Predictions 2008-9 - 17th Bournemouth Saturday, 2nd Aug 2008 17:01
Arguably the team I knew the least about when starting to do the Predictions. Perhaps not that arguable after you've read it. Anyway, here's the prediction for who I think will finish 17th.
AFC
Bournemouth |
last
season at a glance |
Last season was almost the sort of season which makes
your average "Great Escape" seem ridiculous. At times they were dead and
buried, and things weren't helped by a ten points penalty for entering
administration. But a late run, saw them win six out of their last seven
games giving them a chance which previously had long since been
extinguished. A huge following travelled up to Carlisle with real belief
for the first time in months, and so it proved that the ten point
penalty had cost them dear as they finished two points below Cheltenham,
instead of the 15th place they will feel they should have been in.
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The
gaffer - Kevin Bond |
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At least when Kevin Bond became the fall guy for that BBC Panorama show into
corruption in football, it gave him something else to be known as rather than
just the son of John Bond (and for legal reasons, we're happy to point out that
Bond is apparently considering suing both BBC for that show, and Newcastle for
his subsequent dismissal). On the coaching side of things, he's been around
for a few years. He's coached at Man City and has been assistant manager at
Portsmouth, Southampton and Newcastle, suggesting that he's got a decent
reputation within the game.
He was appointed manager of Bournemouth back in November 2006 and just seemed
to be meandering in that position until the aforementioned late run which came
so close to keeping them up.
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Reasons for a better season |
That end few games of the 2007-8 season has given
Bournemouth fans real belief about what can be achieved. This side which
had been amongst the division's worse all season, all of a sudden became
a team of world beaters, becoming without doubt the division's best.
The difference? Well it's been suggested that AFCB
manager Kevin Bond stopped trying to get the best from a number of loan
signings, and made do with what he had at his disposal, and it worked.
Common sense will say to you that if they can get
any sort of form from that run, then they could do something very
special indeed. They've already proved themselves (in the short term) to
be better than anything in League One. For that alone, League Two should
be a walk in the park.
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Reasons for a worse season |
Could this be any more obvious?
Last season they were sent down on the back of a ten point deduction.
This season, they are looking at a points deduction of between 15 and 20
points and that is before the season has even started.
Whilst no doubt Bournemouth are
best equipped to deal with this points deduction than Luton and
Rotherham will be able to, it still practically writes off their season
before a ball has been kicked in anger.
If as seems to have been predicted
that they lose twenty points, then they are needing a total of around 95
points just to ensure that they qualify for the Play Offs, with perhaps
a century of points required if they harbour any sort of dreams of
automatic promotion.
It's perhaps also worth noting that
the late run of form isn't uncommon when a side sees themselves as
having nothing left to play for, grab a couple of wins, and then
momentum kicks in. Bournemouth's recent history suggests that this late
run was nothing more than a flash in the pan.
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Season depends on - Brett Pitman |
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We at RochdaleAFC.com have always tried to
stay away from the obvious things. We haven't tipped Notts
County to be relegated, we don't come out with fish puns when
carping on about Grimsby (see what I did there?) and we tend not
to just go with the big name players when singling out who we
think will be the main man for the forthcoming season. So
we've decided against going ahead with any of their Dad's Army
players such as Darren Anderton, Lee Bradbury or Chris Powell,
and we've even skipped on last season's top scorer Jo Kuffour.
We've gone with 20 year old striker Brett Pitman.
The Jersey born frontman made his debut three years ago at
just seventeen for the Cherries, and has gone on to make a
number of appearances for them over the years. These appearances
haven't necessarily been translated into goals just yet, but we
reckon the drop down to League Two will be all that the 20 year
old needs to start hitting the big time.
He's mostly been used off the bench, but we can see all of
that changing this time round, and we wouldn't be surprised if
he gets linked with moves higher up the leagues in a few months
time.
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RochdaleAFC.com Prediction |
17th - Lower half nothingness
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Reasons for our prediction |
Like with our prediction for Rotherham, there's so
many doubts when it comes down to doing this prediction. We have no
knowledge of what action will be taken by the authorities, and it's
criminal that at time of writing (less than a week before the season
starts) that we still don't know the outcome with these two clubs. So
we've gone with the assumption that they'll get twenty points knocked
off their total before the season starts. It's very rare in football
that someone now gets a second chance. Manager Kevin Bond has been given
one. That late run has given him a new contract, and with the new owners
set to see through their takeover in the next few days (or at least get
that FL rubber stamping), there's going to be some optimism floating
about.
But much will depend on how important that end of the season run was.
Had they had that run in say February, then we'd have had no problems
dismissing it as just a short good run which was not reflective on their
fortunes. But with it coming at the end of a season (and therefore not
finishing yet), there's a slight feeling that things may well have
changed.
But that optimism or whatever you want to call it from the end of
last season could well be wiped out when the FL ruling comes in. As
mentioned above, if its as much as twenty points then the Football
League will have all but ruled out any chances of success this season,
and certain elder members of their squad will find themselves playing
out a final season going through the motions.
They've definitely got more about them than Luton or Rotherham, so we
see them well capable of getting more than enough points to ensure that
a relegation battle isn't on the agenda. Indeed, there'll be a few teams
ending the season quite embarrassed at getting a points total smaller
than Bournemouth's.
In an ideal world, we'd have had Bournemouth as being genuine
automatic promotion contenders, with a points total of something like 85
points. Take off the twenty points, and a few more due to lack of
motivation for the players, and we can see them getting around 50 to 55
points which will see them happily start planning for next season from
about January onwards.
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Photo: Action Images
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