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Well, the money markets didn't like the mini budget. I met Liz Truss in a hotel in Monmouth a few years ago. She said her solution to pensioner poverty would be to feed them on Pedigree Chum. Not only would this save a lot of money, it would give them shiny coats and a nice cold nose.
The Truss and Kwarteng experiment, those two are taking a massive gamble with all this. Batten down the hatches it is going to be a rocky ride, Truss government and the Bank of England do not appear to be on the same page and that could be a recipe for disaster. If the pound does not stabilise BoE will need to step in and raise interest rates quickly. This all has a whiff of 1992 with Norman Lamont and the Major government raising interest rates due to the ERM debacle, they appeared to be going up almost daily and landed up near 14 or 15%.
The Truss and Kwarteng experiment, those two are taking a massive gamble with all this. Batten down the hatches it is going to be a rocky ride, Truss government and the Bank of England do not appear to be on the same page and that could be a recipe for disaster. If the pound does not stabilise BoE will need to step in and raise interest rates quickly. This all has a whiff of 1992 with Norman Lamont and the Major government raising interest rates due to the ERM debacle, they appeared to be going up almost daily and landed up near 14 or 15%.
[Post edited 24 Sep 2022 14:39]
That's if you can afford hatches to batten down.
They're determined to destroy the middle classes.Next up a housing price crash,it's already happening in the States - up to 50% off in some places.
They're determined to destroy the middle classes.Next up a housing price crash,it's already happening in the States - up to 50% off in some places.
Merry Christmas everyone!
I do wonder if the political, economic and public fall out from these tax cuts aimed really at high earners will force Truss into a u-turn. We have massive state intervention needed to help fuel bills yet they are borrowing vast sums to underpin tax cuts. In my mind focus should be on cutting VAT, business rates and raising personal tax thresholds by rate of inflation. No point in hammering small business who are a major driving force in the economy, they are going to be on their knees trying to cope with rising supply prices, higher energy costs and extortionate business rates.
I do wonder if the political, economic and public fall out from these tax cuts aimed really at high earners will force Truss into a u-turn. We have massive state intervention needed to help fuel bills yet they are borrowing vast sums to underpin tax cuts. In my mind focus should be on cutting VAT, business rates and raising personal tax thresholds by rate of inflation. No point in hammering small business who are a major driving force in the economy, they are going to be on their knees trying to cope with rising supply prices, higher energy costs and extortionate business rates.
Be unlike her to back track, she not so fickle...oh hang on!
I'd never heard that KK bloke speak before catching a snippet on the news about the budget. Seems a right twunt!
As the poster above pointed out about the government's economic policy being at odds with the BoE's actions, its lending itself to a complete clusterfuk in the making.
The gathering financial storm is one thing, but if mortgage interest rates do go the way they did in the early 90s - and as many commentators predict - there'll be blood spilled.
When mortgages rates started to plummet in 2008, no one could predict they'd stay so low for 14 years. In that time, if you didn't pay down the capital sum, then God help you as the interest rates go up.
It seems to me that the UK really need Gareth Southgate as PM and Lizard/KK to be more laissez faire with the England football team.
'Always In Motion' by John Honney available on amazon.co.uk
This budget is Truss' bribe to the ERG and other swivel eyed loons of the Tory party that she had to pay to get their votes in the leadership election.
They have known for ages that the broken, corrupt government of Johnson has messed everything up, they know the next election is lost and they are all just trying to fatten their own wallets before the shit hits the fan. They'll give Labour a pile of shit to fix and then do it all over again 5 years later.
This budget is Truss' bribe to the ERG and other swivel eyed loons of the Tory party that she had to pay to get their votes in the leadership election.
They have known for ages that the broken, corrupt government of Johnson has messed everything up, they know the next election is lost and they are all just trying to fatten their own wallets before the shit hits the fan. They'll give Labour a pile of shit to fix and then do it all over again 5 years later.
Oh for a successful modern Guy Fawkes.
Sadly he only wanted to kill the King not sure Charles is our biggest problem at the moment
They're determined to destroy the middle classes.Next up a housing price crash,it's already happening in the States - up to 50% off in some places.
Merry Christmas everyone!
I have had as a pet theory since around Easter when it became apparent that the situation in Ukraine was going to be long and drawn out, that the UK housing market is going to go majorly to sh!t (I even re-read Michael Lewis's book, The Big Short - don't watch the film).
A few points here.
1. We now have an entire generation that have bought houses in the UK with mortgages at 0.5%. They do not know what it is like to have average interest rates in the range of 3-5%.
2. Many have bought new build properties on new estates using the Government's "Help to Buy" scheme. There is no equity in this sort of new property (they buy off plan at the developer's market price, and the price of the properties are completely out of kilter with older houses (which are better built).
3. Anecdotally (from looking round the new estates which have sprung up - the thick end of 2000 new properties have gone up in the last 10 years between me and what used to be the quiet village I lived in), the owners of these new houses also have new cars (presumably on PCP finance or similar).
4. As a result of the total financial collapse over the course of the last 12 months, there is no scope in household budgets for a substantial interest rate rise given what is happening with fuel costs (even though these are now capped to an extentl).
My theory, based on what I have seen from property collapses in the late 1980s and the 2008 financial collapse, is that not only is the housing market going to implode with a price crash in the order of about 25% and substantial repossessions, but the second hand car market may also crater with all the car repossessions from the unpaid PCPs.
Two counters to this are that the court system is now incredibly slow (which will slow down repossessions of houses and cars) and that there are so few houses that even if repossessions do happen, the properties will be quickly sold to waiting buyers.
Nonetheless, it is not good.
Rereading the Big Short has been with a view to seeing how to short the UK property market. I think it is actually easier to do with the car industry and spread betting against big car manufacturers and suppliers to the car industry, who operate their own finance schemes or are reliant on new car (VW and Mercedes - the shiny cars on the new estates, and Melrose, who own GKN which supply the formet, are the ones I am looking at). Obviously, it goes without saying that it is my theory based on nothing more than anecdotal evidence.
I will be interested to see what happens.
But going back to the OP, the country is in an appalling state financially and yesterday's fiscal event was a joke which the financial markets did not appreciate.
I think this mini budget is truly stupid, or at least truly bad for uk civilians.
I took out a 5 yr fixed rate mortgage a couple of months back at 2.24%. It’s a pretty big sum, but we didn’t max out because I was focussed on what the repayments meant as a % of our joint income and we’re just south of 30%. I think rates will have reduced in 5 years time, but if they’re double we could probably make I work, presuming I haven’t lost my job, and clearly life would be painful.
But I don’t want to think what it going to happen who have bought in the last 5 years on interest rates south of 2%, whose fixed term is ending in the next 12 months, especially those who did max out their borrowing and who have seen wage stagnation. Put simply they will have to sell. The market is surely going to take a big big dip.
I know our timing is bad (to be investing in property and taking out big loans!!), but it’s not as bad as others, and we had a baby, two of us soon to be working from home, and a small rented two bed flat just didn’t have the space. We had to commit. I’m glad we had our mortgage approved at the rate we did. By the time we exchanged it was already 3.5%. Some people are going to come to remortgage and go from 1.2% to 5%. I know interest rates aren’t that of 1992 or the 70s yet, but that is a brutal rise.
I get the hedge fund conspiracy. I get the Tory donor conspiracy.
But I don’t understand how this won’t lose them the next election. By then the middle income, swing voters will have been battered by inflation, by rising interest rates, potentially by negative equity, and wage growth being sluggish for many. Surely they’ll turn against the Tories and they’ll lose the next election?! It feels like electoral suicide.
Inflation must be tackled as the no. 1 economic priority. It hits the poorest the hardest and living standard far more than a few % back on your income tax. And the uk govt is going to be borrowing an obscene amount as money gets expensive to do all this.
I think this mini budget is truly stupid, or at least truly bad for uk civilians.
I took out a 5 yr fixed rate mortgage a couple of months back at 2.24%. It’s a pretty big sum, but we didn’t max out because I was focussed on what the repayments meant as a % of our joint income and we’re just south of 30%. I think rates will have reduced in 5 years time, but if they’re double we could probably make I work, presuming I haven’t lost my job, and clearly life would be painful.
But I don’t want to think what it going to happen who have bought in the last 5 years on interest rates south of 2%, whose fixed term is ending in the next 12 months, especially those who did max out their borrowing and who have seen wage stagnation. Put simply they will have to sell. The market is surely going to take a big big dip.
I know our timing is bad (to be investing in property and taking out big loans!!), but it’s not as bad as others, and we had a baby, two of us soon to be working from home, and a small rented two bed flat just didn’t have the space. We had to commit. I’m glad we had our mortgage approved at the rate we did. By the time we exchanged it was already 3.5%. Some people are going to come to remortgage and go from 1.2% to 5%. I know interest rates aren’t that of 1992 or the 70s yet, but that is a brutal rise.
I get the hedge fund conspiracy. I get the Tory donor conspiracy.
But I don’t understand how this won’t lose them the next election. By then the middle income, swing voters will have been battered by inflation, by rising interest rates, potentially by negative equity, and wage growth being sluggish for many. Surely they’ll turn against the Tories and they’ll lose the next election?! It feels like electoral suicide.
Inflation must be tackled as the no. 1 economic priority. It hits the poorest the hardest and living standard far more than a few % back on your income tax. And the uk govt is going to be borrowing an obscene amount as money gets expensive to do all this.
I just find it bizarre.
But as said by PP, they know the next election is probably lost anyway. Why not give a hospital pass to Labour, with the economy screwed, public services on their knees and then reap the benefits when Labour inevitably f uck up because they have no hope of doing anything else. Then we get another ten years of them.
I think economically what they are trying to do is be something different to Europe. The tax stuff yesterday was only one part of it. They are also going to deregulate employment law. Much of the European law that provides a platform of rights for employees is going. They are getting rid of the Working Tine Regulations (the protection for minimum paid holiday leave and weekly working hours), the Transfer of Undertakings (Protection of Employment) Regulations (which prevents changes to employment contracts and dismissal in business sales) and the Agency Worker Regulations. This is big stuff. The idea is that we do not have to be bound by the red tape in Europe and when coupled with the low tax stuff, we become a place where big business wants to invest. The problem is the lead time for all of this: if you are a big business, you don’t decide to invest in the UK on a knee jerk. Which is what this is.
I think economically what they are trying to do is be something different to Europe. The tax stuff yesterday was only one part of it. They are also going to deregulate employment law. Much of the European law that provides a platform of rights for employees is going. They are getting rid of the Working Tine Regulations (the protection for minimum paid holiday leave and weekly working hours), the Transfer of Undertakings (Protection of Employment) Regulations (which prevents changes to employment contracts and dismissal in business sales) and the Agency Worker Regulations. This is big stuff. The idea is that we do not have to be bound by the red tape in Europe and when coupled with the low tax stuff, we become a place where big business wants to invest. The problem is the lead time for all of this: if you are a big business, you don’t decide to invest in the UK on a knee jerk. Which is what this is.
Marvellous, so big business wants to invest and people lose all their rights. The Scandinavian countries seem to manage to have a decent working conditions, efficient public services AND successful economies. It's not essential to follow the US model.
Marvellous, so big business wants to invest and people lose all their rights. The Scandinavian countries seem to manage to have a decent working conditions, efficient public services AND successful economies. It's not essential to follow the US model.
What *is* the US model, precisely? No one truly knows, and none of them know what they're doing. Never put ideologues in charge of an economy. Having political parties run our country is a ludicrous idea when you think about it, given that politicians rarely have any clue about business, efficient administration, or anything else, for that matter.
You could say years of Keynesian gobbledygook and associated dark arts like quantitative easing, interspersed with so-called (as in they never actually were) free-market policies have led us to this pass, but the malaise is deeper: inflation is robbery by governments and banks and the people of this country have been fleeced and fleeced again. I laugh when I recall that twit Gordon Brown saying 'we've ended the cycle of boom and bust' when his entire success was built on cheap credit. And then he sold most of our gold reserves off. And then when the bust did happen, he gave gazillions of tax-payers money to bail out the failed banksters, who promptly did it all again. The West has been teetering on the edge of a sovereign debt crisis for years, and most financial policies could be summed up as 'kicking the can down the road.' Norway did very well out of North sea gas and oil, the UK just squandered it. We never should have come off the gold standard, never allowed fractional reserve banking, but that probably requires a lot more explanation than I can summon the will to provide...
I'm no economist, far from it, but the proposals laid out in the mini budget plus others in the pipeline seem dangerous and grossly unfair. Most of the media think it courageous and far thinking. Well, the would wouldn't they ? I knew a bloke that read in the Daily Mail before the last election that Jeremy Corbyn wanted to tax his back garden.
I think economically what they are trying to do is be something different to Europe. The tax stuff yesterday was only one part of it. They are also going to deregulate employment law. Much of the European law that provides a platform of rights for employees is going. They are getting rid of the Working Tine Regulations (the protection for minimum paid holiday leave and weekly working hours), the Transfer of Undertakings (Protection of Employment) Regulations (which prevents changes to employment contracts and dismissal in business sales) and the Agency Worker Regulations. This is big stuff. The idea is that we do not have to be bound by the red tape in Europe and when coupled with the low tax stuff, we become a place where big business wants to invest. The problem is the lead time for all of this: if you are a big business, you don’t decide to invest in the UK on a knee jerk. Which is what this is.
I worked in the Philippines for a few years, looks like they want to take the economy that way.
I bet we'll start seeing Special Economic Zones introduced, which are more like Victorian work houses for workers.
Salamat po Surr Jacob.
'Always In Motion' by John Honney available on amazon.co.uk
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