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Predictions 2008-9 - 16th Morecambe
Predictions 2008-9 - 16th Morecambe
Saturday, 2nd Aug 2008 23:31

Our latest prediction takes a look at fellow Lancastrians Morecambe FC and how we think they'll do during the forthcoming season.

Morecambe
last season at a glance

There was a touch of the Charltons about Morecambe last season. Whilst like with many other sides who come up from the Conference, they make all the right noises that it isn't just about survival, but the stats prove otherwise. Last season was all about staying up, which they managed with some ease. But as soon as they hit the 50 points level, they got the nod from the pavilion and issued a declaration, before eventually stumbling their way to what was a highly creditable 11th place finish - but one which could have been improved upon had they stuck with their earlier form.

The gaffer - Sammy McIlroy
You can't fault McIlroy's record with the Shrimps. He's took them into the Football League for the first time ever, and within the space of a season has established them far more than say the likes of Accrington ever have done. On that alone, he's probably down as having one of the safest jobs in the whole of the division and it would take something extraordinary for McIlroy to face the sack.

Aside from his time at Stockport, where he wasn't alone in finding that an impossible job to succeed in, he's had good times in the Football League with both Morecambe and Macc, and in both cases he's had them succeeding playing good football along the way.

One thing which always stood out for me over the years with McIlroy is that he always came across as a lovely bloke and that as such his dressing rooms were always a haven of peace and harmony. But after last season's bust up with Craig Stanley, you'd have to accept that it's not quite the oasis of calm it comes across as.

Reasons for a better season

The obvious answer to put down for a start is that the Morecambe side will be going into the new season with a season's worth of League Football under their belt. Many of their side hadn't experienced that before, and will most certainly be better players as a result.

And there's likely to be fresh ambition about the place this time round. Whilst they'll never have admitted to it, staying up was their raison d'être last season, hence their second half of the season slump. They probably didn't realise quite how good they could be, hence a lower finish than they could have wished for. There'll be no mistakes this time round of setting their sights too low.

Reasons for a worse season

There's three main reasons to suspect that this will be a worse season for Morecambe. Firstly, that promotion momentum is now gone. It always sees a promoted side through the first half of the season as there is still a huge buzz about the place following the promotion. Had we beat Stockport, our board could have tripled admission prices, sold all our players, replaced the stewards with gun toting storm troopers and brought Chris Casper in as Director of Football, and we'd still just be going round with huge grins on our faces like someone E'd up at three in the morning. That will be absent from Morecambe as they start this new season.

Secondly, and you could argue this is just an extension of firstly for you Captain Pedants out there, that run of form which they finished the season with would worry me greatly. Just four wins in the final four months of the season is relegation form, and whilst as above you could argue that it was already job done for McIlroy's men, that mindset can be difficult to shift.

Thirdly though, you look at their squad from last season, and it seems to be "Will anyone who scored more than five goals please leave now?". Carl Baker - gone. Garry Thompson. Even Jon Newby got ten goals through some force which is obviously of a higher power, and he's gone too. And if we say that losing Jon Newby is a bad thing, then God help you.

Season depends on - Rene Howe
I don't think anyone at Spotland really appreciated quite what a fine job that Rene Howe did for us last season. He came in as replacement for Glenn Murray, having never been given a chance at Peterboro in what was his first real go at League Football. In doing so, he actually produced a better goalscoring record in the 2007-8 season than Murray did, and I don't think you could ask for more than that.

Admittedly, there were times where he drifted in and out of games, and he didn't fully take advantage of his bulk, but those concerns could probably have been levelled at any player in their first full season, and arguably those concerns judge him on the things that he didn't do rather than the things he did do.

But I am sure that he'll have learned much from his time with Dale, and come out of it as a better player. If there's any worries about him at Morecambe, it'd be how he'd cope away from the big city. I know Rochdale isn't exactly Monte Carlo but its not as isolated as Morecambe is and I can see him feeling a touch isolated up there in Morecambe.

RochdaleAFC.com Prediction

16th - Lower half nothingness

Reasons for our prediction
Overall, I suspect things will be a touch worse for Morecambe this time round, mainly due to the fact that the players leaving Christie Park aren't as good as the players who have arrived there.

Please don't start thinking that I'm going to do anything stupid like sticking up for Jon Newby, but with Newby, Thompson and Baker all leaving Morecambe over the Summer, that's very roughly a total of thirty goals that have been wiped off from last season's total. Take that away from any side, and you'll notice the difference.

Morecambe fans will quite rightly point out that Blinkhorn remains, and that Rene Howe has been drafted in for that very reason, but much as I rate Howe, I can't see him getting anything close to a figure which will make up for such a loss of goals, especially when about twenty of those came from midfield.

I still think that there'll be more than enough in the Morecambe squad to ensure that they are well away from the dogfight below, and McIlroy will be far too canny for it to come to that, but there's a huge difference between a buoyant Morecambe side and a somewhat deflated one, especially on the back of losing arguably their two best players and it would be very easy to claim that they reached their peak at around December of last season.

There seems to be a bit of money floating around Morecambe right now, and they've been linked with cash bids for Andy Kirk and Andy Bishop, both of which they seem to have missed out on, but it would appear McIlroy is still on the look out for another striker, so I guess things could change as the Morecambe squad does, but as it stands it's going to be a disappointing season for the Shrimps.

Photo: Action Images



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