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When we signed him on loan last season, a Barnet mate at work said RE was a great signing, albeit on loan, and he said he’ll go to the top and will definitely play for England.
Obviously I can’t provide proof on a message board, but it was the very thick end of £5m with add-ons that admittedly likely won’t ever be met.
I mean, that's fair enough to an extent - but I do think giving it "LOL - Wrong! LMAO!" etc and then saying "you wouldn't know her she goes to another school" is a bit having your cake and eating it tbh
6m+ before and now 4.5m and imagine that includes add-ons. Think it’s a good deal and good use of Eze money. Fair play to the board for spending and not banking the cash.
We have 2 injury prone centre backs, so he’ll start there and be cover elsewhere. We have 2 first choice full backs and he can do a better job as cover than anyone else in the squad. He can also cover centre midfield as doesn’t seem Stephan is big fans of Hayden and Field. The only issue is that he can’t play all those positions at the same time but I understand he’s working on that.
When we signed him on loan last season, a Barnet mate at work said RE was a great signing, albeit on loan, and he said he’ll go to the top and will definitely play for England.
Yes, I’m excited about this if we sign him.
It’s a hugely exciting signing because he looked class when he was with us last year.
I think at £4.5m there is definitely scope to sell him on for 3x that in 2-3 seasons.
All that said, with all the transfer fees were amortising over the coming 3-4 seasons now, we need a good player sale this year and every year.
Across the likes of Madsen, Celar, Dembele, Kone, Poku, Burrell, Saito, now Edwards, plus some of the smaller signings, I reckon we’ll have spent 23-25m. It was at least 18m before this signing. Let’s say 24m for ease of maths and we’re amortising all of those fees over 4 years, we have a 6m hit every season in the P&L against PSR for the next 3 seasons.
Without a sale to the tune of £6m we’ll be making a net loss on transfer fees in the coming years without signing anyone. If we want to reinvest, it needs to be more than £6m. This model doesn’t work if you wait several years in the hope of selling someone for £30m because by then you might have breached PSR, and everyone will know you need to sell so your leverage is gone.
So…Who are we selling in the summer for c. £6m?
This is where my issue with our Head of Performance comes in. We have to keep these assets fit and on the field so their value rises. If I was Nourry, I’d be bringing in a better person here to enable it because it’s critical to his model.
Burrell could have been that summer sale, but if he’s out for 2-3 months, he’s probably not fetching that money after one, injury hit season.
JCS? Can’t get him on the pitch and no one is paying money for him.
Chair? Age and injuries.
Madsen? Perhaps. Age might be a slight issue, and we spent 3-4m on him originally. Possible. But we then need to replace.
Poku? Looking like he could be a busted flush with 2 hamstring injuries already
Dembele? Looking like a busted flush currently. Might change.
Varane? Obviously the one we should sell, but I don’t see us getting £6m up front for him given his form.
Field? Age and salary an issue, and he’s not playing enough.
Kone? Needs more goals. Hasn’t scored enough to justify someone spending more than what we paid.
Saito? Is his form good enough to command more yet?
Kolli? Nourry has been presented with that gift by the previous regime, but we don’t seem to be treating him like a potentially big sale.
This is where my concern is. In isolation I think the Edwards deal makes sense and I’m happy about it. But I am worried about where the sales are coming from this summer and possible next season to cover the amortised costs of the all the transfer fees we’re making.
Our approach is a gamble. It relies on making decent sales every season. To be fair to Nourry, Kelman covered half, maybe more, of what was required in the summer, and the previous regime gave him another massive gift with the Eze money this season. So this season, I think we can more than afford Edwards. And to be fair again, Nourry got money for Armstrong and Dykes the summer before. So we’re probably okay to date. But if we want to be able to keep reinvesting in the squad and not be stuck with the same squad for 2-3seasons before a fire sale is required, we need to bring in +£6m this summer and next, and next, and so on.
Perhaps Frey and Morrison might bring in something this Jan to tide this season over? Here’s hoping.
As a fanbase we have to be aware, we can have nice things like this, but we must sell to enable it and prevent an eventual fire sale or PSR breach, both of which could bring about relegation.
So, Great signing. Concerned with who we’re selling this summer to enable the amortisation model.
It's a hefty chunk of change when we already have the club captain, highest paid player at club (Cook), highly paid player (JCS), development project (Morrison), promising teen (Smith) who all play in the same position. I suppose Cook goes in the summer and the decision has been made that JCS simply cannot be relied upon. This is his 4th season with us now and he's been playing and injury free consistently for one of them. Still leaves us with Dunne, Edwards, Morrison, JCS and Smith... which is very very strong (and costing the club a fair wedge)
It's a hefty chunk of change when we already have the club captain, highest paid player at club (Cook), highly paid player (JCS), development project (Morrison), promising teen (Smith) who all play in the same position. I suppose Cook goes in the summer and the decision has been made that JCS simply cannot be relied upon. This is his 4th season with us now and he's been playing and injury free consistently for one of them. Still leaves us with Dunne, Edwards, Morrison, JCS and Smith... which is very very strong (and costing the club a fair wedge)
Cook and JCS will be gone in the summer. Our defence leaks goals - Ronnie coming onboard can only be a good thing.
It’s a hugely exciting signing because he looked class when he was with us last year.
I think at £4.5m there is definitely scope to sell him on for 3x that in 2-3 seasons.
All that said, with all the transfer fees were amortising over the coming 3-4 seasons now, we need a good player sale this year and every year.
Across the likes of Madsen, Celar, Dembele, Kone, Poku, Burrell, Saito, now Edwards, plus some of the smaller signings, I reckon we’ll have spent 23-25m. It was at least 18m before this signing. Let’s say 24m for ease of maths and we’re amortising all of those fees over 4 years, we have a 6m hit every season in the P&L against PSR for the next 3 seasons.
Without a sale to the tune of £6m we’ll be making a net loss on transfer fees in the coming years without signing anyone. If we want to reinvest, it needs to be more than £6m. This model doesn’t work if you wait several years in the hope of selling someone for £30m because by then you might have breached PSR, and everyone will know you need to sell so your leverage is gone.
So…Who are we selling in the summer for c. £6m?
This is where my issue with our Head of Performance comes in. We have to keep these assets fit and on the field so their value rises. If I was Nourry, I’d be bringing in a better person here to enable it because it’s critical to his model.
Burrell could have been that summer sale, but if he’s out for 2-3 months, he’s probably not fetching that money after one, injury hit season.
JCS? Can’t get him on the pitch and no one is paying money for him.
Chair? Age and injuries.
Madsen? Perhaps. Age might be a slight issue, and we spent 3-4m on him originally. Possible. But we then need to replace.
Poku? Looking like he could be a busted flush with 2 hamstring injuries already
Dembele? Looking like a busted flush currently. Might change.
Varane? Obviously the one we should sell, but I don’t see us getting £6m up front for him given his form.
Field? Age and salary an issue, and he’s not playing enough.
Kone? Needs more goals. Hasn’t scored enough to justify someone spending more than what we paid.
Saito? Is his form good enough to command more yet?
Kolli? Nourry has been presented with that gift by the previous regime, but we don’t seem to be treating him like a potentially big sale.
This is where my concern is. In isolation I think the Edwards deal makes sense and I’m happy about it. But I am worried about where the sales are coming from this summer and possible next season to cover the amortised costs of the all the transfer fees we’re making.
Our approach is a gamble. It relies on making decent sales every season. To be fair to Nourry, Kelman covered half, maybe more, of what was required in the summer, and the previous regime gave him another massive gift with the Eze money this season. So this season, I think we can more than afford Edwards. And to be fair again, Nourry got money for Armstrong and Dykes the summer before. So we’re probably okay to date. But if we want to be able to keep reinvesting in the squad and not be stuck with the same squad for 2-3seasons before a fire sale is required, we need to bring in +£6m this summer and next, and next, and so on.
Perhaps Frey and Morrison might bring in something this Jan to tide this season over? Here’s hoping.
As a fanbase we have to be aware, we can have nice things like this, but we must sell to enable it and prevent an eventual fire sale or PSR breach, both of which could bring about relegation.
So, Great signing. Concerned with who we’re selling this summer to enable the amortisation model.
This is a very good post.
I really try hard not to care about amortisation, but could we sell a number of players as long as they add up to ~6 mil, or it depends on who because of profit Vs asset cost.
I hope we haven't done that thing of falling in love with a loan player but I am excited about this.
I was thinking that, as it happened with Johansen and Austin (although playing in a different system i.e. 4.3.1.2 alongside Dykes afterwards 4-3-2-1 with Willock & Chair behind him).
Hopefully he will continue with his form of last season and will play well alongside Dunne.
Now for another striker, left back and maybe Castledine.
£ 4,5 mil is terrifying. We needed to strengthen up our defence because it has been leaking from left to right and he was more than good last season. But .... £ 4,5 mil....
if true and he is to sign at 4.5m , then well done the board as this is a massive investment for a young lad with a lot of potential . saints do have a good academy , which i hope we regain that status again soon.
I was thinking that, as it happened with Johansen and Austin (although playing in a different system i.e. 4.3.1.2 alongside Dykes afterwards 4-3-2-1 with Willock & Chair behind him).
Hopefully he will continue with his form of last season and will play well alongside Dunne.
Now for another striker, left back and maybe Castledine.
I really try hard not to care about amortisation, but could we sell a number of players as long as they add up to ~6 mil, or it depends on who because of profit Vs asset cost.
It doesn’t matter who, to an extent.
These numbers are all fag packet maths and I’m sure are a little out, but not materially.
It can be 6m of income from players sales from anyone. But fans need to remember when those sales happen, the money doesn’t allow 6m of spend on new players; it is just covering the historic amortised spend. If you want new players, you need to sell more.
However, there is one caveat, if we sell someone who bought for £Xm and amortised the transfer fee for, and we sell them for less than we paid, we will have to book as a cost the outstanding amount amortised. So, hypothetically, if Kone fails, and we sell him after 2 years for £2m (a £2m loss on the £4m paid) we’d have to bring forward the outstanding £2m amortised to that financial year. This means, in effect, we’d have sold him for nothing as far as that year’s P&L is concerned.
This brings into light another key point of the amortised approach. You absolutely must sell the players you pay transfer fees (and amortise said fees) for more than you paid. If you can’t, you basically end up holding onto them until the last few months of their contract when selling them or paying them off won’t incur much outstanding amortisation brought forward. I’m pretty confident this is why Taylor Richards hung around for so long. We paid £2-3m for him, I believe, and I reckon we amortised that. And in those years we were tight to FFP, we simply couldn’t f*ck him off because on top of the salary owed, we’d have had to write off at that point whatever amount was left amortised over his contract term. It’s another downside of the approach.
But, look, the upside is nice things. It means for a couple of years you can spend beyond your means (to use family life parlance). But just like credit cards, at some point you need more money coming in to pay off what you owe. Here we don’t “owe” anything, but without sales we’ll have a big PSR problem and end up needing a firesale.
The whole thing relies on regular income from player sales, either not the ones amortised, or those ones for bigger amounts than you paid for them.
I think there is potential for big money sales in Kone, Edwards, Saito, perhaps Poku if he stays fit all of next season and tears it up. I’m just a little worried about this summer. And there is no guarantees the summer after who that big ticket sale is.
Again, I come back to it, it’s why having a tip top fitness/physio/medical/Performance teams is so critical. No one’s value goes up when they are injured…
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