QPR’s budget summer recruitment drive is underway with the free transfer capture of our former Northern Ireland international Paul Smyth from Leyton Orient.

Facts

Paul Smyth is a 25-year-old (26 in September) striker or winger from Belfast. A diminutive figure, he’s either 5ft or 5ft 8ins tall, depending on whether you believe his Wikipedia or Soccerbase profiles.

Smyth burst onto the scene in his homeland, making his debut at Linfield as an 18-year-old in 2015/16, scoring five goals in his first six appearances. He scored another eight goals the following season finishing the campaign with three trophies (league title, Irish Cup, County Antrim Shield) and a host of individual honours including the Ulster Young Player of the Year award. He scored 14 times in 22 appearances in total for Linfield. That attracted attention from EFL clubs, and QPR won the race for his signing in August 2017 encouraged by Andy Belk who had worked with the Northern Irish FA as an analyst before switching to QPR where he is now head of recruitment.

At QPR, Ian Holloway gave him his debut in a New Year’s Day clash at home to Cardiff, where he scored a fine solo winner at the Loft End in a 2-1 victory. He played a further 14 times for Rangers that year, scoring a brilliant goal against Sheff Wed, and also scored on his international debut for Northern Ireland in a 2-1 friendly win at home to South Korea four minutes from time.

A mixture of injuries, and Ian Holloway being replaced by Steve McClaren, killed his progress in W12. Just five appearances for the R’s, four of them from the bench and three of those in the League Cup, preceded a loan at League One Accrington where he scored three times in 11 starts and four sub appearances including a memorable effort in a 2-2 draw at division big-boys Sunderland.

Mark Warburton’s arrival reignited the careers of several young players McClaren had ignored completely or run into the ground, but not for Smyth. He spent Warburton’s first campaign on loan in League One with Wycombe, whose manager Gareth Ainsworth has now moved to reunite with the player back at QPR. That despite availability (14 starts and seven sub appearances) and goals (just the one, on debut against Bolton) being an issue for him at Adams Park.

There were four sub appearances for Warburton’s QPR under lockdown conditions at the start of 2020/21, but Smyth was then farmed out on loan again to first Charlton (two goals in eight starts and six sub appearances) and then back to Accrington (three goals in 15 starts and six sub appearances). Released on a free that summer he signed permanently at Leyton Orient in League Two where his availability, while initially affected by a nasty punctured lung injury, has improved. He made 26 appearances for them in the first season scoring four, and then really hit his straps in 2022/23 with 42 appearances and ten (often spectacular) goals from left wing as the O’s won the title and promotion into League One, once more making him one of the lower league’s hotter prospects.

QPR have subsequently moved to re-sign the player on a free transfer, awarding him a three-year contract.

Reaction

“It genuinely feels like I have been out on loan for two years. I had a brilliant season with Leyton Orient and the interest was there with QPR and I just had to get it done. I want to give it a chance again in the Championship. I couldn’t turn it down. I have been here before, I know what it’s like and I have a point to prove to myself. I want this. I want to show what I can do. The best thing for me during my first spell at QPR was to go out on loan and try to get that game-time and that experience. The gaffer trusted me at Wycombe, he gave me that opportunity to flourish and to be myself. That’s what I did while I was there, so with him being here it was a no brainer. I know what he’s like and how he wants to play, and that fits me to a tee.” -Paul Smyth

”Paul was one of the outstanding talents in League Two last season. He was a big reason why Orient won the league and why they were so potent going forward. When he left Wycombe there was still development work to do and now I believe he’s getting close to the finished article which is one heck of an attacking talent. He’s quick, gets crosses in, makes things happen, and he’s multi-positional too, which is a big advantage for us. I think he’s at home on that right-hand side where he’s getting at fullbacks, getting crosses in, and chipping in with goals but equally he can do that on the left and I know from our time together at Wycombe that he can play down the middle as well. He’s got a young family now which I believe has added to his maturity. We are going to see the best of Paul Smyth - maybe three or four years ago it was just a little early to make his mark in this division but I am sure he is going to do that now. There are two things I want this season; I want exciting, attacking football and I want players to give absolutely everything - in training, in games, in wearing a QPR shirt every day, whether that’s here at the new training ground, at Loftus Road, or on our travels. They have got to give absolutely everything. That’s what the fans have asked for, and that’s what I demand as a manager. Paul epitomises that, he’s an exciting talent and he will always give 100%.” - Gareth Ainsworth

Opinion

How’s this for joined-up thinking?

In August 2017 QPR completed the signing of 19-year-old attacker Paul Smyth from Linfield. It’s a signing that’s been driven by analyst Andy Belk, who’d worked for the Northern Irish FA before coming to QPR and has since climbed to become the club’s head of recruitment, as the club looks to move more in the direction of analytics and data which has served others well in recruiting on a challenged budget. Smyth’s first manager in W12 is Ian Holloway, who likes him a lot. He gives him a debut over Christmas at home to Cardiff, where he scores a memorable winner, and another very skilful goal follows in a home whitewash of Sheff Wed.

By the end of the season Holloway and his assistant Marc Bircham have succeeded in integrating several promising youngsters into their team — Smyth has been joined by Ryan Manning who had been ignored by all QPR’s managers prior to Olly, Bright Osayi-Samuel who Gary Penrice brought down from Blackpool, and the prodigiously talented Ebere Eze who is a Les Ferdinand/Chris Ramsey/Paul Hall project. But another managerial change is in the offing. Les Ferdinand and Lee Hoos didn’t appoint Holloway in the first place and his behaviour at games like Millwall A and Brentford H has alarmed the CEO. For Les, it was actually Holloway choosing to make half a dozen changes (including dropping Smyth) after the performance and victory against Sheff Wed that was something of a final straw — the wild, often unfathomable team selections had become too much, and QPR followed that 4-2 victory with a 2-1 loss at home to Preston.

In came Steve McClaren, again not a Les or Lee appointment. QPR were at their best in 2013/14 when McClaren was overseeing things and bringing him back to the club had been “an itch that Tony Fernandes needed to scratch” ever since. McClaren, whose first act as England manager was to get his teeth done, is a PR man who has talked himself into some of football’s best jobs despite an up and down track record. Yes, he’d done well at Rangers previously, but such was Harry Redknapp’s level of disinterest in managing the club at that point, and the quality of squad available to him, it wasn’t hard to improve matters — QPR would beat McClaren’s Derby side with ten men in the play-off final that May. McClaren had spent the closing months of 2017/18 wangling himself into the position. When Sky showed a late season 2-2 at Fulham — QPR merely midtable cannon fodder for the real story of the Cottagers’ promotion push — McClaren appeared as studio guest and relentlessly turned the conversations back to QPR and how much he knew about all of their players.

“Always been a coach, problems start when you make him the manager” is the long held cliché about the Hair Island, and that was, in theory, perfect for the set up at Loftus Road. The signings would be done from above, through the director of football model, and the manager would actually be the head coach. Of course the reality is starkly different. The first thing McClaren did was reject all the signings that had been lined up for that summer, many of whom were from lower divisions and he didn’t believe would step up. This left the team woefully short for a start to the campaign which featured four quickfire defeats including a 7-1 at West Brom. He then demanded, and was given, four senior players on loan who he dubbed his “team of men”. The young players he was supposed to be developing through his mythical coaching abilities were, the supremely talented Eze apart, jettisoned entirely. Manning went to Rotherham on loan, and Bright was restricted to occasional late substitute appearances to the anger of Hoos in particular. When McClaren’s successor Mark Warburton subsequently found both players to be key men in his team, it left the club nursing a couple of awkward contract situations that ended with them both leaving for pennies. Smyth, meanwhile, spent the back half of a season, in which QPR won four of 23 matches, on loan at Accrington, scoring three goals.

While Warburton quickly corrected McClaren’s errors with Manning and BOS, he wasn’t so keen on Smyth. Loan spells with Wycombe, Charlton and Accrington once more followed before he was released. Three appointments down the line and QPR have a manager who does like Paul Smyth again, and so they’re bringing him back from the Leyton Orient side they released him to originally. And no doubt if Gareth Ainsworth starts this season badly and gets the sack we’ll appoint his polar opposite who won’t like Paul Smyth and we’ll be picking the fucking phone up to Accrington for a third time.

This is what happens when you not only change manager so often, not only change from one type and style of manager to somebody completely different so often, but also allow that person passing through to dictate the club’s transfer policy to such a large extent. It shouldn’t be happening in the modern game anyway, it certainly shouldn’t be happening at a club that purports to be running a development model with a director of football, but you only need look at the recruitment and retention over the years to know that’s exactly what’s been going on here. No algorithms turn up Dom Ball.

In QPR’s defence, one of the key problems with Smyth first time around was he couldn’t get fit to play. Injuries plagued his progress. That should be ringing alarm bells all over the new Heston training ground after the way the 2022/23 season collapsed amidst a hail of absences, some genuine some less so. But, after a bad start at Brisbane Road where he suffered a collapsed lung, Smyth made 35 starts and seven sub appearances last season. He also scored ten times out wide, some of them absolutely spectacular, in a promoted side. Picking up the best players from teams further down the league ladder, and doing it on the cheap, is the QPR of old and is one way we can potentially get out of the tight spot we’re currently in finance and FFP wise. Several Orient fans have been put out by his “I feel like I’ve been out on loan for two years” comment given how they managed his injuries and provided a platform, and QPR being able to get him out on the field consistently (more consistently than when he was last here, more consistently than several examples here last season) will be key to the success of this one.

The situation and budget we’re now working with and to is markedly different this summer than it has been for many a year. The £25m loss we recorded pushing for promotion in 21/22 appeared in our accounts released in February. Under the league’s FFP rules QPR are allowed to lose £39m over any rolling three-year period and while there are deductibles that don’t count (Swiss Ramble tends to knock £4.5m off for these on average) having a £25m loss in your cycle for the next three sets of accounts is a significant millstone. At the moment the £4.5m loss recorded for the season we sold Ebere Eze is also in the rolling reporting period, so we’re fine, but that will roll out upon the release of our accounts in February 2025 while the £25m loss remains in. At that point the three-year rolling period will be the £25m loss, whatever we’ve just lost in the disastrous Beale/Critchley/Ainsworth season which we’ll find out this coming February, and whatever we’re about to lose in this coming 23/24 campaign. In short we’re going to need to have a very frugal year, with a small loss, and without a significant transfer fee received for somebody like Ilias Chair it’s going to be very difficult to wrestle the losses down from £25m the season before last to somewhere back around the £5m mark for the one coming up. You’ve already seen this summer Stefan Johansen, whose three-year contract as the club’s top earner was one of the follies that drove the £25m loss more than most, released a year early, and Rob Dickie sold for whatever we can get for him rather than losing him for free next summer. Lyndon Dykes renewing his contract was a pleasant surprise, and his commitment to the cause over the last few months puts plenty of others to shame, but the situation we’re in that feels like simply securing a better transfer fee for him.

Whether you thought Paul Smyth was any good when he was here last or not, has improved significantly at Orient or not, people are going to need to get their heads round this: the signings we make to replenish the squad are mostly going to be of the profile, standard and most importantly cost of this one. An added bonus with Smyth is we spoke a lot last season about having players here who actually wanted to be here rather than treating the club we love as a stepping stone to supposedly better things with apparently bigger clubs. We lack that sort of fight and pride and effort at the moment, provided by players for whom QPR is the big move in their career, and Smyth is so keen to play here he’s now made the move twice. In fact, we hear he’s actually returning to W12 on a deal less lucrative than the one newly promoted Orient offered him to stay there and play for them in League One.

He also provides something else this team sorely lacks — pace. QPR have been painfully slow since Osayi-Samuel left, and it’s a big part of the reason they’re so easy to play against. Another is they’re piss weak, with no bite or edge or needle or aggression. Ainsworth would also like to bring another QPR player from that Holloway era, Josh Scowen, back to the club this summer if he can — once again a player Holloway liked, McClaren didn’t, Eustace did, Warburton didn’t, and now we’re back to Ainsworth does and no doubt whoever replaces him won’t, because this is just how we operate. A one-year contract extension signed at Wycombe in April perhaps complicates that one.

Nevertheless, it’s pretty clear what sort of side Ainsworth is going to try and put together on the pitiful budget he’s got to work with here this summer. It needs pace down the sides, it needs nastiness in midfield (come on Sunderland, how much for Luke O’Nien?), it now apparently has its big guy up front with Lyndon Dykes tied down, and they’re just going to make us as unpleasant and awkward to play against as they possibly can with what they’ve got available. It’s going to be a slog, exacerbated further by the news that having spent May pissing about with friendlies, charity games and kick abouts the pitch renovations now won’t be ready for August 5 and so we start with Watford A, Cardiff A, the best League One promoted team at home, Southampton A and Boro A. Wholehearted commitment and pugnacious determination is going to be a key asset.

In that environment, and if he can continue to stay fit, Paul Smyth might not be a terrible idea.

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bob566 added 01:13 - Jun 28 Good signing. Love signing irish lads. Normally a good work ethic and grounded. However I did say masterson was a masterstroke and that didn't happen.
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nomar added 14:41 - Jun 28 I also like the signing. Exactly right that this is the type of player we need, a guy who genuinely wants to be here and considers this a step up in his career. Not some Premier League cast off who really couldn’t care less about being here and for whom the only highlights of the season were trying to find a nice spot on the pitch to lie down on and spend the next four months getting massages on a Saturday afternoon, and sampling the London nightlife on that same Saturday night.

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snanker added 10:31 - Jul 2 A sensible signing for once ! Always gives a 100% for the shirt thrilled to be back at the club and knows the manager well. What could go wrong ?
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qprninja added 15:21 - Jul 3 "No algorithms turn up Dom Ball." Lol.
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