In four weeks time Saints will either stand on the cusp of the Premiership or the supporters will be bemoaning a very good opportunity lost.

Saints stand as we speak eight wins from the premier league, of course with 14 games to go its hard to be accurate as to how many points will eventually be neededto go up, but I would say that 85 would be enough, if we win eight and assuming we get at least two draws out of our remaining fixtures then we will be there.

Eight of those fixtures take place between now and the end of March although only three of them are at St Mary's.

Reading for one have dragged themselves up behind us with a good run of straight wins and we now need to do the same and reopen that gap, to be blunt if we can put in a four game winning streak between now and the end of March then its job done, OK its not rocket science and if we alternatively won one and drew the next that would be just as good, but what we need almost as much as the points is a psycological advantage and therefor a four match winning run sooner than later will keep us up in the top two and indeed should see us pull away again.

The next four games are winnable, trips to Watford & Leeds whilst not givens are well within our capabilities and if we notch up to away wins on the trot that sets us up nicely for two straight home games against Ipswich & Barnsley, I would surmise that if we could get 12 points from these games then a significant gap between us and the other teams behind us will have emerged and putting ourselves past the 70 point mark with ten games left would put real pressure on them

At present I have stated we need 8 wins from 14 games, assuming that they win their games in hand and that is far from certain, that means that our chasing rivals need to win 9 from 14, that in itself leaves little room for error, but if we put our winning run together now the bench mark has been set and pushed out further for the likes of Birmingham and Reading to name but two.

If we could get this four match win under our belts we still have two winnable games left in March Millwall away and Doncaster at home, plus two that if we draw them at least, would knock back two promotion rivals in Hull & Blackpool, a realistic target scenario for this 8 game spell would be 6 wins and 2 draws, a tough target, but very very much within our capabilities, reach for it and get it and we would be only two wins from the promised land, of course this would be the dream scenario, however the minimum target should be 16 points from these 8 games, two points average per game as i have been saying from the start of the season, we would still be in the driving seat.

Less than that and we would be down amongst the hopefuls and although we still have as good a chance of automatic promotion as them it would now be as good as it could be, indeed as the season hots up it becomes about who has the nerve, last season we proved it was us as we hunted down Huddersfield, we have to prove we have that steely nerve again, this time from a winning position, if we get less than 15 points from the 8 games I feat that the advantage may well have switched to one of the chasing pack, so the sooner we break their nerve the better.

We go into this weekend with the ball firmly in our court, promotion is ours to lose, we have already thrown away one good chance this season to storm to promotion easily, we still have at least one chance left to do so, we do not want to waste that.

Photo: Action Images

iwtwms added 13:20 - Feb 23 Nick, In a nutshell we are good enough to beat any team home & away. It all depends on the attitude & the commitment of the players. If they have the belief, then I am confident they can do it. I was surprised to see that Ben Reeves has gone on loan to the Daggers as I thought that he was one of our better youngsters that has proved himself capable of putting in a first team performance. I guess that now we have a near fully fit squad then he may have slipped down the pecking order.

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SaintNick50 added 13:37 - Feb 23 I am following our leaders mantra and taking one game at a time. The next game is always the most important. Any of the nine clubs from WHU to Brighton could get automtic promotion. If we remain firm and keep the consistancy I believe we could win the league, but I am not going to bother who we are playing in two or three weeks time. I am dissapointed in the ticketing arrangements for Portsmouth & Coventry. No I am not a season ticket holder, I know this guarantees you a seat at every match but I always feel that the cost saving is not that brilliant. There are always a number of home games I can't make, but I travel to quite a few away games to make up for it. Again the final 10 deal I didn't think was particularily good especially as I knew I would miss about four of them due to ill timed holidays and work committments. In the past tickets were allocated on the number of matches you had attended, a much fairer system. The 'linked' games are the ones I can't make so I may end up dissapointed even though I have been to nine home games and seven away (eight including Watford this Sat) so far. I can see why the club have done this as a money making exercise, what does anyone else think? TOGETHER AS ONE!

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Fordy added 14:30 - Feb 23 I'm not sure 8 wins will be enough. Reading and Birmingham are hardly dropping any points and West Ham will finish above us. I hope you're right, but Brum and Reading have the kind of momentum we had at the start of the season.
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BlackRod added 14:58 - Feb 23 I'm not sure the analysis needs to be that complicated. History is irrelevant. Fact is that Reading, Birmingham and Middlesbrough are all breathing down our necks with only a 2/3 point gap (assuming they win their game in hand). Whichever of the four puts in the best winning run (and, arguably, they are all coming into form) will get promotion. Our chances are probably only 50:50. That said there does seem to be an air of 'destiny' about this team - however much they have wobbled they have stayed in the top two. Hope it continues.

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jacksk1 added 15:51 - Feb 23 I too am disappointed in the ticketing arrangements for the Pompey and Coventry games, particularly those put in place for Pompey. Why are season ticket holders being given the opportunity to purchase an extra ticket for the Pompey game a full week before tickets are made available to non-season ticket holders...?? Season ticket holders obviously already have a ticket for both the Pompey game and the linked Doncaster game so why should they need to buy another one. Surely those fans that do not already have a guaranteed ticket should be given the first opportunity to buy tickets. I am not too bothered about the Coventry game as I can't see too many people forking out for three games at once so I think plenty of tickets will still be available for Coventry when they go on general sale and will no longer be linked to another game.

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iwtwms added 16:33 - Feb 23 Points among the top 6 will be dropped because many of them still have to play each other. West Ham still have to play Reading, Birmingham & Middlesboro for example.
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Whatsforpud added 18:15 - Feb 24 I agree we are capable of beating them all, but various obstacles can come into play. A slip by a defender on a wet surface, a penalty award against due to an opposing forward making a meal of things, etc, etc. can spoil things even when playing well. Given that we have that pack closely chasing, I would image the we might have to win 9, draw 2, and therefore lose only 3. I'm holding my breath.

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