As it turns out LFW’s decision to leave a season betting preview until after the first round of Football League games was ill-advised as all three of our promotion tips failed to win. Still, it’s early days yet, as Andy Hillman will no doubt agree.

Well the Premier League is now only a week or so away. It’s been a long old close season with little football to entertain us so I suppose it’s a good thing that QPR are always entertaining us off the pitch as well. Despite telling myself to take it easy over the summer months and I’ve had quite a profitable close season with notable success on Scandinavian football multiples. These are scarily easy to predict, and as the league is not that renowned the bookies don’t pay that much attention to it, and therefore odds are fairly arbitrary meaning that you can get some pretty decent odds on fairly safe multiples.

Following on from Brian’s notable success in horse racing in the LFW Betting Challenge last season I thought I’d also give the horses a crack this summer, and I dabbled a bit on some of the bigger events like Ascot and Goodwood, with fairly healthy returns (I claim no expert knowledge past knowing that Frankel is some sort of Wonder-horse, I basically followed the Timeform guide, and acquired some reasonable tipster contacts on Twitter, who mainly corroborated what the Timeform guide told me…)

Football will still be my main betting stream this year, although it’s always nice to be able to mix it in other sports. Apart from Tennis - it would appear that I am incapable of winning even the most straightforward bet in Tennis. Anyone remember the day where the top four seeds in the women’s draw all crashed out against much weaker opposition? That was my doing.

Premiership

The first, and most obvious, question is: “How are QPR going to do?” Up until Taarabt’s failure to move to PSG (score one for Clive…), I was very pessimistic of our chances of staying up, and working out just how bad it would have been for me to bet on QPR’s relegation. But now that Taarabt’s currently staying, coupled with the signings of Bothroyd and Campbell, I really believe that we can stay up. Not since Maradona in ’86 has the fortunes of one team rested so heavily on the shoulders of one man. We’re actually third favourites for relegation with Betfair, although we’re not odds on like both Swansea and Norwich, who most bookies think are doomed. If you still think that we’re going to threaten Derby’s record low points total, we’re 7/4 for the drop, and 7/1 to finish bottom.

A couple of other interesting QPR goal scorer bets - Taarabt is 300/1 to be top scorer, and Bothroyd is 410/1 in the same market. Somewhat surprisingly, Mackie has been backed on Betfair @ 1000/1 to be the Premier League’s top goal scorer - a whole £6 has been matched on that market - not sure who is crazier - the guy staking £6 on Mackie at 1000 /1, or the guy staking (and tying up!) £6000 for 9 months to win £6. To be in the top four goal scorers, Taarabt is at 25/1, and Bothroyd is 60/1, which might be worth a punt, as if Bothroyd starts well his odds will drop on Betfair, and there may be a chance to trade out and guarantee yourself a profit.

The trouble with backing the obvious relegation candidates is that the odds are so bloody low, that you’re having to commit vast sums of money for nine months to get a fairly miserly return - I think that Swansea are nailed on to go down, but I’m not willing to commit £100 for nine months to see £65 profit. In fact all of QPR, Swansea, Norwich, Blackburn, Wigan, Wolves and West Brom are under 5/1 to be relegated - not an awful lot of value there. Possibly a better bet would be to go for a club like Bolton or Newcastle, both available at 7/1 or better for the drop - Newcastle in particular having lost Carroll, Nolan and now possibly Barton and Enrique in the coming days are lacking any sort of real quality, and don’t appear to be reinvesting any of the Carroll money - they could really struggle this season.

At the other end of the table, Man Utd are obvious favourites for the title, but at a best price of 2/1 is there really any point in backing them? Perhaps it’s worth backing Arsenal on an exchange like Betfair for closer to 10/1, and get out before they have their customary end of season slump. There appears to be a humdinger of a battle in the offing for the Champions League places, and four into six patently doesn’t go. But the odds for each of the six clubs making the top four are so low, Spurs having the longest odds at 7/2, that there is little value backing them. Instead, it makes sense to be creative with the other markets.

There is a lowest team goals market that appears to be completely unattended, insomuch as the odds haven’t changed regardless of the transfer activity done by the clubs. Wigan are currently 7/1, Blackburn at 10/1 and Newcastle at 20/1 to be the lowest goal scorers in the Premier League, and betting on these as opposed to relegation offers significantly better odds. QPR are the favourites at 5/1 incidentally. Wigan in particular, shorn of N’Zogbia, and one sensible bid away from losing Rodallega as well don’t seem to have any goals in them at all, and Newcastle are going to be massively reliant on Demba Ba being injury free - a topic discussed at length on LFW previously. If the Venky’s statement of intent is signing David Goodwillie from Dundee Utd, it could also be a very long season for the Blackburn fans - but at least they’re only spending £17.50 on a ticket, pie and coffee.

Andy’s Predictions: 1. Man Utd. 2. Chelsea. 3. Man City. 4. Arsenal. 18. Newcastle. 19. Wigan. 20. Swansea. QPR to finish 14th.

Recommended Bets: Newcastle to be relegated 7/1; Wigan or Blackburn to be lowest scorers 7/1 & 10/1 respectively.

QPR Bet: Bothroyd to be in the top four goalscorers - 60/1 - take with a view to getting out if Bothroyd starts well.

The Championship

Pah! Who cares about the Championship? Mickey Mouse league at best! What I will say about the Championship is that we’re bloody lucky that we got promoted last season, as this season it looks significantly harder, with an awful lot of clubs looking a very good bet to either win the league or get promoted. The bookies cannot split West Ham and Leicester at the moment, both available at a best price of around 5/1 at the moment. West Ham will be reliant on keeping their best players (and Nolan is once again the division’s stand out player) and Leicester will deploy the “if it moves, sign it…” approach to winning the league. Beyond them there is a raft of clubs available at 15/1 for the title, including the obvious candidates of Forest, Reading, Birmingham and Middlesbrough. On the assumption that these two teams will take the automatic spots, and they should, the straight forecast betting on it being West Ham 1st / Leicester 2nd at 12/1, and Leicester 1st / West Ham 2nd also at 12/1 look like a no brainer. Go ‘Dutch’ and back both of these eventualities, and you don’t have to worry which one wins, as long as they finish in the top two.

At the other end of the table, it appears that it’s any three from six, with Barnsley, Watford, Peterborough, Coventry, Doncaster and Palace being massively shorter odds than the others. As with the Premiership, there is little value in backing any of these outcomes, and it’s probably best to stay away from a money making point of view. One to look out for however is Blackpool, who if they are not careful could fall through the floor a second time. Holloway’s been walking around telling anyone who cares to listen that it’s been the worst summer in his history, and having lost almost all of his decent players he’s struggling to motivate the squad, and the replacements are mediocre at best - not sure how long we can cling to the ‘Kevin Phillips guarantees you goals’ ideal as he rapidly approaches his fiftieth birthday. Blackpool to be relegated is available at a whopping 18/1 with some bookmakers, and that’s probably worth a look. There are far worse teams in the league than Blackpool, but losing is a habit as much as winning is, and Blackpool have the losing habit, and Holloway sounds broken and defeated already. You can also get Ian Holloway at 20/1 as the next manager to leave his post - and the way that Holloway is talking he could easily walk if Blackpool start off badly.

There is no clear favourite in the top goal scorer market for the Championship, with a number of candidates available at 15’s or better. Shang Long is the favourite with the bookies, at around 10/1, I think that this is very underpriced, he should probably be in the 15’s with the pack to be honest. although it hasn’t put off Leicester making a £7 million pound bid for him which is absolute madness. Nicky Maynard, probably the best striker in the division when fit, it available at 16’s, and Kenny Miller, back from his stellar success at Bursaspor is available at 18’s. One Championship preview suggested that he was the ‘most feared and lethal striker in the division’. Fairly sure that was Kris Boyd’s tagline last year - what have we said before about Scottish strikers? Although he’s started well today to be fair.

Andy’s Predictions: 1. West Ham. 2. Leicester P/O Winner - Forest. 22. Coventry. 23. Watford. 24. Barnsley

Recommended Bets: West Ham/Leicester or Leicester/West Ham - both 12/1, back both eventualities. Blackpool to be relegated - 18/1

League 1 & League 2

This is where my knowledge of the leagues begins to drop off, I don’t have an encyclopaedic knowledge of the lower leagues like Clive does. What I do know however, is that in League One, the much heralded battle of the Sheffield clubs is going to be for a playoff spot at best, with Huddersfield and Charlton taking the automatic spots. In League Two, Crawley appear to be nailed on for back to back promotions. Crawley are a best priced 10/3 for the title, with everyone else in double figures. Shrewsbury have been there or thereabouts for a few seasons now and new Bristol Rovers boss Paul Buckle has built a completely new team following relegation last season and they are well fancied.

Europe

Europe’s a funny old place these days for football. In France, PSG have copied Man City and acquired their own Sheikh, spending nearly £100m on players in the process. That includes nearly £40 million on Javier Pastore, who is clearly only going there for the money, because any way you slice it Serie A and Palermo are both streets ahead of Ligue 1 and PSG. Pastore basically announced that he was leaving, expecting to go Chelsea, Man City or similar, but even Man City baulked at the fairly non-negotiable £40m fee that Palermo president Zamperini imposed on him, and PSG were the only club silly enough to bid that much. Pastore is a good player, and in my opinion much better than the £30m rated Modric, but then I don’t think that Modric is worth much more than £15m personally. Man City have shown that hovering up all the talent doesn’t guarantee the league, but I reckon that PSG will walk the league, and are a best priced 5/2 to do so.

Speaking of Serie A, my second club, AS Roma, have caused some controversy by being the first Italian team to be sold to non-Italian owners - although in his defence, the owner is American-Italian. After some of the abject financial meltdowns of some the previous Italian owners of football clubs (Parmalat & the Sensi Family for example) and the Calciopoli scandal in recent years, I would have thought that foreign ownership was the least of their concerns. Aside from the controversy, Roma have made significant moves in the transfer market including a deal for Barcelona’s Bojan Krkic that Paladini would be proud of - essentially, Roma have bought Bojan for £12 million; after two years Barcelona HAVE to buy him back for £13 million, or Roma HAVE to pay a FURTHER £28 million for him. There’s no way that’s going to end up messy, is there? Roma are 12/1 for the title, which may be slightly out of their reach, but they are 3/1 to win without both of the Milanese clubs, and 16/1 with a nine point handicap, and that’s something definitely worth looking at when you bear in mind that the Serie A title is rarely won at a canter by any team, and there’s usually something to play for up until the last couple of weeks.

Pre-Season Yankee

Based on the above, a Yankee (one quadruple, four trebles and six doubles for a total of 11 separate bets…) on the four predicted winners (Man Utd, West Ham, Huddersfield and Crawley) at £10 a leg (£110 total bet…) pays out £7511.20. You only need any two to come in to break even, and if any three come in you’re looking at £1000 return easy. This is the bet that I’ve gone for, and the betting slip is attached.

I’ll be back for the Friday betting preview prior to the Bolton game on Saturday (and I’m predicting a win people!) so until then, cheers, and stay lucky…

Four short of 600 followers on Twitter, are you going to be the one to push @loftforwords over that line?

Photo: Action Images

SonofNorfolt added 03:10 - Aug 8 Ipswich are the value bet. Jewell has done it before, and they look like they have spent wisely. Southampton may continue with their momentum.
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