Another weekend, another managerial sacking at the bottom of the Premier League. The threatened sides are panicking, but QPR need to post points to take advantage starting tonight at Fulham.

Fulham (10th) v QPR (19th)

Premier League >>> Monday April 1, 2013 >>> Kick Off 8pm >>> Craven Cottage, London, SW6 >>> Live on Sky Sports 1

Sacking managers at this stage of the season is a huge gamble that rarely pays off, if you believe the stats. Sacking your manager at this stage of the season and replacing him with Paulo Di Canio is about the biggest case of ‘shit or bust’ I can ever recall. Those waking up to the news from Sunderland for the first time this morning would be forgiven for laughing it off and pointing to the date.

The combustible Italian’s record at Swindon Town cannot be argued with. He promoted the Robins from League Two – a division he can have known little of before arriving at the County Ground – in his first full season as a manager and looked all set for a second consecutive promotion this season until he walked out in the midst of a messy boardroom takeover. He deserves credit for dropping down that low to prove himself, rather than relying on his reputation as one of the most creative and skilful players in the Premier League era to parachute him into a job higher up the ladder.

And it’s easy to see why he would be attractive to Sunderland owner Ellis Short. The American certainly can’t be accused of not backing his venture – managers at Sunderland rarely want for more money when the transfer window creaks open – and this season alone he has spent £12m on Stephen Fletcher, £10m on Adam Johnson and £5m on Danny Graham.

It will be the form of the latter two that has given the money men at the Stadium of Light cause for concern. Both have been shadows of their former selves – Johnson unrecognisable from the free-scoring form of his latter days at Middlesbrough and initial time at Man City, Graham’s impressive Christmas performances dropping off a cliff the second he’d completed the move north from Swansea. Martin O’Neill often gets an easy ride in the media, partly because he’s a likeable man who’s good for a quote and does a lot of punditry work alongside those who then sit in judgement on him when he does get a job, but also because he undoubtedly did a good job at Wycombe, Leicester, Celtic and Aston Villa. The timing of this move also seems odd – Sunderland were wretched against a Norwich side that played most of the game with ten men a fortnight ago, so why not sack him then and give yourself the international break to replace him? Did Short expect a victory against Man Utd on Saturday? The only conclusion, and the late hour timing of the decision adds weight to this theory, is that there was something of an exchange of views when chairman and manager spoke on Saturday evening.

But O’Neill spent plenty doing that job at Parkhead and Villa Park, and walked out of the Birmingham club when owner Randy Lerner made it clear that the days of blank cheques were over. It cannot be denied that apart from goalkeeper Simon Mignolet, not a single Sunderland player has improved under O’Neill’s tenure. Even James McClean, the find of last season, has regressed alarmingly this campaign.

Di Canio was famed at Swindon for his ‘my way or the highway’ approach. Unhappy with the performance of goalkeeper Wes Foderingham in an away game at Preston he substituted him after a quarter of an hour then took to the cameras afterwards to laugh at the young stopper: “We’re not talking about Cech,” he said, “we’re talking about Wes. League One Wes. 20 years old. Are we crazy.” Having signed Leon Clarke from QPR he shunned him out on loan to Chesterfield two matches later when the big target man objected to being asked to train the day after a game. He removed the captaincy from several players he didn’t think were trying hard enough in training. His methods seemed to be based around making an example of a player every three months or so to keep the others in line.

Short must look at the stubs in his cheque book and the zeros on the monthly wage bill and think he quite fancies a bit of that sort of attitude at his club. Premier League players though are different beasts to those who roam the range in Leagues One and Two. At Swindon Di Canio could command respect for who he was, spend more money than almost every other club in the division, and players he lambasted couldn’t respond with an “I don’t need this” attitude because at that level they all need it very much indeed to pay mortgages and such like. It remains to be seen whether the millionaires in the Sunderland squad will be quite so impressed. That’s all without going into Di Canio’s fascist political beliefs – Labour politician David Milliband has already resigned from the club’s board following the appointment, although given that Sunderland were paying him £125,000 for 15 days ‘work’ a year as a non-executive director the club may consider that no great loss.

A fascinating twist to the relegation battle.

That battle still includes Aston Villa after they contrived to lose at home to a Liverpool side with little to play for on Sunday. Paul Lambert insists his team is too good to go down, and he’s confident they will climb away. They’re certainly playing well enough, but Nathan Baker’s rash tackle on Luis Suarez for a match winning penalty yesterday was the latest in a long line of howlers from a naïve back four. Villa still have to go to Man Utd and while they alays look capable of scoring goals, they never look likely to keep a clean sheet earlier.

Lambert’s rhetoric rather reminds me of the time some fool along the corridor from my family in a Florida hotel fell asleep with a cigarette in his hand and set the place alight. Amidst billowing smoke and wailing fire alarms my parents remained calm and had my young brother and I put our coats on and very calmly crawl out of the room under the smoke and into the car park. There was lots of reassurance and “it’s ok, nothing to worry about” then as well but they admitted later they were shitting themselves and a few more minutes fumbling around for shoes amongst the toxic fumes could have made the situation a grave one. Important to keep youngsters calm so they can function through the crisis, but sooner or later some urgency is required.

Matches against Sunderland at Villa Park on April 27 and (prepare to raise eyebrows) at Wigan on the final day of the season could have a huge say on Villa’s future.

So there’s ten paragraphs (sorry 606 lot) on Aston Villa and Sunderland in what’s supposed to be a preview of Fulham v QPR. Rangers go last this weekend and can perhaps consider that – as the gap to safety hasn’t widened from the seven points it stood at on Friday – they’ve rather got away with things. It’s the time of the season when you cannot help but look at the other teams and their results and I could barely stand to watch as Gerrard stepped up to take his spot kick at Villa Park yesterday. But it is all academic if QPR do not make the most of their supposedly favourable fixture list.

Rangers can take heart from the performance, if not the result, at Villa a fortnight ago when they looked dangerous in every attack and deserved to win the game. Play like that again and Harry Redknapp’s men can reasonably expect two, or even three, wins from the next three matches starting tonight at Fulham. Then, and only then, would Lambert’s breathing exercises in the Midlands and Di Canio’s impact on Wearside become relevant to QPR, rather than just other curious storylines to distract from our own misery.

Links >>> Opposition Profile >>> Referee >>> Betting >>> History >>> Travel and Tube Closures

This Monday

Team News: No new injury concerns for Harry Redknapp ahead of this one. Bobby Zamora has a chronic hip problem that will seize up at half time if he starts, ankle ligament damage that would ordinarily rule him out for six weeks, and has just got over the flu but is allegedly fit to take his place in the side against the team he left to join Rangers last January. Adel Taarabt’s exciting cameo at Villa Park may put him in line for a recall on a ground where he had an infamously unhappy afternoon last season but in Loic Remy, Andros Townsend and Junior Hoilett Rangers have three other supporting attackers for Zamora all in decent touch who could also consider themselves unfortunate not to be picked from the start.

Fulham will give a late fitness test to Bryan Ruiz after he picked up a hamstring complaint on international duty with Costa Rica during the week. Mahamadou Diarra is out for the season.

Elsewhere: As already discussed, defeats for Aston Villa against Liverpool and Sunderland against Man Utd leaves both deeply ensconced in the relegation dogfight. Wigan’s annual late run to safety gathered speed with a home win against Norwich – QPR’s former charge Lee Camp doing his old club few favours by allowing a soft only goal of the game there.

Southampton were considered a potential relegation candidate before the weekend, and as their 2-1 home win against Chelsea lifted them above Stoke, Norwich and Newcastle presumably Rangers must now fix their sights on that trio as well. Newcastle lost 4-0 at Man City and seem prone to taking their eye off the ball and fixing it back on their run in Europe everytime it looks like they’re probably safe. Stoke are simply awful, and fortunate to have 34 points on the board already. A meek 1-0 defeat at Everton keeps them within range while Norwich probably need at least another four points before they can clock off for the summer.

QPR moved off the bottom without playing on Saturday when new Reading boss Nigel Adkins saw his side slip to a 4-1 defeat at Arsenal. A win tonight puts the Hoops four points behind Villa and Wigan and five behind free-falling Sunderland.

Referee: A late change to the advertised official for this one sees Lee Probert taking charge at Craven Cottage. That’s not great news for Rangers as the originally listed referee, Jon Moss, has done nothing but award the Super Hoops penalties and send off opposition players since we were promoted alongside him at the start of last season. Probert has refereed defeats against Swansea and Man Utd this season, and a goalless draw with Spurs. He’s only sent off three players so far this year, but one of those was Fulham’s Brede Hangeland in harsh circumstances in a home defeat to Sunderland which QPR will hope is an omen. His full QPR case file is available here.

Form

Fulham: Fulham are notoriously poor travellers in the Premier League, but their win at Spurs last time out – that stretched an unbeaten run to four matches – was their third on the road this term and they’ve only lost six times away from home. That record stands up well in a league where third placed Spurs and fourth placed Chelsea have both lost five. Their home form hasn’t been quite so hot, with five defeats (the same as last placed Reading) including a set back against struggling Sunderland. They’ve won just two of their last seven games in all competitions at Craven Cottage.

QPR: Rangers had to wait 17 matches to win a Premier League game this season – when they did it came against Fulham at Loftus Road in December. That victory was the first for the R’s against the Whites in seven attempts dating back to 1983 and Taarabt’s two sublime goals the first Rangers had scored against their near neighbours in that period. They haven’t won at Craven Cottage in five visits dating back to 1979/80 and lost 6-0 on this ground last season. They went on to suffer a similar drubbing at Chelsea last campaign, but this year the R’s have shrugged off their lousy form to remain unbeaten in three matches against the other teams in Hammersmith and Fulham – four points from two games against Chelsea and three from one against Fulham is a remarkable record considering how the R’s have struggled against everybody else in the country. If Andros Townsend plays it will be the one hundredth appearance of his professional career – just 18 of those have come for his parent club Spurs and of those only seven have been starts.

Betting: Professional odds compiler Owen Goulding tells LFW…

“QPR make the short journey to Fulham knowing that a win is a must. Fulham are a tough proposition at home, as we found out on our return to the Premier League last season. They have only lost one at Craven Cottage since turn of the year, and that was a narrow 1-0 defeat to the champions elect Manchester United. QPR should have won at Aston Villa, that’s for sure, but defensive frailties caused mainly by lack of pressure from midfield areas continues to haunt them. They will face a very hard working pairing of Sidwell and Karagounis on Monday and this may seal their fate. The game will be open no doubt, especially with QPR's need for three points, but with revenge on Fulham's mind after their defeat to a Taarabt inspired Rangers back in December , I'm afraid I can see a very tough evening under the lights for QPR.

“In terms of betting on the game, Karagounis rarely lasts 90 minutes anymore, but he loves a shot from range whilst he is on the pitch. With QPR constantly seeming to give space in the midfield to opposition teams, he will be ready to try his luck whenever possible here and at Ladbrokes 18/1 each way it seems worth an investment. With regards the current relegation prices, the bookies have written off Reading - 1/16. QPR are all but relegated in the eyes of the oddsmakers - 1/6 is the general price. A barrage of money since the injuries to Fletcher and Cattermole came to light this week see Sunderland at a general 5/2 for relegation now and Mr O'Neill must be sweating buckets as he looks at their run in. For those of you who want to have a bet with your heart rather than your head, you can get 4/1 that QPR stay up. Personally I wouldn’t back that with stolen money.....”

Winners so far:

Southampton to score their first goal after the 30th Minute at 21/20, 01/03/13

Prediction: Reigning Prediction League champion Nathan McAllister says…

“The narrative with Fulham over much of the Premier League era has been that they are fairly formidable at home yet frail away. In their ten full seasons since being promoted, Fulham have averaged just 2.3 wins per season away compared to an average of 9.1 wins per season at Craven Cottage. However, this season has bucked the trend somewhat: they have the tenth best away record in the Premier League but only the fourteenth best home record. They are currently on an unbeaten run of four matches and come into this game off the back of a 1-0 win at White Hart Lane, a game in which, while they weren’t brilliant, they were well organised and did enough to take full advantage of a jaded, post-Europa League performance from the hosts.

“On Monday we can expect a more positive, attacking approach from Fulham on home turf. This actually may suit Rangers who have started to pose a far greater counter-attacking threat recently and have scored in five consecutive halves away from home. Unquestionably, the defeat to Villa was a devastating blow to Rangers’ survival hopes which left fans and players alike absolutely gutted. But after fifteen days without a match the pain inflicted by that defeat should have eased, and the fact that they were able to play Villa off their own park in the first half should give them cause for some confidence that they can get a result at Craven Cottage on Monday night. If Harry Redknapp can pick up – and fire-up – the players after the Villa defeat, Rangers have a decent chance of taking advantage of any complacency that might have crept in for the hosts after their win at Spurs eased any relegation worries that they might have had.

“I’m finding this one particularly tough to call. A home win is the most likely result, statistically speaking, but I get the impression that this Rangers side are not ready to throw in the towel just yet and might just be more up for this one than the hosts. I think Rangers will be relegated this season – but not before they’ve given us fans reason to dream that another great escape might still be on the cards. It’s such a shame because I am finally beginning to feel that this QPR team under Redknapp is good enough to compete in the Premier League. But it was always going to take something fairly special to get Rangers out of the deep hole they were in when he took over, and it’s now looking like a case of too little too late. Anyway, since I’ve absolutely no idea how this will turn out, I might as well break the monotony of my normally pessimistic predictions and go with the heart for once.”

Prediction: Fulham 1 QPR 2

First Scorer: Samba

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Photo: Action Images

ozranger added 11:56 - Apr 1 You put such hope into our eyes and minds Clive. Let's hope that the team just doesn't blow it away. Also, Harry has fiddled with his lineup each game, so one wonders what surprises he has for us this match. We can only pray.
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thehat added 13:45 - Apr 1 This time next week we could be one point behind Villa and Wigan and two behind Sunderland with six to play. Or we could be virtually relegated. No pressure on tonights game then..........
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TacticalR added 17:03 - Apr 1 The irony is that both O’Neill and Di Canio are considered motivational managers, it's just that a lot of people think the fire has gone out of O’Neill. Having said that, it will be interesting to see what style of football Di Canio actually plays. You make a good point about whether Di Canio can motivate millionaires. The higher up the footballing tree the players are, and the more in control their own destiny ('self-sufficient men' in Joey Barton's phrase), the more the players need to be motivated in a creative way. With an ex-player like Laudrup appearing weekly on our TV screens we can see that some of the top players are very thoughtful. Stage-managed confrontation and crude intimidation just don't cut it. If they did John Sitton would have won the European Cup by now.

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themodfather added 17:14 - Apr 1 you have to time the sacking right...reading and mackems have given their new men ltd chance to turn it around. adkins is there to bring em back up. we kept hughes far too long, it was clear to see we were not performing under him and bottom.
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