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Predictions Revisited - part 1
Predictions Revisited - part 1
Friday, 28th May 2010 19:06

We look back on last Summer's predictions for League Two.

Each team is listed in the position that we felt they would finish, with a snippet from our prediction for them, with a look back at that to follow. Click on any team's name for that full prediction. Part 2 to follow by the weekend hopefully.

 

13th Dagenham & Redbridge
What we said

So they'll be up against it again this time round, and despite the fact that there's still a fair bit of quality left within that squad, it's impossible to look upon that squad as being as strong as it was last year and therefore we can't see them finishing as high as they did last time round. And if Benson was to depart early on, we'd have serious reservations about them finishing where we have them down to.

Reality

I actually thought I was being generous in my prediction when I wrote it, almost to the extent of wanting this to be true rather than actually thinking it to be so. After all, there was so much to admire about Dagenham but deep down inside, I felt the only success that they'd enjoy in Dagenham was from that annoying lass with the giggle on X Factor. I was pleased to be wrong on both fronts, and this weekend could see Dagenham complete a season that could even overshadow our own in terms of being the League Two success story of the season. John Still continues to do an outstanding job, doing in the right way both in terms of football produced and doing so within a budget. Had it not been for the season ending injury sustained against our good selves Stuart Thurgood, then the Play Offs could have been something just to settle for.

14th Crewe Alexandra - finished 18th
What we said

Relegated sides traditionally don't always do so well. History suggests that out of the four sides that come down, more will struggle down here than do well, and the lack of new signings of real quality will hardly sweep away the clouds of disappointment that the relegation brought with it. We have to go back and question the management too. We feel there are big question marks over Thordarson's ability and whilst Crewe are definitely most likely to stick with him over the course of the season, it probably isn't in their best interest to do so. Mid table only for the Alex.

Reality

There wasn't actually any point of Crewe for this past season. Despite a Play Off campaign which seems to involve every side not involved in the relegation battle, Crewe somehow managed to find themselves immune from anything of interest at both ends of the table from start to finish, and their fans must have been wishing for the end of the season before we'd left Autumn. Right as we were in predicting this, we were wrong in having faith in Thordarson's ability to hang around long enough to keep Dario in the boardroom. Mind you, even Dario got a bit of grief off their fans this season. Do their fans not realise what he did in 1997 or whenever should be enough to keep exempt from all criticism in 2010?

15th AFC Bournemouth - finished 2nd
What we said

Relegation shouldn't be an issue. It'd be too easy to look at their avoidance of relegation and cast them for something similar. But a push for bigger and better things isn't on the menu. The embargo and financial issues will play too much of a part to turn things round, and last year's points penalty did them a slight favour in giving themselves something to aim for all season long. Without that, I can see them drifting through the last few weeks of the season with safety assured giving a lowly position. A nice, safe, dull, excitement lacking season beckons.

Reality

We were clearly right in our prediction here. We said relegation wouldn't be an issue and it wasn't at any stage all season. It's impossible to not respect the wonderful job that Eddie Howe did at Bournemouth this season. With off the field issues dominating every report accompanying them, they were written off at every stage with "they'll fall away soon" as their limited squad got tested. Everyone was proved wrong as they kept going, eventually overtaking ourselves to finish 2nd.

16th Grimsby Town - finished 23rd
What we said

By all accounts, Grimsby should have been relegated last season. Last time out, they were dire and few could disagree with that. It'd been a few years of decline but in any other season, they'd have been dropping out of the Football League. After all, it was only the 30 point penalty that hit Luton Town which ensured that the Mariners finished in 22nd place..... We think it will be a season of transition for the Mariners. Not enough changes for them to start challenging at the top end of the division but enough for their fans to start seeing the light at the end of the tunnel and have hopes that 2010-11 might give them a chance to push on to the sort of bigger and better things that their fans have been used to seeing over the past 20 years or so.

Reality

We had Mike Newell down as being a better manager than he clearly was, and given the vitriol he seems to attract amongst the Cod types, it seems we were massively out on that score. It was a minor success story in itself that Grimsby made it to the final game of the season with a chance of survival given that they went so many months without winning a game. But a late run of form should not detract for the horrible mess that this club finds themselves in, and it sums up the permanent decline that we often talk about when we predict clubs with a history of playing at higher levels who find themselves as permanent fixtures in the division formerly known as the Rochdale Division. As it is, there'll be something of a Fish derby when they take on Fleetwood in the Conference next season. Perhaps after all these years, we were tipping the wrong side in Black and White stripes to go down.

17th Macclesfield Town - finished 19th
What we said

Opinion amongst the Macc fans is very much divided about the forthcoming season. A recent poll had fans equally split between whether they saw the Silkmen as relegation battlers or a midtable side, which given the traditional pre-season optimism which affects pretty much every side in the country, is a tad worrying. But we think they've got more about them than that, and whisper it quietly a little bit of faith in Keith Alexander to ensure that they'll finish a little bit higher than last season's 20th placing. Just not a million miles higher, but enough.

Reality

Of course, it would be remiss to look back on Macc's season without looking back at Keith Alexander. Whenever we previewed one of his side's forthcoming season, we used to go into Alexander bashing mode, before eventually admitting through gritted teeth that we had just a teeny weeny bit of admiration for him and what he achieves despite being given pocket money to play with rather than an actual budget. What did we say? "A little bit higher than 19th"? With all of this year's predictions, we'll certainly take that as one of the very few successes in this year's predictions.

18th Barnet - finished 21st
What we said

But it does remain a painfully thin squad at Underhill as finances will always cloud any hopes for a promotion push. They've always relied on the finances from selling players and whilst Kandol, Bailey, King and Sinclair added to the coffers in 2007, Puncheon and Hatch brought in money in 2008, 2009 has not had anyone to follow that lead putting a possible strain on things down the line. Will there be the funds to bring in the extra players like they did last time round? So same old same old for Barnet next season. Far too good to drop down but will find things too stretched to launch an assault on the top half of the table.

Reality

We over estimated the impact that the second half of 2008-9 would have on this season. A second half of the season that year was reminiscent of Hillcroft's first season in charge at Dale, and we half expected to see a similar follow up from the Bees. Of course, it all went horribly wrong to the extent of sacking their manager with two games to go as a final, final, final throw of the dice, even if that proved to be needless in the end. It was a season too far for some of their players, especially Furlong who couldn't follow up earlier goal scoring efforts.

19th Cheltenham Town - finished 22nd
What we said

Cheltenham could well end up being the surprise package of League Two, and are perhaps the likeliest of all the sides I've tipped down at the bottom end to turn it round and push at the top end, but I just think in doing so it will need too many things to have to go their way for that to happen. We're not judging their entire season on Alsop as he may well even be out the door by the time we hit October, but they're going to have to ask for that bit more from what they have got.

Reality Of course after what we wrote, it was always written in the stars that Alsop would score the winning goal against us this season.  But it was a season that never really got going for Cheltenham where the off the field stuff seemed to put a spanner in the works that they never really recovered from.
20th Aldershot Town - finished 6th
What we said

We think it will be a tricky season for Aldershot. On paper, they look weaker this season compared to last season, and it will be a lack of goals which will be their downfall in our very humble opinion, coupled with the inability to break the trend shown from Xmas onwards last season. That said, we think their home form will be easily enough to ensure that they don't suffer the sort of relegation worries endured by others down at the bottom.

Reality

Just the fourteen places out on this prediction and aren't too proud to put our hands up and admit it. Aldershot were certainly one of the success stories of the season, and whilst it might not have gone according to plan in the Play Offs, they should still look back upon this season as being a very good one - especially when you consider recent history from whence they came.

21st Darlington - finished 24th
What we said

They'll adopt a backs to the wall attitude from the first day and won't naively go into the season thinking about an outside chance of the Play Offs. It's all about survival, and with arguably the division's best defender in Stephen Foster at the back, they will always stand a chance. We think they'll be okay. Just.

Reality

Fair enough, we didn't bank on this being a season too far for Foster and his subsequent exclusion from the side to avoid a contract extension, but that should not be seen as some sort of get out clause for Darlo who, despite turning our promotion party into their own relegation party, were one of the poorest sides to play in this division in years. There was actually much to be admired about Darlo's season, as their new chairman tried to put an end to years and years of overspending as tried to get the Quakers to operate within their means. Unfortunately, Darlo fans offered little sympathy as they simply looked to prove that it was impossible to be self funding in League Two.

22nd Port Vale - finished 10th
What we said

So with a club on the decline, a manager stuck with pretty much the same squad as last season and the continued wait for something to happen for a change in fortune, it's going to be another season of struggle for the Valiants though I suspect they'll be able to reach that extra level late on to ensure that they're not facing up to a 2010-11 derby game with Tamworth.

Reality

Based on the opening day of the season when somehow they salvaged a point from us, I thought I had this down as pretty much spot on. After all, the only effort they had on goal came via the penalty spot and that rookie central defender of ours that we had to throw in that day seemed to take it all in their stride. Whatever happened to him eh? Anyway, back to Vale, and its hard to overestimate the job that Micky Adams did at Vale. Everything about him seemed to be stuck in the past as he publically lambasted players and transfer listed the whole squad. But whatever he did, it worked as he made Vale one of the toughest sides in the division to beat. There was even a hint late on that the Play offs could be reached. That was a step too far, but there are many tipping Vale to be the team next season.

23rd Accrington Stanley - finished 15th
What we said

You'd have to imagine that at this stage every season, fans of Accrington get more than a little blasé about the whole thing. I'd be surprised if there's been a single season whilst they've been in the Football League where they've not been tipped by every man and his dog to be heading back to the Conference, so why should this year be any different? They've proved people wrong before and no doubt, they'll have every intention of proving people wrong again this time round. But any hope may remain in the misaccounting of others leading to points deductions of a sufficient severity to drag them onto Stanley's radar. Other than that, it'll be left to Coleman to produce yet another miracle - one which will arguably be for his toughest task so far

Reality

So in one breath we praise John Coleman's work with Accy, yet in the next we tip them for the drop. Perhaps we should look upon the John Coleman miracle as being an annual thing now, as surviving all the financial turmoil of last season and still putting up one hell of a fight that looked to be heading towards the Play Offs till a certain side that we all know went 2-0 down at the Crown Ground, indicates just what a fantastic manager Coleman is. Perhaps the real miracle is that no side has ever come in and given him a job with a budget that would allow him to compete. 15th may well have been their final resting spot, but in reality they were far better than that.

24th Burton Albion - 13th
What we said

Signings over the Summer aren't exactly awe inspiring, with more than a touch of Dads Army about the whole thing. Last season's player of the year Jake Buxton has exited and they've replaced him with Guy Branston. Yes, the former Dale player Guy Branston who didn't look fit enough for League Football when he appeared at Spotland two or three years ago. Apparently, he's still only 30 meaning his legs might go at some stage making him even slower. Expect a red card at Spotland. We just feel that taking last season's poor finish into account, along with the inexperience of the management and the questionability of some of the signings, the step up is going to be too much for the Brewers and they'll become the first ever side to be relegated back to the Conference in their debut League season.

Reality

If Guy Branston had the misfortune to read that inane rubbish written above, then he'd have spent the rest of the season laughing as he produced two of the best displays by any player against us. As no doubt would the rest of the Burton side who went on to not only do the double over ourselves, but have such a comfortable season that relegation was never ever an issue. It was a very commendable season, and whilst they never really had a chance of making the top seven, the debut season went way above anything that we tipped them for.

Photo: Action Images



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