| 60 Points 11:03 - Feb 9 with 13370 views | Myke |
Just thrown an eye over our remaining fixtures (slow morning, students doing a test and it's a bit nippy outside) and reckon we can pick up another 27 points. So sixty would be a decent return and should see us nudging into the top half. |  | | |  |
| 60 Points on 15:00 - Feb 9 with 1860 views | Northernr |
| 60 Points on 14:54 - Feb 9 by francisbowles |
Looks like 25% of the time 50 points is not enough.
It would be interesting to know how many points 21st and 22nd place had after 28 games in those seasons. I've tried but can't find that info. [Post edited 9 Feb 2021 14:57]
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Use the Championship form table on Transfer Markt. Set the parameters as round one to round 28 and pick the season. Last year Birmingham finished with 50 and Barnsley 49, at this point they had 34 and 24 and were 18th and 23rd.
https://www.transfermarkt.co.u |  | | |
| 60 Points on 15:06 - Feb 9 with 1849 views | gazza1 |
Can we rename this the 'doom and gloom' thread........we aint going down, we have too many decent players and we have a decent Manager as well. | | | |
| 60 Points on 15:22 - Feb 9 with 1816 views | daveB |
| 60 Points on 12:41 - Feb 9 by Northernr |
I'd be amazed if we got to 60. Still very firmly in the get to 52 points, find three worse teams, get the hell out of here camp.
We're feeling good, four wins from five, playing well, optimism. I think this season more than most has probably shown it's good not to get too carried away in either direction. We've had a thread wishing that Warburton stays for ten years, and another screeching FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JUST GO NOW, within a couple of weeks of each other.
Is Charlie really going to be able to do every game between now and the end? And what happens if/when he can't? What would happen were Dieng, Dickie, or even Barbet to get injured? We've lost Amos and Carrol long term and Kakay and Wallace medium term but we have done incredibly well with injuries this year - those four and one isolation period for Dykes. We've played teams, Blackburn and Stoke among them, reporting nine, ten, 11 injuries to first teamers. Multiple games have been called off for Covid tests and we've had one minor period of isolation for one player. Hats off to the sports science guys, and Warburton's squad management in this regard which we often criticise when we don't like his subs, but we'd be lucky if it continues all the way through and it's not a strong squad.
Watch, also, what happens next week if this run doesn't continue. We could very easily lose at Rotherham. They're a competitive team, they're in good form, they walloped the same Derby team we lost to. Yes they lost at Loftus Road, but only just, they could easily have had a penalty that night, they missed some great late chances, and the key to our victory was Bright, who's no longer here, v Mattock, who was just coming back off an injury. The conditions are not going to be conducive to good football so we're going to have to take on a physical, direct team on their patch in conditions that mean we can't play PLan A. Lose that, you will immediately, at about five past five, see some people on here you haven't seen for a few weeks. There will be at least twice the number of threads and posts there were post Blackburn.
And then it begins all over again doesn't it. Start the fans please. Brentford at home midweek, incredibly difficult game, unlikely to win that. Bournemouth at home, just in time for the new manager syndrome. Preston away, again, very difficult. Suddenly we're potentially on one point, or no points, from 12. Bottom three is only five points away as it is and in this hypothetical we've already allowed Rotherham a three point gain on that. Suddenly we're heading up to Birmingham with them third bottom, us fourth bottom, a point in it, and this message board will be absolutely on fire. Sky falling, kids screaming, women and children into lifeboats, Warburton the worst manager that ever lived must be sacked immediately, and the idea that we'd even amass sixty points if you let us play for another three years will be laughed at as the hopeless optimism of a happy clapper, willing to tolerate the demise of the club.
It's never as good, nor as bad, as it feels. ATM it feels good.
This post has been edited by an administrator |
although you are right and we should have some perspective and realise it only takes one bad week to be bang in trouble there are positive signs at the moment that we can continue this improvement look up the table rather than down.
If we can get through the next 4 tricky games without a disaster we then run into a much better looking run which will make or break the season. Brum, Barnsley, Wycombe, Bristol City, Millwall and Huddersfield so a real opportunity to be safe by the end of March or be reaching for the razor blades. |  | | |
| 60 Points on 15:27 - Feb 9 with 1805 views | PinnerPaul |
Well I'm happy with Paddy Power's 12/1 - that's about 93% chance of staying up! | | | |
| 60 Points on 15:35 - Feb 9 with 1788 views | Rangersw12 |
| 60 Points on 14:23 - Feb 9 by NewBee |
Careful SC.
When I cited FiveThirtyEight on the Brentford thread a couple of weeks back, it drew comments like:
"Anyone that uses % in football predictions is a right cûnt IMHO"
"just... the homework of a 12 year bees fan who has just been given a laptop for home schooling?"
"absolute bollox"
"Apparently [Bees] are now statistically 134% likely to go up and 97% certainties for the Nobel Peace prize." |
All true | | | |
| 60 Points on 15:37 - Feb 9 with 1781 views | derbyhoop |
Only once in Clive's list has a side gone down with more than 51 points. So we need 18/19 from 19 games to avoid relegation. If we can't get that we don't deserve to stay up.
Recent form (5 games only) suggests we can do much better than 19 from 19.
We have been fortunate that we haven't had too many serious injuries, Amos and Carroll aside, but we seem overly reliant on Charlie who has given the whole club a boost. I don't think I'd want to be playing the last 15 or so games reliant on Dykes and Bonne.
I think we'll end up with somewhere in the mid-50s and 16th place as usual. |  |
| "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky |
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| 60 Points on 15:39 - Feb 9 with 1775 views | Northernr |
| 60 Points on 15:22 - Feb 9 by daveB |
although you are right and we should have some perspective and realise it only takes one bad week to be bang in trouble there are positive signs at the moment that we can continue this improvement look up the table rather than down.
If we can get through the next 4 tricky games without a disaster we then run into a much better looking run which will make or break the season. Brum, Barnsley, Wycombe, Bristol City, Millwall and Huddersfield so a real opportunity to be safe by the end of March or be reaching for the razor blades. |
Don't get me wrong, my post is not what I think is going to happen. I'm merely pointing out that the theme of this season on this message board is getting carried away in either direction. The thread started off talking about 60 points. Lose to Rotherham and Brentford and by the end of next week you'll have threads wondering if we'll even get to 40. | | | |
| 60 Points on 16:00 - Feb 9 with 1731 views | kensalriser |
| 60 Points on 15:37 - Feb 9 by derbyhoop |
Only once in Clive's list has a side gone down with more than 51 points. So we need 18/19 from 19 games to avoid relegation. If we can't get that we don't deserve to stay up.
Recent form (5 games only) suggests we can do much better than 19 from 19.
We have been fortunate that we haven't had too many serious injuries, Amos and Carroll aside, but we seem overly reliant on Charlie who has given the whole club a boost. I don't think I'd want to be playing the last 15 or so games reliant on Dykes and Bonne.
I think we'll end up with somewhere in the mid-50s and 16th place as usual. |
I make it three times.
Regardless, we've strengthened the squad, we have a quality keeper in good form, an experienced quality striker and we're a lot harder to beat than of late. I'm not worried about relegation this year. |  |
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| 60 Points on 16:07 - Feb 9 with 1709 views | NewBee |
| 60 Points on 15:27 - Feb 9 by PinnerPaul |
Well I'm happy with Paddy Power's 12/1 - that's about 93% chance of staying up! |
FiveThirtyEight has you on 97% to stay up.
Of course, if someone suddenly lumped a big wedge on QPR to go down PP would immediately shorten their odds, without anything having happened to alter their actual chances.
Whilst FTE's percentage prediction would remain unchanged, at least until your next game. | | | |
| 60 Points on 16:11 - Feb 9 with 1712 views | Match82 |
| 60 Points on 14:26 - Feb 9 by Northernr |
Do you mean 45 might be enough?
I feel like I go through this every year but nobody has been relegated from this league with 55 points since the split 30 years ago.
Third bottom totals...
19/20 Charlton 48
18/19 Rotherham 40
17/18 Barnsley 41
16/17 Blackburn 51
15/16 Charlton 40
14/15 Millwall 41
13/14 Doncaster 44
12/13 Peterborough 54
11/12 Portsmouth 40
10/11 Preston 42
09/10 Sheff Wed 47
08/09 Norwich 46
07/08 Leicester 52
06/07 Southend 42
05/06 Crewe 42
04/05 Gillingham 50
03/04 Walsall 51
02/03 Sheff Wed 46
01/02 Crewe 49
00/01 Huddersfield 48
99/00 Walsall 46
98/99 Bury 47
97/98 Man City 48
96/97 Grimsby 46
95/96 Millwall 52
94/95 Swindon 48 (four relegated this year)
93/94 Birmingham 51
92/93 Brentford 49 |
A minor thing, but currently let's not forget that there an additional team dragged into this conversation with Sheff Wed having a points deduction. So if anything that's one less team likely to get to 50 than they would otherwise have been |  | | |
| 60 Points on 16:32 - Feb 9 with 1681 views | PinnerPaul |
| 60 Points on 16:07 - Feb 9 by NewBee |
FiveThirtyEight has you on 97% to stay up.
Of course, if someone suddenly lumped a big wedge on QPR to go down PP would immediately shorten their odds, without anything having happened to alter their actual chances.
Whilst FTE's percentage prediction would remain unchanged, at least until your next game. |
All true, as a lover of the horses I am aware that odds do not always reflect the probability of an event happening.
My post was a bit tongue in cheek tbf | | | |
| 60 Points on 16:32 - Feb 9 with 1679 views | Stanisgod |
| 60 Points on 15:06 - Feb 9 by gazza1 |
Can we rename this the 'doom and gloom' thread........we aint going down, we have too many decent players and we have a decent Manager as well. |
Ah, the too good to go down theory  |  |
| It's being so happy that keeps me going. |
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| 60 Points on 16:53 - Feb 9 with 1629 views | switchingcode |
| 60 Points on 14:39 - Feb 9 by LongsufferingR |
Not having a go at you but how is it an accurate prediction site if it got 2 of the 3 relegation places wrong last season? It can't possibly take into account vital ingredients like injuries, suspensions, managerial changes etc so what's the point? |
I can’t argue with that it’s just that I’ve followed this site over the last 2 seasons and they have been pretty well spot on with the top 6 and top 2 predictions.This is at various stages of the season.
From afar I can’t see how you are going to get less than 55 points and seeing you have won 4 out of the last 5 ok playoffs might be ambitious but bottom 3 is very pessimistic.The ridiculous schedule up to the next international break could see some unpredictable scores due to injuries and small first team squads. | | | |
| 60 Points on 17:07 - Feb 9 with 1606 views | joe90 |
Some many variable's to consider, but I doubt we'll see either extreme of the available options.
I think we'll finish either 16th or 15th on 55 points. More than enough to stay up but nowhere near the play-off. |  | | |
| 60 Points on 17:08 - Feb 9 with 1598 views | longbottom |
We need robith with that relegation index thingy, shirley? |  | | |
| 60 Points on 17:20 - Feb 9 with 1574 views | Hunterhoop |
I’ll be amazed if 50 points keeps anyone up. It’ll be a high total this year because 7th-23rd can beat each other on any given day.
It’ll be 52/53, I think based on the current league table, IMO. And it wouldn’t surprise me if a team like Huddersfield or Luton went down. Only requires a poor run of 5-6 games. |  | | |
| 60 Points on 17:52 - Feb 9 with 1532 views | Northernr |
| 60 Points on 17:20 - Feb 9 by Hunterhoop |
I’ll be amazed if 50 points keeps anyone up. It’ll be a high total this year because 7th-23rd can beat each other on any given day.
It’ll be 52/53, I think based on the current league table, IMO. And it wouldn’t surprise me if a team like Huddersfield or Luton went down. Only requires a poor run of 5-6 games. |
Just to be contrary, we had a winless run of nine, and another of seven this season and haven't been in the bottom three once, and we've five points clear of it now. Same as Huddersfield, whose current form is LLLLLDD, and Luton who've won four matches in 17 in the league.
As ever, we'll see, no way of knowing, could well be a high total for all your reasons and more. But then what indication are Birmingham (LLLDLLLWLDDL) giving that they're capable of putting another 24 points on the board from here?
I just feel like there's always a thread this time of year that reckons it'll need a record points total to survive.
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| 60 Points on 18:14 - Feb 9 with 1471 views | BrianMcCarthy |
I'm just enjoying it. We've waited nearly a year for a nice run.
Tomorrow can take a number. |  |
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| 60 Points on 18:16 - Feb 9 with 1468 views | Match82 |
| 60 Points on 18:14 - Feb 9 by BrianMcCarthy |
I'm just enjoying it. We've waited nearly a year for a nice run.
Tomorrow can take a number. |
Yeah. And it's the number 16 | | | |
| 60 Points on 18:24 - Feb 9 with 1450 views | Myke |
| 60 Points on 15:06 - Feb 9 by gazza1 |
Can we rename this the 'doom and gloom' thread........we aint going down, we have too many decent players and we have a decent Manager as well. |
No need to rename the thread. I started it on a very optimistic 60 Points note. I can't control it from 'going down' after that | | | |
| 60 Points on 18:46 - Feb 9 with 1422 views | E15Hoop |
| 60 Points on 14:14 - Feb 9 by loftus77 |
Agree with this - apart from I'd substitute '52' with '55' in the first para.
Wycombe are gone (Wild Thing's issue, IMHO, is now disintegration not relegation) and hopefully Sheff Wed and their six bonus points (wtf) will rightfully join them. But for that confounded 22nd place, the mother of all relegation battles is forming up - with us still right in the thick of it.
It feels, this far out, like 2012-13 - when 54 pts wasn't enough. Throw in the 'Covid-effect' of lessening home advantage (we've certainly seen that) and anything can happen. As you say, a crucial issue will be Charlie and what be brings. Obviously, we need him to stay fit, scoring and influencing. [Post edited 9 Feb 2021 14:16]
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Deffo agree that 54 points is unlikely to be enough to stay up this season, unless both Sheffield Wednesday and Birmingham completely disintegrate. | | | |
| 60 Points on 18:50 - Feb 9 with 1403 views | Myke |
Rotherham 0
Brentford 0
Bournemouth1
Preston 0
Birminghham 3
Barnsley 3
Bristol C 0
Wycombe 3
Huddersfield 3
Milwall 3
Reading 0
Coventry 3
N. Forest 0
S W 3
Midboro 1
Swansea 0
Norwich 1
Stoke 0
Luton 3
27 points including 1 from the first 12 - hardly overly optimistic. Of course this can go any which way, but there are a lot of winnable home games in there, Huddersfield, Luton, Coventry, SW, Milwall & Wycombe and while we could easily do a 'Derby' on at least half of them, I'd be disappointed if we can't get nearer to 60 than 50 | | | |
| 60 Points on 19:13 - Feb 9 with 1355 views | TW_R |
| 60 Points on 14:26 - Feb 9 by Northernr |
Do you mean 45 might be enough?
I feel like I go through this every year but nobody has been relegated from this league with 55 points since the split 30 years ago.
Third bottom totals...
19/20 Charlton 48
18/19 Rotherham 40
17/18 Barnsley 41
16/17 Blackburn 51
15/16 Charlton 40
14/15 Millwall 41
13/14 Doncaster 44
12/13 Peterborough 54
11/12 Portsmouth 40
10/11 Preston 42
09/10 Sheff Wed 47
08/09 Norwich 46
07/08 Leicester 52
06/07 Southend 42
05/06 Crewe 42
04/05 Gillingham 50
03/04 Walsall 51
02/03 Sheff Wed 46
01/02 Crewe 49
00/01 Huddersfield 48
99/00 Walsall 46
98/99 Bury 47
97/98 Man City 48
96/97 Grimsby 46
95/96 Millwall 52
94/95 Swindon 48 (four relegated this year)
93/94 Birmingham 51
92/93 Brentford 49 |
Wow - I forgot Leicester got relegated. Was that when Holloway was brought in but couldn’t keep them up?
They went from League 1 to Prem Champions in 7 seasons. |  | | |
| 60 Points on 19:32 - Feb 9 with 1328 views | kensalriser |
The current benchmark to beat to stay up is a point per game.
54 points is over 1.17 ppg, which is currently 17th.
Things can and do change in the last few weeks but needing even over 50 to stay up is a bit of a stretch at the moment. | |
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| 60 Points on 19:44 - Feb 9 with 1311 views | loftboy |
Will be interesting if Sheffield Wednesday stay up by less than 6 points that the team that finishes 3rd from bottom takes legal action. |  |
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