Predictions Revisited - part 1 Friday, 28th May 2010 19:06 We look back on last Summer's predictions for League Two.
Each team is listed in the position that we felt they
would finish, with a snippet from our prediction for them, with a look back
at that to follow. Click on any team's name for that full prediction. Part 2
to follow by the weekend hopefully.
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So they'll
be up against it again this time round, and despite the fact that
there's still a fair bit of quality left within that squad, it's
impossible to look upon that squad as being as strong as it was last
year and therefore we can't see them finishing as high as they did
last time round. And if Benson was to depart early on, we'd have
serious reservations about them finishing where we have them down
to. I actually
thought I was being generous in my prediction when I wrote it,
almost to the extent of wanting this to be true rather than actually
thinking it to be so. After all, there was so much to admire about
Dagenham but deep down inside, I felt the only success that they'd
enjoy in Dagenham was from that annoying lass with the giggle on X
Factor. I was pleased to be wrong on both fronts, and this weekend
could see Dagenham complete a season that could even overshadow our
own in terms of being the League Two success story of the season.
John Still continues to do an outstanding job, doing in the right
way both in terms of football produced and doing so within a budget.
Had it not been for the season ending injury sustained against our
good selves Stuart Thurgood, then the Play Offs could have been
something just to settle for. Relegated
sides traditionally don't always do so well. History suggests that
out of the four sides that come down, more will struggle down here
than do well, and the lack of new signings of real quality will
hardly sweep away the clouds of disappointment that the relegation
brought with it. We have to go back and question the management too.
We feel there are big question marks over Thordarson's ability and
whilst Crewe are definitely most likely to stick with him over the
course of the season, it probably isn't in their best interest to do
so. Mid table only for the Alex. There wasn't
actually any point of Crewe for this past season. Despite a Play Off
campaign which seems to involve every side not involved in the
relegation battle, Crewe somehow managed to find themselves immune
from anything of interest at both ends of the table from start to
finish, and their fans must have been wishing for the end of the
season before we'd left Autumn. Right as we were in predicting this,
we were wrong in having faith in Thordarson's ability to hang around
long enough to keep Dario in the boardroom. Mind you, even Dario got
a bit of grief off their fans this season. Do their fans not realise
what he did in 1997 or whenever should be enough to keep exempt from
all criticism in 2010? Relegation
shouldn't be an issue. It'd be too easy to look at their avoidance
of relegation and cast them for something similar. But a push for
bigger and better things isn't on the menu. The embargo and
financial issues will play too much of a part to turn things round,
and last year's points penalty did them a slight favour in giving
themselves something to aim for all season long. Without that, I can
see them drifting through the last few weeks of the season with
safety assured giving a lowly position. A nice, safe, dull,
excitement lacking season beckons. We were
clearly right in our prediction here. We said relegation wouldn't be
an issue and it wasn't at any stage all season. It's impossible to
not respect the wonderful job that Eddie Howe did at Bournemouth
this season. With off the field issues dominating every report
accompanying them, they were written off at every stage with
"they'll fall away soon" as their limited squad got tested. Everyone
was proved wrong as they kept going, eventually overtaking ourselves
to finish 2nd. By all
accounts, Grimsby should have been relegated last season. Last time
out, they were dire and few could disagree with that. It'd been a
few years of decline but in any other season, they'd have been
dropping out of the Football League. After all, it was only the 30
point penalty that hit Luton Town which ensured that the Mariners
finished in 22nd place..... We think it will be a season of
transition for the Mariners. Not enough changes for them to start
challenging at the top end of the division but enough for their fans
to start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and have hopes
that 2010-11 might give them a chance to push on to the sort of
bigger and better things that their fans have been used to seeing
over the past 20 years or so. We had Mike
Newell down as being a better manager than he clearly was, and given
the vitriol he seems to attract amongst the Cod types, it seems we
were massively out on that score. It was a minor success story in
itself that Grimsby made it to the final game of the season with a
chance of survival given that they went so many months without
winning a game. But a late run of form should not detract for the
horrible mess that this club finds themselves in, and it sums up the
permanent decline that we often talk about when we predict clubs
with a history of playing at higher levels who find themselves as
permanent fixtures in the division formerly known as the Rochdale
Division. As it is, there'll be something of a Fish derby when they
take on Fleetwood in the Conference next season. Perhaps after all
these years, we were tipping the wrong side in Black and White
stripes to go down. Opinion
amongst the Macc fans is very much divided about the forthcoming
season. A recent poll had fans equally split between whether they
saw the Silkmen as relegation battlers or a midtable side, which
given the traditional pre-season optimism which affects pretty much
every side in the country, is a tad worrying. But we think they've
got more about them than that, and whisper it quietly a little bit
of faith in Keith Alexander to ensure that they'll finish a little
bit higher than last season's 20th placing. Just not a million miles
higher, but enough. Of course,
it would be remiss to look back on Macc's season without looking
back at Keith Alexander. Whenever we previewed one of his side's
forthcoming season, we used to go into Alexander bashing mode,
before eventually admitting through gritted teeth that we had just a
teeny weeny bit of admiration for him and what he achieves despite
being given pocket money to play with rather than an actual budget.
What did we say? "A little bit higher than 19th"? With all of this
year's predictions, we'll certainly take that as one of the very few
successes in this year's predictions. But it does
remain a painfully thin squad at Underhill as finances will always
cloud any hopes for a promotion push. They've always relied on the
finances from selling players and whilst Kandol, Bailey, King and
Sinclair added to the coffers in 2007, Puncheon and Hatch brought in
money in 2008, 2009 has not had anyone to follow that lead putting a
possible strain on things down the line. Will there be the funds to
bring in the extra players like they did last time round? So same
old same old for Barnet next season. Far too good to drop down but
will find things too stretched to launch an assault on the top half
of the table. We over
estimated the impact that the second half of 2008-9 would have on
this season. A second half of the season that year was reminiscent
of Hillcroft's first season in charge at Dale, and we half expected
to see a similar follow up from the Bees. Of course, it all went
horribly wrong to the extent of sacking their manager with two games
to go as a final, final, final throw of the dice, even if that
proved to be needless in the end. It was a season too far for some
of their players, especially Furlong who couldn't follow up earlier
goal scoring efforts. Cheltenham
could well end up being the surprise package of League Two, and are
perhaps the likeliest of all the sides I've tipped down at the
bottom end to turn it round and push at the top end, but I just
think in doing so it will need too many things to have to go their
way for that to happen. We're not judging their entire season on
Alsop as he may well even be out the door by the time we hit
October, but they're going to have to ask for that bit more from
what they have got. We think it
will be a tricky season for Aldershot. On paper, they look weaker
this season compared to last season, and it will be a lack of goals
which will be their downfall in our very humble opinion, coupled
with the inability to break the trend shown from Xmas onwards last
season. That said, we think their home form will be easily enough to
ensure that they don't suffer the sort of relegation worries endured
by others down at the bottom. Just the
fourteen places out on this prediction and aren't too proud to put
our hands up and admit it. Aldershot were certainly one of the
success stories of the season, and whilst it might not have gone
according to plan in the Play Offs, they should still look back upon
this season as being a very good one - especially when you consider
recent history from whence they came. They'll
adopt a backs to the wall attitude from the first day and won't
naively go into the season thinking about an outside chance of the
Play Offs. It's all about survival, and with arguably the division's
best defender in Stephen Foster at the back, they will always stand
a chance. We think they'll be okay. Just. Fair enough,
we didn't bank on this being a season too far for Foster and his
subsequent exclusion from the side to avoid a contract extension,
but that should not be seen as some sort of get out clause for Darlo
who, despite turning our promotion party into their own relegation
party, were one of the poorest sides to play in this division in
years. There was actually much to be admired about Darlo's season,
as their new chairman tried to put an end to years and years of
overspending as tried to get the Quakers to operate within their
means. Unfortunately, Darlo fans offered little sympathy as they
simply looked to prove that it was impossible to be self funding in
League Two. So with a
club on the decline, a manager stuck with pretty much the same squad
as last season and the continued wait for something to happen for a
change in fortune, it's going to be another season of struggle for
the Valiants though I suspect they'll be able to reach that extra
level late on to ensure that they're not facing up to a 2010-11
derby game with Tamworth. Based on the
opening day of the season when somehow they salvaged a point from
us, I thought I had this down as pretty much spot on. After all, the
only effort they had on goal came via the penalty spot and that
rookie central defender of ours that we had to throw in that day
seemed to take it all in their stride. Whatever happened to him eh?
Anyway, back to Vale, and its hard to overestimate the job that
Micky Adams did at Vale. Everything about him seemed to be stuck in
the past as he publically lambasted players and transfer listed the
whole squad. But whatever he did, it worked as he made Vale one of
the toughest sides in the division to beat. There was even a hint
late on that the Play offs could be reached. That was a step too
far, but there are many tipping Vale to be the team next
season. You'd have
to imagine that at this stage every season, fans of Accrington get
more than a little blasé about the whole thing. I'd be surprised if
there's been a single season whilst they've been in the Football
League where they've not been tipped by every man and his dog to be
heading back to the Conference, so why should this year be any
different? They've proved people wrong before and no doubt, they'll
have every intention of proving people wrong again this time round.
But any hope may remain in the misaccounting of others leading to
points deductions of a sufficient severity to drag them onto
Stanley's radar. Other than that, it'll be left to Coleman to
produce yet another miracle - one which will arguably be for his
toughest task so far So in one
breath we praise John Coleman's work with Accy, yet in the next we
tip them for the drop. Perhaps we should look upon the John Coleman
miracle as being an annual thing now, as surviving all the financial
turmoil of last season and still putting up one hell of a fight that
looked to be heading towards the Play Offs till a certain side that
we all know went 2-0 down at the Crown Ground, indicates just what a
fantastic manager Coleman is. Perhaps the real miracle is that no
side has ever come in and given him a job with a budget that would
allow him to compete. 15th may well have been their final resting
spot, but in reality they were far better than that. Signings
over the Summer aren't exactly awe inspiring, with more than a touch
of Dads Army about the whole thing. Last season's player of the year
Jake Buxton has exited and they've replaced him with Guy Branston.
Yes, the former Dale player Guy Branston who didn't look fit enough
for League Football when he appeared at Spotland two or three years
ago. Apparently, he's still only 30 meaning his legs might go at
some stage making him even slower. Expect a red card at Spotland. We
just feel that taking last season's poor finish into account, along
with the inexperience of the management and the questionability of
some of the signings, the step up is going to be too much for the
Brewers and they'll become the first ever side to be relegated back
to the Conference in their debut League season. If Guy
Branston had the misfortune to read that inane rubbish written
above, then he'd have spent the rest of the season laughing as he
produced two of the best displays by any player against us. As no
doubt would the rest of the Burton side who went on to not only do
the double over ourselves, but have such a comfortable season that
relegation was never ever an issue. It was a very commendable
season, and whilst they never really had a chance of making the top
seven, the debut season went way above anything that we tipped them
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