bought this whole Biden by a landslide theory, always looked a lot closer to me and still think Trump will end up winning. |
The polls haven’t been that far off. Florida was always a toss up. Wisconsin and Michigan look far off but they’re still counting votes. Likewise Pennsylvania.
The polls called Arizona with Georgia and NC also tipped and still in the mix. |  | | |
| Trump on 11:38 - Nov 4 with 1779 views | PlanetHonneywood |
The fact decency and the common good is clutching at straws, speaks of a greater moral and intelligence vacuum then was comprehended, even as late as yesterday! |  |
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| Trump on 11:39 - Nov 4 with 1773 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Trump on 11:33 - Nov 4 by traininvain |
The polls haven’t been that far off. Florida was always a toss up. Wisconsin and Michigan look far off but they’re still counting votes. Likewise Pennsylvania.
The polls called Arizona with Georgia and NC also tipped and still in the mix. |
They were way off, TIV - 5% to 9% lead for Biden. As I read it now the declared vote shows only a 2% lead for Biden. That's gigantic in a Gerrymandered Country.
I'm going to walk my dig now and listen to the previously smug 538 podcasters try to explain again why they think there's no such thing as the Shy Tory Effect. |  |
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| Trump on 11:46 - Nov 4 with 1747 views | traininvain |
| Trump on 11:39 - Nov 4 by BrianMcCarthy |
They were way off, TIV - 5% to 9% lead for Biden. As I read it now the declared vote shows only a 2% lead for Biden. That's gigantic in a Gerrymandered Country.
I'm going to walk my dig now and listen to the previously smug 538 podcasters try to explain again why they think there's no such thing as the Shy Tory Effect. |
Give it time. Lots of votes still uncounted in Dem states. Nate Silver’s twitter:
Maybe 11-12m outstanding votes between these states, which might be +25%-ish for Biden. Also a few more in CT, WA and OR. Not much outstanding vote left in red states. | | | |
| Trump on 11:51 - Nov 4 with 1730 views | Maggsinho |
| Trump on 11:39 - Nov 4 by BrianMcCarthy |
They were way off, TIV - 5% to 9% lead for Biden. As I read it now the declared vote shows only a 2% lead for Biden. That's gigantic in a Gerrymandered Country.
I'm going to walk my dig now and listen to the previously smug 538 podcasters try to explain again why they think there's no such thing as the Shy Tory Effect. |
There was talk beforehand of the 'red mirage' effect where Trump would do better out of physically polled votes before Biden catches up and/or overtakes when postal votes are counted so Biden's share may increase.
But absolutely no doubt the pollster have got it wrong again, all the talk of a Biden landslide and a clean sweet of Congress and the Senate has proved way off. |  | | |
| Trump on 11:56 - Nov 4 with 1712 views | londonscottish |
| Trump on 10:55 - Nov 4 by daveB |
I find it incredible that anyone listens to these polls, they either need to ask different people or ask different questions. In this country they got Brexit and the last 3 General Elections wrong, this is 2 in a row they've got massively wrong in America as well. I never bought this whole Biden by a landslide theory, always looked a lot closer to me and still think Trump will end up winning. |
Before Cameron won his last election with a healthy majority the polls were predicting a hung parliament all day long.
But Cameron had Lynton Crosby on his team. Lynton knew that winning elections was about winning marginal voters and set his door-door campaigners out every day with a variety of messages and every night he collated the results. Very quickly he worked which people in which parts of the county found which policies attractive and then doubled down on those. Then modelled all the results.
The folks in Tory HQ knew they'd won by 11.30 pm on election night and, what's more, predicted the majority pretty much exactly. Everybody outside was baffled.
Like him or loathe him you have to look past Trump and to his strategists because if he wins it's because of tactics like this and more fool the Democrats for not figuring this stuff out.
It's all about good data, gathered at the doorstep and decent tech to do the analysis.
At the end of the day, these elections are often won by a minuscule number of votes. | |
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| Trump on 12:01 - Nov 4 with 1690 views | MrSheen |
| Trump on 11:56 - Nov 4 by londonscottish |
Before Cameron won his last election with a healthy majority the polls were predicting a hung parliament all day long.
But Cameron had Lynton Crosby on his team. Lynton knew that winning elections was about winning marginal voters and set his door-door campaigners out every day with a variety of messages and every night he collated the results. Very quickly he worked which people in which parts of the county found which policies attractive and then doubled down on those. Then modelled all the results.
The folks in Tory HQ knew they'd won by 11.30 pm on election night and, what's more, predicted the majority pretty much exactly. Everybody outside was baffled.
Like him or loathe him you have to look past Trump and to his strategists because if he wins it's because of tactics like this and more fool the Democrats for not figuring this stuff out.
It's all about good data, gathered at the doorstep and decent tech to do the analysis.
At the end of the day, these elections are often won by a minuscule number of votes. |
Strangely enough, I had heard the Trump campaign had been a complete fiasco. Despite raising a billion before the virus arrived, they were basically skint weeks before the election and sacked their campaign manager from 2016, who then tried to kill himself. The word was that he had lashed out on a lot of merchandise that he would have earned a commission on if it had sold, which it largely didn't. | | | |
| Trump on 12:04 - Nov 4 with 1682 views | Phildo |
| Trump on 11:39 - Nov 4 by BrianMcCarthy |
They were way off, TIV - 5% to 9% lead for Biden. As I read it now the declared vote shows only a 2% lead for Biden. That's gigantic in a Gerrymandered Country.
I'm going to walk my dig now and listen to the previously smug 538 podcasters try to explain again why they think there's no such thing as the Shy Tory Effect. |
yep you are often told about a three percent margin of error for pollsters and they were nowhere near. Disaster for them you might as well get a prediction of the ghost of Russell Grant |  | | |
| Trump on 12:10 - Nov 4 with 1652 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Trump on 11:56 - Nov 4 by londonscottish |
Before Cameron won his last election with a healthy majority the polls were predicting a hung parliament all day long.
But Cameron had Lynton Crosby on his team. Lynton knew that winning elections was about winning marginal voters and set his door-door campaigners out every day with a variety of messages and every night he collated the results. Very quickly he worked which people in which parts of the county found which policies attractive and then doubled down on those. Then modelled all the results.
The folks in Tory HQ knew they'd won by 11.30 pm on election night and, what's more, predicted the majority pretty much exactly. Everybody outside was baffled.
Like him or loathe him you have to look past Trump and to his strategists because if he wins it's because of tactics like this and more fool the Democrats for not figuring this stuff out.
It's all about good data, gathered at the doorstep and decent tech to do the analysis.
At the end of the day, these elections are often won by a minuscule number of votes. |
While I agree with your post, I would simplify it.
If Trump wins it's because half of America voted for a dictatorial, racist misogynist. | |
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| Trump on 12:10 - Nov 4 with 1647 views | traininvain |
| Trump on 11:51 - Nov 4 by Maggsinho |
There was talk beforehand of the 'red mirage' effect where Trump would do better out of physically polled votes before Biden catches up and/or overtakes when postal votes are counted so Biden's share may increase.
But absolutely no doubt the pollster have got it wrong again, all the talk of a Biden landslide and a clean sweet of Congress and the Senate has proved way off. |
Good point. The ‘red mirage’ seems to be fading. Biden now 17,000 votes ahead in Wisconsin.
Nate Silver predicting that Biden will end up c5-7m ahead of Trump on the popular vote. But it’s important to wait until all votes are counted before drawing conclusions. | | | |
| Trump on 12:29 - Nov 4 with 1580 views | Match82 |
| Trump on 09:19 - Nov 4 by DavieQPR |
Maybe when you improve the economy, improve employment, stop jobs going abroad and put money in the pocket of ordinary Americans they like that. Even if it does upset the establishment and high tech companies. Still they have taken the unprecedented step to stop counting votes until later causing more chaos. |
"Still they have taken the unprecedented step to stop counting votes until later causing more chaos"
This simply isn't true. At all. If you vote by mail your vote is just as valid - Trump by the way has historically voted in this way. And mail in ballots can take a while to arrive especially when there are more than ever before because we are in the middle of a pandemic.
It's a dangerous claim to make and the kind of thing that will have people rioting because they think things are rigged. |  | | |
| Trump on 12:30 - Nov 4 with 1578 views | pastieR |
looking good for Biden now | | | |
| Trump on 13:02 - Nov 4 with 1464 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
| Trump on 12:30 - Nov 4 by pastieR |
looking good for Biden now |
I've avoided predicting the winner but it does look like Biden now with the postal vote. |  |
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| Trump on 13:38 - Nov 4 with 1350 views | SimonJames |
| Trump on 12:30 - Nov 4 by pastieR |
looking good for Biden now |
How do you figure that?
As far as I can see, he has to hold onto Wisconsin, and overturn slight leads in either Michigan or North Carolina. |  |
| 100% of people who drink water will die. |
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| Trump on 13:42 - Nov 4 with 1332 views | Northernr |
| Trump on 13:38 - Nov 4 by SimonJames |
How do you figure that?
As far as I can see, he has to hold onto Wisconsin, and overturn slight leads in either Michigan or North Carolina. |
It seems to be based on the assumption that the majority of yet to be counted postal votes will be for him, and some of the yet to be declared places that are extremely tight include cities like Detroit with a high black vote. After the last ten years of politics I'll believe it when I see it. |  | | |
| Trump on 13:43 - Nov 4 with 1331 views | traininvain |
| Trump on 13:38 - Nov 4 by SimonJames |
How do you figure that?
As far as I can see, he has to hold onto Wisconsin, and overturn slight leads in either Michigan or North Carolina. |
Trump’s ahead by 20k in Michigan but the gap is closing with Detroit still to come and cities tend to favour Biden.
The theme in the mid west seems to be Biden closing the gap once mail in ballots have been counted. Trump has a commanding lead in Pennsylvania but it’s not insurmountable.
Georgia is another state which is still very much up for grabs. Atlanta votes yet to be counted and expected to strongly favour Biden. | | | |
| Trump on 13:54 - Nov 4 with 1289 views | Northernr |
I have to say, as a side issue, the live updates on the BBC website are fcking atrocious. All about reaction, nothing about facts, figures, what's happened, what's still to happen. "How are European leaders reacting?" "What does the German foreign minister think of this?" "What do these Cuban voters in Florida make of it all?"
Who. Fcking. Cares? When did the fcking vox pop take over journalism? I want facts. I want numbers. I could not give a single fcking sht what the EU's chief diplomat thinks at this moment. I'm getting better updates on this from this bloody thread. | | | |
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