Predictions 2008-9 - 16th Morecambe Saturday, 2nd Aug 2008 23:31
Our latest prediction takes a look at fellow Lancastrians Morecambe FC and how we think they'll do during the forthcoming season.
Morecambe |
last
season at a glance |
There was a touch of the Charltons about Morecambe
last season. Whilst like with many other sides who come up from the
Conference, they make all the right noises that it isn't just about
survival, but the stats prove otherwise. Last season was all about
staying up, which they managed with some ease. But as soon as they hit
the 50 points level, they got the nod from the pavilion and issued a
declaration, before eventually stumbling their way to what was a highly
creditable 11th place finish - but one which could have been improved
upon had they stuck with their earlier form.
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The
gaffer - Sammy McIlroy |
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You can't fault McIlroy's record with the Shrimps. He's took them into the
Football League for the first time ever, and within the space of a season has
established them far more than say the likes of Accrington ever have done. On
that alone, he's probably down as having one of the safest jobs in the whole of
the division and it would take something extraordinary for McIlroy to face the
sack. Aside from his time at Stockport, where he wasn't alone in finding that
an impossible job to succeed in, he's had good times in the Football League with
both Morecambe and Macc, and in both cases he's had them succeeding playing good
football along the way.
One thing which always stood out for me over the years with McIlroy is that
he always came across as a lovely bloke and that as such his dressing rooms were
always a haven of peace and harmony. But after last season's bust up with Craig
Stanley, you'd have to accept that it's not quite the oasis of calm it comes
across as.
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Reasons for a better season |
The obvious answer to put down for a start is that
the Morecambe side will be going into the new season with a season's
worth of League Football under their belt. Many of their side hadn't
experienced that before, and will most certainly be better players as a
result.
And there's likely to be fresh ambition about the
place this time round. Whilst they'll never have admitted to it, staying
up was their raison d'être last season, hence their second half of the
season slump. They probably didn't realise quite how good they could be,
hence a lower finish than they could have wished for. There'll be no
mistakes this time round of setting their sights too low.
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Reasons for a worse season |
There's three main reasons to
suspect that this will be a worse season for Morecambe. Firstly, that
promotion momentum is now gone. It always sees a promoted side through
the first half of the season as there is still a huge buzz about the
place following the promotion. Had we beat Stockport, our board could
have tripled admission prices, sold all our players, replaced the
stewards with gun toting storm troopers and brought Chris Casper in as
Director of Football, and we'd still just be going round with huge grins
on our faces like someone E'd up at three in the morning. That will be
absent from Morecambe as they start this new season.
Secondly, and you could argue this
is just an extension of firstly for you Captain Pedants out there, that
run of form which they finished the season with would worry me greatly.
Just four wins in the final four months of the season is relegation
form, and whilst as above you could argue that it was already job done
for McIlroy's men, that mindset can be difficult to shift.
Thirdly though, you look at their
squad from last season, and it seems to be "Will anyone who scored more
than five goals please leave now?". Carl Baker - gone. Garry Thompson.
Even Jon Newby got ten goals through some force which is obviously of a
higher power, and he's gone too. And if we say that losing Jon Newby is
a bad thing, then God help you.
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Season depends on - Rene Howe |
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I don't think anyone at Spotland really
appreciated quite what a fine job that Rene Howe did for us last
season. He came in as replacement for Glenn Murray, having never
been given a chance at Peterboro in what was his first real go
at League Football. In doing so, he actually produced a better
goalscoring record in the 2007-8 season than Murray did, and I
don't think you could ask for more than that. Admittedly,
there were times where he drifted in and out of games, and he
didn't fully take advantage of his bulk, but those concerns
could probably have been levelled at any player in their first
full season, and arguably those concerns judge him on the things
that he didn't do rather than the things he did do.
But I am sure that he'll have learned much from his time with
Dale, and come out of it as a better player. If there's any
worries about him at Morecambe, it'd be how he'd cope away from
the big city. I know Rochdale isn't exactly Monte Carlo but its
not as isolated as Morecambe is and I can see him feeling a
touch isolated up there in Morecambe.
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RochdaleAFC.com Prediction |
16th - Lower half nothingness
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Reasons for our prediction |
Overall, I suspect things will be a touch worse for
Morecambe this time round, mainly due to the fact that the players
leaving Christie Park aren't as good as the players who have arrived
there. Please don't start thinking that I'm going to do anything
stupid like sticking up for Jon Newby, but with Newby, Thompson and
Baker all leaving Morecambe over the Summer, that's very roughly a total
of thirty goals that have been wiped off from last season's total. Take
that away from any side, and you'll notice the difference.
Morecambe fans will quite rightly point out that Blinkhorn remains,
and that Rene Howe has been drafted in for that very reason, but much as
I rate Howe, I can't see him getting anything close to a figure which
will make up for such a loss of goals, especially when about twenty of
those came from midfield.
I still think that there'll be more than enough in the Morecambe
squad to ensure that they are well away from the dogfight below, and
McIlroy will be far too canny for it to come to that, but there's a huge
difference between a buoyant Morecambe side and a somewhat deflated one,
especially on the back of losing arguably their two best players and it
would be very easy to claim that they reached their peak at around
December of last season.
There seems to be a bit of money floating around Morecambe right now,
and they've been linked with cash bids for Andy Kirk and Andy Bishop,
both of which they seem to have missed out on, but it would appear
McIlroy is still on the look out for another striker, so I guess things
could change as the Morecambe squad does, but as it stands it's going to
be a disappointing season for the Shrimps.
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Photo: Action Images
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