Southampton are changing their manager again, QPR are rotating their team to death, so it’d be a brave match previewer to try and call tonight’s meeting at Loftus Road.

QPR (5-3-5 DWLWLL 15th) v Southampton (2-6-5 WDDLLL 21st)

Mercantile Credit Trophy >>> Wednesday November 5, 2025 >>> Kick Off – 19.45 >>> Weather – Bright and breezy >>> Loftus Road, London, W12

The will Will Still still be Southampton manager by the time we get to play them concern was settled with a Saturday night bloodletting. Now it’s all eyes on Liam Manning at Norwich.

Difficult to blame the Saints for swinging the axe after a 2-0 home loss to Preston Knob End. That’s almost a sackable in itself, but in the context of two wins all season with the squad Still had at his disposal and a summer outlay approaching £50m (sales of nearly three times that, because of course) it’s tantamount to a war crime.

Still - or whoever represents him - did a terrific job of PRing himself into the reckoning for some big jobs in the UK on the back of his work in France, with the usual podcast round and “talks well” appearance on Monday Night Football, but hasn’t been able to back it up with his first swing in the British leagues at a club which really has everything going for it in terms of resources and facilities. Southampton should not be fourth bottom of the Championship.

There are one or two trendy “underlying numbers” that give the same cause for concern I had about Ipswich at the weekend. Prior to this midweek round Southampton have had more of the ball than any other team in the division, a higher xG (22.99) than any other side except Coventry (28.76), and more shots on goal (187) than any side except Cov (222) and Ipswich (198).

We saw what happened here on Saturday against a team that was below us in the league and hadn’t won away from home but was posting those kinds of numbers. They can be a little ominous. The potential to cut loose, combined with QPR’s love of a charitable donation, can be irresistible for a team desperately needing a win.

However, unlike Ipswich, Southampton haven’t even been showing many signs of life to me. I watched one of their two league wins so far, against Wrexham on the opening day, and they were lucky to even get a point never mind three. I watched them again at Bristol City last week and thought they were a joke – easily and deservedly beaten 3-1. But Southampton, at the end of the day, could start with Adam Armstrong and Cameron Archer up front tonight. Are you ever going to be resting easy on QPR’s prospects in a game where that’s the case?

If the Saints weren’t playing QPR this midweek I’d be backing them to lose. I’d be saying this is a joke club that thinks sacking another manager will cure all that ails them when in fact the problems run far deeper. Of the six managers to have picked a team under Sport Republic’s ownership of Southampton, only Russell Martin has been able to win more than two games. Still’s two league wins actually puts him above Nathan Jones, Ruben Selles, Simon Rusk and Ivan Juric who only managed one each. This is a club that since its play-off final win against Leeds in May 2024 have won four of 51 league games. They’ve won three of their last 32 away league games, and conceded 62 goals doing it. This is not a club where the manager is the problem, and sacking him isn’t going to solve anything.

However, they are playing QPR this midweek. And so I do just wonder… If I’d been listening to somebody from the Jake Humphrey’s High Performance Podcast, who basically ran his own PR campaign to talk himself into a job here (amazing we didn’t bite, really), for the last five months, and then suddenly he was gone, I’d probably be in the mood to cut loose and party on Wednesday night. New manager bounce? Not something we’re too familiar with a QPR, but might get a horrible introduction to this evening.

At best it makes Southampton unpredictable. I had this down as a home win until that news came through on Saturday. I’m not sure I do now.

QPR are pretty difficult to call themselves. From six unbeaten to three defeats in four – as was, is and seemingly ever shall be. Streaky British team hires streaky French manager, you’ll never guess what happens next.

The general consensus is that Julien Stéphan erred with his team selection at the weekend.

When I first started writing LFW (during the war) I was in my early 20s and used to be a right smug, self-satisfied twat (shut it you) who thought he knew all about football and tactics and formations because he’d read a few books, written a few articles, been on the Guardian podcast and conquered the whole sport three times over with a Castel Di Sangro team he picked up in Serie C2 on Championship manager. Goran Pandev, Boy-Boy Mosia, Stephen Schumacher, man we had some adventures together. My more humble default position with managers these days is they probably know the sport better than me, they know their players and their squad better than me, they know who’s quietly injured, who’s been unwell, who’s had a row with the missus, and all these intangibles.

I do agree Stéphan got it wrong at the weekend. The selection of a teenage left back against the wingers Ipswich possess looked suicidal when it was made and turned out to be exactly that. The comparison drawn in the Crown & Sceptre when the lineups were revealed was Hevertton Santos v Ben Doak, but even Santos managed to get through half an hour without shitting the bed. Still, if you think we were a Rhys Norrington Davies away from competing with Ipswich I’m afraid you’re going to be disappointed. The winger that beat him for the first goal cost more than our entire team. It may not always work out that way but they’re meant to beat us 4-1, and this time they did.

If you think we’re going to stop rotating the team, particularly in these three game weeks, I’ve also got bad news for you. Only Watford (44) have made more changes to their starting 11 than QPR this season (43). That’s going to drive traditionalist mad in any case, and even progressives are going to start getting annoyed and giving it “pick your best team, worry about next week next week” if it keeps resulting in defeats. But that is one of the reasons Stéphan was hired here. Rangers put it about that they were very, very keen to have a manager with experience of three games weeks. The conclusion drawn was we were so poor at them last year, and the squad so knackered by the end, because Cifuentes mismanaged them and didn’t rotate enough. Stéphan, who has Champions League and Europa League experience at Rennes, was brought here precisely because he rotates the squad in three game weeks.

Stéphan was also brought here because he had a record of developing young players into big sellable assets, particularly strikers and wide attacking players. The recruitment has loaded his squad with exactly that – Richard Kone, Rumarn Burrell, Koki Saito, Kwame Poku, Harvey Vale, Karamoko Dembele… He is playing the 4-4-2 formation he used in France, particularly at Strasbourg, forgoing possession in favour of hitting teams on transition. That is not this club’s publicly stated game model. While it’s getting results, as it did through September, nobody will care. But it’ll be interesting to hear the mood music if the form subsides.

One of the reasons 4-4-2 went out of football is you can get outnumbered with it all over the pitch. Most teams play with a form of three in midfield, which can swamp and overwhelm a middle two – particularly if you’re trying to play a ball player in there (Madsen). Your full backs can get isolated and doubled up on, particularly if your wingers are poor defensively (all of our wingers bar Smyth). Your centre backs, likewise, often outnumbered by teams that play one up and two or three off them. I’ve enjoyed watching us play like this, but it went out of the sport for a reason. Not a particularly original point, Dave Mc makes it all the time on the WLS podcast, but it’s not unusual to pick up results after totally changing your approach. The test comes when opposition scouting reports land and teams adapt.

Teams, seemingly, are adapting, just as we go out of a set of 12 opening fixtures we felt were quite kind, and into the next 12 that – by definition – must be more daunting. This is all without addressing the increasingly problematic goalkeeping situation, which I’m going to save some material for and see what happens to Paul Nardi tonight and on Saturday (spoiler, go and read what Greg Spires said about the Frenchman when we signed him).

Big night this. For both clubs.

Links >>> Still slides away – Oppo Profile >>> Bardsley’s 25-yard howitzer – History >>> Bell in charge – Referee >>> Southampton Official Website >>> Southampton Echo – Local Press >>> Ugly Inside – Forum >>> Saints Marching – Blog >>> Saints Analysis – Blog >>> Football Martin – YouTube Channel >>> Saints Web – Message Board

Below the fold

Team News: The main positive from Saturday was a half hour run out for Kwame Poku, his first appearance since the opening day of the season. The hope was that meant he might be good for some more minutes in the remaining games this week but the news is now that he’s suffered a setback in training and won’t be involved here. This injury is “not serious” and he’s expected to be back soon, so look forward to seeing him some time around FA Cup third round weekend then. Amadou Mbengue’s rest at the weekend didn’t stop him picking up a sixth yellow card of the season in stoppage time, so he’s now four shy of a two-match ban. After Saturday’s home trouncing by Ipswich expect potential recalls for Mbengue, Rhys Norrington-Davies, Jonathan Varane and Koki Saito among others. Any prize from the middle shelf for a sighting of Jake Clarke-Salter. Ziyad Larkeche and Joe Walsh are the long term absentees.

Southampton reacted to their own weekend home humbling by sacking manager Will Still, and 32-year-old Tonda Eckert will be in the dugout for this one having left his job as assistant manager at Genoa to lead the Saints U21 side in the summer. They have also moved to re-sign former midfielder Oriel Romeu as a free agent. The 34-year-old last turned out for Spanish side Girona in May.

The Saints’ ropey start to the season was compounded last week by the news star midfielder Shea Charles has suffered a significant hamstring injury and will likely not be seen again this side of Christmas. Brazilian midfielder Welington serves game two of a three-match ban for putting the boot in at Blackburn. Ross Stewart was dead on arrival from Sunderland in summer 2023 and that condition hasn’t improved since – he has started just seven league games for the club in that time and is again sidelined for “a significant period of time”. Fandab Edozie and Elias Jelert are both out for a month, Cameron Archer missed the weekend defeat with an ankle injury and is doubtful again along with Ryan Fraser. Apart from that, they’re a picture of health.

Elsewhere: Tuesday’s results in the Mercantile Credit Trophy leave QPR one place and one point away from the hallowed ground of 16th.

Several of the teams we tipped for good seasons are starting to recover from surprisingly slow starts. Birmingham have three wins from four and back-to-back 4-0 successes, adding Millwall last night to their Portsmouth whitewash at the weekend. Derby have won four in a row following last night’s 2-1 home victory over Hull. Ipswich are unbeaten in three following last night’s draw at home to Watford.

For others, the news isn’t so positive. Marti Cifuentes thought he had a much needed win at Leicester last night when he led 1-0 in stoppage time and Boro were reduced to ten men but the Foxes contrived to ship an equaliser and now have one win in ten. Bristol City’s bright start risks being derailed by a shocking injury list which leaves them with just 12 fit outfield players and they followed up a weekend humping at Stoke with a 1-0 home loss against Blackburn last night.

A few of the division’s surprise packages show no sign of wavering. Stoke, who won 5-1 at the weekend, won 3-0 at Oxford last night. Perhaps we’ll have to start believing in Mark Robins a little bit more – his two teams are the top two in the league following Coventry’s 3-1 homer against struggling Sheff Utd. Charlton continued their play-off push with a last-gasp 1-0 victory at home to West Brom which Nathan Jones took in his stride and kept fairly low key.

Second bottom and six defeats in a row, we wait to see if Norwich can snap out of their funk this evening with a trip to already relegated Sheff Wed. Wrexham beat Coventry at the weekend and go to Portsmouth tonight as they continue to find their Championship feet. Preston Knob End v Swanselona rounds out the midweek list.

Referee: Sheffield official James Bell is in charge here, just as he was for our visit to St Mary’s under Gareth Ainsworth in August 2023. That 2-1 victory is one of five wins from five appointments Southampton have had with this official. Details.

Form

- QPR and Southampton have lost the same amount of games this season (five each) despite a gap of six places and six points in Rangers’ favour.

- One would think it fair to assume a raft of changes to QPR’s team will again be forthcoming for this three-game week, and after the result here on Saturday. Only Watford (44) have made more changes to their starting 11 this year than QPR (43).

- Southampton sacked manager Will Still after a 2-0 home loss to Preston at the weekend. It leaves one of the division’s promotion favourites fourth bottom of the table with just two wins to their name, one of those on the opening day. The Saints have lost their last three, won none of their last five, and only have one victory in nine games coming into this one.

- Away from home Southampton have won one of seven games this season (D3 L3) in the league. Going back through last season into their last campaign at this level the Saints have won three of their last 32 away league games. They have lost 21 of those 32 games and conceded 63 goals in the process.

- No team has taken fewer than Southampton’s nine points from a possible 36 since the second weekend of the season. Their only win in that time was Sheff Utd away, who were bottom of the table at the time.

- Southampton have dropped 12 points from winning positions this year – the division’s worst record. They have kept only two clean sheets this year, both in 0-0 draws at home to Swansea and Portsmouth.

- This is by no means anything new at St Mary’s, however. Since victory over Leeds in the play-off final of 2024 Southampton have won four of their 51 league games.

- Since Sport Republic’s takeover of Southampton in January 2022 Still is actually the second best performing manager with two victories behind Russell Martin with 27 (26 in the Championship). Nathan Jones, Ruben Selles and Ivan Juric all registered a solitary victory in that time while Simon Rusk didn’t even manage that.

- That all said, much like Saturday’s Ipswich stats, only Coventry (28.76) have a higher xG than Southampton (22.99) and only Coventry 222 and Ipswich 198 have had more shots than the Saints 187 so far. No team in the league averages more possession than Southampton’s 59.4%.

- Still’s sacking means 52 of the 92 league clubs have changed their manager at least once in the last year.

- QPR have scored just one goal from a set piece this season. Only Swansea (zero) have scored fewer from dead balls. By contrast, the R’s have conceded from seven, only bottom placed Sheff Wed (ten) have let in more that way.

- Only Sheff Wed (25 goals conceded) and Sheff Utd (23) have a worse defence than QPR (21). Only Sheff Wed (13) have conceded more first half goals than QPR (12).

- George Hirst’s weekend rampage means no team has conceded more headed goals than QPR this season (7). The next worse is Derby, Swansea and Ipswich who have all shipped five.

- Jack Supple tells us the last time a Championship side scored two direct free kicks in the same game was Cardiff away at Birmingham in May 2021 (four and a half years ago) when Harry Wilson scored two as part of a hat trick in a 4-0 Bluebirds win.

- Rumarn Burrell is now QPR’s joint top scorer with four goals after scoring three in his last four appearances. He joins Richard Kone at the top of the R’s scoring charts, although Kone now has one in eight after three in his first three starts.

- These sides have only shared a league once in the last ten years. The last two campaigns they’ve been in the same division (23/24 Championship and 13/14 Premier League) Southampton have completed a double. QPR’s last win was in March 2013 at St Mary’s when Loic Remy and Jay Bothroyd scored in a surprise 2-1 victory. The R’s haven’t won this fixture since a 4-1 televised success in September 2008 when Dexter Blackstock (2), Damion Stewart and Patrick Agyemang all netted. Southampton have won their last three visits to Loftus Road.

Prediction

In our Prediction League for 2025/26 we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. QPR_Hibs won last season’s Prediction League at a canter and is lending his thoughts to this year’s previews –it’s JB007007 extended his lead at the top of this year’s table to six points at the weekend...

“There’s a famous ‘Colemanballs’ quote from the late Peter Lorenzo: ‘Hodge scored for Forest after 22 seconds, totally against the run of play.’ Hilarious, but you kind of understand what he meant. I had to watch the match highlights (for research purposes only) to see that just one minute and seven seconds had passed when Scottish International striker George Hirst headed Ipswich in front on Saturday and I think possibly only one QPR player had touched the ball at that point. Sure, Nardi and Esquerdhina will (correctly) bear the brunt of the fans’ criticism but the whole team performance was shambolic. I thought Burrell was the best of an extremely poor bunch. And we seem to have reverted to the old short goal kick/play ourselves into trouble routine.

“It’s another three-game week so expect multiple changes. Hopefully RND will be reinstalled at left back against Southampton on Wednesday night, though I fear that we are stuck with Nardi in goal until January. Mbengue must replace Steve Cook, and Poku or Smyth will start on the right wing to give us some much-needed pace. Personally, I would give Vale a shot at playing ‘10’ either behind Kone or Burrell, as I feel he is wasted (and playing poorly) out on the wing and the two strikers thing isn’t working.

“Southampton have been so disappointing that they sacked Will Still at the weekend, after a home defeat to Preston. They have had six draws already this season and a somehow have a worse goal difference than QPR. However, their squad looks jam-packed with attacking players in the form of Shea Charles, Cameron Archer, Adam Armstrong, Ross Stewart, Finn Azaz, Ryan Fraser and Samuel (Fandab) Edozie. Ex-Ranger Ryan Manning and handsome Ronnie Edwards also feature. Unfortunately for us, the Southampton fightback starts here, and I can only envisage a defeat.”

QPR_Hibs Prediction: QPR 0-2 Southampton. No scorer.

LFW’s Prediction: QPR 1-1 Southampton. Scorer – Rumarn Burrell

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Pictures - Ian Randall Photography

TacticalR added 13:31 - Nov 5 Thanks for your preview. If Southampton have watched our game against Ipswich they will have told their players to flop down around our box at every opportunity to get free kicks. Despite their indifferent form they do have players who have given us trouble over the years, such as Adam Armstrong and Ryan Manning. Let's hope their xG-based renaissance/no manager bounce doesn't begin tonight.

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