QPR's pragmatic/attritional/horrible approach to the Stoke away game at the weekend got the result it was designed for, but there'll be expectations for a lot more from Julian Stéphan's side away to second bottom Oxford this evening.

Oxford (5-8-13 LLWLLD 23rd) v QPR (11-6-10 DLLWLD 11th)

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It’s fair to say QPR’s approach to the weekend draw at Stoke City has certainly divided opinion on our message board.

As I said in the match report, I hated a lot of what I saw in that game. The ridiculous situation we’ve got ourselves into as a sport where the goalkeeper is allowed to just sit down and call for a trainer to essentially enforce a mid-game break and extra team talk needs stamping out with a rule change, and it’s really disappointing to see us involved in shit like that. Likewise Esquerdinha rolling around in front of the away end apparently near death, only to then leap up and sprint off when the referee refuses to stop the game for him. I loathe this stuff. Loathe it.

Rangers passing stats were abysmal. I’ll just copy and paste them here, because frankly if professional footballers can’t pass the ball to each other then I’m not sitting here Tuesday morning and thinking of a million different ways to say “dogshit”. Stoke played 549 passes in this game with an accuracy north of 86%. QPR attempted 200 with an accuracy of just 58.5%. Bluntly, Rangers tried to pass the ball to each other less than half as often as Stoke did, and on the occasions the visitors did try and get the ball down and play they gave it away every other time they had it. Successful passes in the final third – Stoke 91, QPR 23

It's not the first time QPR have effectively surrendered all ambition to even keep the ball for a bit in the name of sitting deep and seeing out a point – there were similar grumbles and debates about a 0-0 draw at Sheffield United which over time has come to be seen as a better result than it was on the day. The key factor in both games was Rangers didn’t lose. It’s funny isn’t it, I’ve said this a few times but it’s often the fans who tell you in July and August that they’d “snatch your hand off for 16th now” who complain most vociferously when the 15 draws and 16 defeats that take you to that position play out. At Middlesbrough and Norwich it felt like the general consensus was we’d been far too open, far too easy to play through, and an Isaac Hayden-type was required to stodge things up a bit. Then at Bramall Lane and whatever we’re calling that monstrosity Stoke play in these days when we do go deep, narrow and defend a point, it’s a disgrace and an insult to the memory of Stan Bowles and all this stuff. In the end, us football fans just like a moan.

Julien Stéphan is currently grappling with a list of absentees that includes many of his best players, and his top scorer. People like Dembele, Smyth and Kolli were particularly poor at the weekend, but there’s not a lot of alternative to those guys at the moment and they likely wouldn’t be playing if Saito, Poku, Chair, Burrell etc were available. Most teams in this league would struggle with eight or nine injuries to first team players and the most likely answer to all the questions and criticism at the moment is we’re just not quite good enough with all these players missing. The manager has to find a way to get results regardless, and he did that at the weekend. Once again, this makes it hugely important that the club asks itself very hard questions about why the squad has been stricken with such lengthy injury lists in each of the last two seasons, rather than trotting out stats and data to try and prove it’s not a thing. It is a thing, it’s there for all to see, and whatever their ambitions are for next season will remain unfulfilled if we get to January 2027 and there are this many first team players missing again.

If they ever let me in the building again to talk to Stéphan a second time I’d love to hear his thinking behind some of the decisions being made at the moment. It doesn’t feel like the 4-4-2 he’s so tightly wedded to really suits us without Rumarn Burrell’s pace in behind – perhaps a reason Justin Obikwu has been recruited from Coventry. At £500k it’s a punchy pick up of a player who’s spent the last two seasons on loan at Grimsby and Lincoln, and not always in their sides either, but in amongst all the usual stuff about good age, development prospect, local lad etc is his pace. It’s great to see us deliberately trying to add more speed this year to a team that has previously been far too slow. Until he gets up to speed (sorry) though, is this front two working for the front two we’ve got available at the moment? Is the inverted winger thing working?

Stéphan has reached a lot of the same conclusions about this group of players as his predecessor - the possession-based, slow build up game model was quickly jettisoned in August after a nightmare start and under both the Frenchman and Marti Cifuentes Rangers haven’t now won a game in which they’ve had more possession since February last year at home to Blackburn. Even Sheff Wed technically had more of the ball than us at Loftus Road.

That makes opponents like tonight’s very awkward, because QPR are expected to go and dominate the ball and win the game against the side currently second bottom and five points adrift of safety. The two encounters at Loftus Road since Oxford were promoted back to this level have been among the worst football games I’ve ever seen, with both teams determinedly booting the ball back to each other so they can try and sit deep and then spring counter attacks. Desperately needing a win here last season, Cifuentes beefed up to a three-man midfield of Varane, Colback and Sam Field and was rewarded with a 3-1 win (Rangers have only scored three goals away from home once since). It was Field’s best game of the season and having remained an unused sub at the weekend I’m interested to see if there’s a role for him here tonight (he scored twice against the U’s at Loftus Road as well).

I could sort of see the pragmatic ‘needs must’ element to Saturday’s slop. Stoke are a half decent side this year, currently only a point and place outside the play-offs and with the league’s best defence. That was not an easy result to get, and people like Jimmy Dunne poured their heart and soul into making sure it was achieved. Not everybody agreed. It’ll be a much harder sell to people if we go and do the same thing tonight. The pressure’s on to not only get a good result, but also approach the game in a more positive manner.

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Team News: While Julian Stéphan has been quick to mention the hectic schedule the team has faced and the effort expended against a Premier League side across 120 minutes in the FA Cup, he has been rather slower to make substitutions to offset that. Just three of the five made at Stoke on Saturday, and two of those in the 86th minute, no changes at West Brom until the 73rd minute, no changes at Portsmouth until 71, only four used against Norwich and nothing until the hour… At Stoke on Saturday, Sam Field, Kieran Morgan and Ronnie Edwards were all left unused and I guess the big question at Oxford is which of those might get some involvement. Only Harvey Vale (back) of the injured masses is back for this which means Rangers will again miss Rumarn Burrell (hamstring), Kwame Poku (hamstring), Koki Saito (hamstring) Jonathan Varane (knee), Ziyad Larkeche (knee), Jake Clarke-Salter (ankle) and Ilias Chair (unspecified). Michael Frey is no longer involved amidst rumours of a move. Liam Morrison is on the cusp of signing for Aberdeen on loan. Giant forward Justin Obikwu has signed from Coventry (via a loan at Lincoln) but will only join up with the squad after this game.

Oxford dismissed Gary Rowett before the January transfer window opened in large part because he wanted some experienced Championship heads to come in and fight the relegation battle with him while the club’s ownership wanted to stick with young, development signings. The first of those, Spurs loanee Jamie Donley, has made an inauspicious start to life here with a bad fall and shoulder injury forcing him out of the FA Cup tie at MK Dons after just 17 minutes. He joines Tyler Goodrham (ankle), Przemyslaw Placheta (vowel please, Carol), Nic Prelec (groin) and Hidde ter Avest (consonant please, Carol) on the sidelines.

Elsewhere: Eight games tonight other than our own, a list led by league leading Coventry at home to fourth placed Millwall, and the battle between this season’s two surprise play-off contenders Hull and Preston Knob End. Any slips there will open a door for third placed Ipswich who are at home to Bristol City or second placed Middlesbrough who make the glamourous trip to Stoke tomorrow.

The seventh-placed Potters lead a pack of play-off chasers that also includes Watford in eighth, two points back from the top six and with a very winnable homer against Portsmouth tomorrow. On the other side of Bristol City in ninth it’s Wrexham in tenth and they host Marti Cifuentes’ ailing Leicester side.

Down at the bottom Sheff Wed, 35 adrift with 60 left on the table, are at home to Birmingham but it’s Norwich, Portsmouth and Blackburn who Oxford will be eyeing most keenly. The U’s are now on 23 points, five adrift of safety, so very quickly need to start reeling in some of these sides. Norwich have 27 and can climb out of the bottom three for the first time in months with a win at West Brom tonight. Portsmouth (at Watford) and Blackburn (at Swansea) both have 28.

Charlton’s dramatic and controversial weekend win against Sheffield Red Stripe at The Valley has eased their relegation fears, and left both teams level on 32 points in the table. The Addicks host Derby tonight while Chris Wilder takes his team to Southampton tomorrow.

Referee: Championship newbie Will Finnie sat out the first three months of this season injured so still only has one QPR game to his name – a 1-0 loss at Coventry around this time last year. That’s in stark contrast to Oxford who he has refereed more than any other club – 17 appointments and counting in which the U’s have won eight, lost nine, and never drawn. Details.

Form

- Oxford have won one of their last nine games in all comps and two of their last 15, slumping to second bottom in the Championship and five points from safety. They’re without a win in four coming into this but have drawn the last two.

- Since the start of November, only Sheffield Wednesday (five) have picked up fewer points in the Championship than Oxford (11), winning just two out of 14 games in that time (D5 L7).

- QPR have won only one of their last six games having won five of the previous seven.

- QPR have two points from their last five away games and have won only one of eight matches on their travels (Blackburn A). Prior to that run the R’s had the best away record in the league with seven wins and only two defeats from 12 games going back to April.

- They are struggling for goals, or even shots on target, in those away games. QPR had two efforts on target in the weekend 0-0 at Stoke, both in stoppage time. That goes with three in 120 minutes at West Ham, none at all at West Brom where their goal was an OG and three at Portsmouth on Boxing Day. Julian Stephan’s team have scored one goal or fewer in each of their last ten away games and last scored two on their travels at Bristol City in October. They have scored three in an away game only once since doing so here last April – a 3-1 win at Wrexham in September.

- QPR arrested a poor Christmas run of a draw and two defeats with a 3-0 home win against struggling Sheff Wed. It means the R’s have won five of the last six games at Loftus Road, scoring 16 goals. That victory was a seventh home league win already, equalling or bettering the club’s totals in each of the last three seasons (seven in 24/25 and 23/24, six in 22/23).

- The 0-0 draw here with Bristol City at the weekend was Oxford’s first clean sheet in 16 games.

- Oxford have won only three home games so far. Only Blackburn (two) and Sheff Wed (zero) have won fewer. Derby (1-0), Ipswich and Southampton (both 2-1) are the sides to lose here so far.

- Oxford have scored more than two goals in a game only once all season – a 3-1 win at Bristol City in September. They have scored one goal or fewer in 18 of their 26 Championship games and failed to score at all on ten occasions. Only Sheff Wed (18), Portsmouth (22) and Blackburn (24) have scored fewer than the U’s 25 goals to this point.

- These sides fought out a dire 0-0 draw in the first meeting this season at Loftus Road on October 1. Oxford have failed to score in four of the last five meetings between the sides, and lost the other one 3-1 in this fixture last season.

- QPR won both meetings in 2024/25 in what were arguably Oxford’s two worst performances of the season. Rangers haven’t lost to the U’s since the infamous 4-1 at the Manor Ground in September 1998 which cost Ray Harford his job, although there have only been five meetings in the 28 years since then. The R’s have never won consecutive away games against the U’s.

- Oxford are without a win in their past 10 midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday) Championship games (D4 L6) since defeating Luton 3-2 in January 2025. QPR have won each of their previous three away league games played in midweek (Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday), last winning four in a row in August 1971.

- Oxford have only won one of their past eight league matches against London clubs (D3 L4), beating Millwall 1-0 away from home in January 2025.

- Spurs loanee Will Lankshear is the top scorer here with six in the league and one in the cup. Rumarn Burrell remains QPR’s top scorer with ten, the first R to reach double figures since Andre Gray in 2021/22, but he is now injured until at least March.

- Rayan Kolli is the first ever QPR player to score two goals as a substitute in two different games – Norwich H 24/25, Sheff Wed H 25/26. @JTSupple

Prediction

In our Prediction League for 2025/26 we’ll once again be handing out prizes for being top at Christmas and overall winner from The Art of Football - sample the merch from our sponsor’s newly extended QPR collection here. Monners was the big mover in the post-Stoke predictions, though he said he had “Catholic guilt” for correctly calling a dire 0-0. QPR_Hibs won last season’s Prediction League at a canter and is lending his thoughts to this year’s previews…

“The house where I grew up was fairly unremarkable. The interior décor was quite drab except for a bright yellow work surface in the kitchen. No one in our family really knew the correct term for the worktop, so we just called it the ‘yellow thing.’ ‘Have you seen my wallet?’ ‘Yeah, I think it’s on the yellow thing.’ This has become a phrase that I still use today. Whenever I visit my Mum or my Sister who now live in completely different houses, I may refer to the yellow thing when I actually mean the worktop.

“Similarly, where my partner works, they refer to a particular department as ‘Room 8.’ The story goes that there was an actual room number eight where that department used to be based, in a previous office many years before. I guess that most people would have phrases and words that they use that are technically incorrect but make sense to them. Perhaps shouting ‘Come on you Super Hoops’ when we are playing in that terrible pink and black monstrosity kit would be another example?

“After sitting through a stream of the away game at Stoke on Saturday, I checked the comments on the LFW match thread. Here is a quick summary for anyone who was fortunate enough to have been otherwise engaged – maybe watching paint dry, washing their hair or visiting IKEA with their other half. A bleak, turgid, awful, terrible game but a good away point was the consensus. I thought Madsen and Dunne were two of our better players but we were very poor with the little possession that we had, until the last five minutes when we managed to create a couple of chances. A game best forgotten.

“Whatever team we put out against Oxford, I just hope that they show a bit more desire and purpose to try to win the game. Walsh will surely start in goal. RND may have to be rested so a potential back four could be Mbengue, Dunne, Handsome Ronnie and Field. Hayden and Madsen were fine, if not spectacular, in midfield and I can’t see Julien dropping Dembele or Smyth with so few alternatives available. Bennie or Morgan may be given a run out in the ‘10’ behind Kone although Kolli will probably get the nod.

“Oxford sit second bottom of the league and are on a bad run of form. They also drew 0-0 on Saturday at home to Bristol City but the stats suggest a significantly more exciting game than ours was. This is a game that we can definitely win if we look like we can be bothered.”

QPR_Hibs Prediction: Oxford 0-2 QPR. First scorer – Nicolas Madsen

LFW’s Prediction: Oxford 0-1 QPR. Scorer – Richard Kone

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