After a fabulous 2011/12 where they finished fifth, Newcastle are finding the going a lot tougher in 2012/13. LFW attempts to shine a bit of light on why that is.

Overview

Did Newcastle over-achieve last season? Are they underachieving so far in this campaign? It really is hard to keep track of the Magpies sometimes.

The approach to Newcastle by train is a long, slow, drawn out affair. The services from the south approach the city centre at a right angle, slowing to bend sharply to the left and then over the Tyne 300 feet up in the air. It’s a journey that offers spectacular views of the city and its dominant feature St James’ Park, standing high on the tallest hill, right in the centre of the place, like a cathedral that calls the locals into worship once a week at 3pm on a Saturday.

The average attendance there this season is about 400 people shy of 50,000 which is third only behind Manchester United and Arsenal. More people come to watch Newcastle than Chelsea, Spurs, Everton, Liverpool and champions Manchester City. Ride the city’s Metro system and listen as one mobile phone after another whirs into life, blasting out Mark Knopfler’s Theme of the Local Hero which the team runs out to at home matches.

This is a club that signed Alan Shearer from under the noses of Manchester United, and Michael Owen from Real Madrid, and when such occasions arise, or Kevin Keegan is appointed manager – which he often is – thousands upon thousands of fans don their black and white stripes and gather at their Mecca to greet the new arrival. Similarly, when Graeme Souness or Sam Allardyce are appointed, they gather en masse once more to voice displeasure and yell “we’re one of the biggest clubs in Europe” into passing camera lenses. When Sky Sports turn up on transfer deadline day locals gather behind the presenter and spend the day there, leaping around with their trainers on their hands shouting “shoes off for the Toon”. Newcastle United is at the heart of everything in this vibrant city and therefore the idea that the team should currently be fifteenth – below Fulham, West Ham, Swansea, Stoke and West Brom and just two points better off than Wigan – is preposterous really.

But Newcastle are far from a top flight mainstay. QPR’s Old First Division survival in 1988/89 came partly at the Magpies’ expense and they didn’t return from the second tier for a further four years after that. They may indeed have finished fifth last season, but they were a Championship side in 2009/10 and had endured several poor seasons prior to the relegation that took them there after the harsh decision to remove legendary manager Bobby Robson from his position early in the 2004/05 campaign. This is a club that hasn’t won a major domestic trophy since 1955 – even QPR have won one since then.

Ipswich Town also finished fifth immediately after a promotion in 2000/01 but were relegated a year later while trying to cope with the demands placed on them by European football. The general received wisdom at the moment is that Newcastle are underperforming for the same reason. Four in and seven out during the summer means the squad is smaller than last season, when they were fortunate not to undergo any sort of major injury crisis during the campaign, and the demands of the ridiculously bloated and over populated Europa League means they’ve already played 26 matches this season compared to QPR’s 19. Throw in the travelling – they’ve been to Bordeaux, Madeira, Bruges and Athens on Thursday nights this season and been expected to fly back for a Premier League game 48 hours later – and perhaps it’s understandable that they’re struggling. Their record after European games this season is five defeats a draw and two wins. Unlike last season injuries are also biting, with Ryan and Steven Taylor key misses from the defence and Hatem Ben Arfa sorely missed in attack.

There’s also been much made of the slide in form coinciding with manager Alan Pardew being awarded an unprecedented eight year contract. Newcastle, once the kings of the over-priced panic buy or harsh managerial sacking, have suddenly become an example of a well run club in a crazy business and when things were going well the faith shown in Pardew was held up as an example to others – now results have turned slightly it’s being questioned, highlighting the chronic short termism that permeates football and means that any manager of club is only ever three straight defeats away from a crisis. Let’s not forget that while Pardew was adding Papiss Ciise, Demba Ba, Yohan Cabaye and Davide Santon to his squad for a combined fee of £18.8m last season, Liverpool were buying Stewart Downing for £20m. Newcastle are now one of those clubs that puts the hard yards in on the scouting front to pick up bargains who clubs like Liverpool and Man City then come after for big money a few months later. That used to be Newcastle waving the cheque book around.

And as I’ve written a lot recently, in an age where every club has a rich owner who can spend big money on players it’s the clubs with the long term plan, decent manager and good scouting systems that are winning through and succeeding – West Brom, Norwich, Swansea. For that reason Newcastle, well if not always popularly run by Mike Ashley, should probably recover from a tricky start to this season and continue to thrive moving forwards. The issue is that despite the huge crowds, fantastic stadium and everything else, Newcastle are no more or less infallible than any other team and, for all their best laid plans, should Fabricio Coluccini join Steven Taylor on the sidelines then the second half of this season becomes a very, very tricky proposition for them.

Interview

Welcome back to LFW James Harrison, our Newcastle fan in residence, who gives us the latest from St James’ Park as he sees it.

Stark contrast between Newcastle last season and Newcastle this - what's changed? Was it an over achievement last season? Are you suffering from extra European games?

I think that injuries haven’t helped us. Not only have we lost some of our best players (referred to by Derek Llambias as “purples”) through injury for extended periods of time such as Cabaye, Ben Arfa and Steven Taylor, we’ve also lost some utility players with long term injuries. Most Newcastle fans would disagree with some of these statements but I think missing Ryan Taylor has been a large part of it. He can play pretty much anywhere on the pitch (sometimes better than the players he is covering) so to lose a player like that is instantly means there are fewer replacements in key areas.

We also didn’t replace the numbers, especially given the Europa League games. We lost Lovenkrands, Best and Guthrie but only really brought Anita in. So fewer players, more matches; doesn’t take a mathematical genius to work out you’re putting your squad at a greater risk.

I wouldn’t say that we overachieved. Liverpool and Chelsea finished below us despite their budgets so I would say they underachieved. However, the people at the top decided that we could do just as well if not better with fewer players. They underestimated the effect opposition teams had on our lofty position and sat still whilst others improved. In terms of our play, without Cabaye and Ben Arfa, we are playing far too many long balls. I don’t support Stoke or West Ham, so why when we get a free kick five yards either side of the half way line are we playing long balls into the opposition box giving them the opportunity to regain possession? Surely the right thing to do would be to maintain pressure in the opposition’s half with short passing? Certain players like Williamson, Tiote and Simpson simply do not have the ability to play on the floor so play long 99% of the time.

What do you make of Alan Pardew's eight year contract? What's the general feeling among the support about this - good or bad?

Mixed reaction, inevitably turning once the wins dried up. I am almost certain that Pardew’s contract has more holes than a piece of Emmental…

What are the key weaknesses in the team? Any suggestion these are going to be dealt with in January? What's required signing wise?

The main weakness is the right side of the defence. We need a new right back and a new centre back. Perhaps getting a new left back as well wouldn’t be a bad idea. I saw Mathieu Debuchy play in St Etienne for Lille in the summer and the bloke was amazing. Always in the right position at the right time and, unlike Simpson, never felt the need to do a highlights reel slide tackle. With Debuchy in the team and a new left back, we could switch Santon to the right with Debuchy and have two attacking right sided players covering each other. I think opposition players would struggle to work out who was the midfielder and who the defender. Williamson isn’t even Championship material and it’s outrageous that he is our stand in centre back. There have been rumours that we’re going to invoke Diame’s £3.7m release clause. He was going for a free in the summer when Chelsea and Man U were talking silly money for the vastly overrated Tiote which was a missed opportunity. When we played West Ham, Diame ran the show. He can dribble, tackle, score and stay out the book for longer than 30 minutes, all of which Tiote can’t do. Also even if Ba does stay, we need another centre forward to make up for the players we lost last season. If he goes we need one plus another of proven quality.

Cisse and Ba never seem to go on hot scoring runs at the same time, it's either one or the other, why is that?

They’re always going for the same ball. I also think Cisse was very lucky on several occasions last season when he was quite clearly offside on many of the goals he scored. Overall I think Ba is a better player although quite greedy. To accommodate both players and keep the peace, Pardew is playing one out of position. Much better to keep one on the bench ready for action if need be. Ba scores all kind of goals. Cisse scores when drifting off the last man. This season Ba has been the focal point of the attack. This along with our penchant for long balls has seen Cisse suffer this season.

Is the aim now getting enough points to avoid a relegation scrap, or are people still expecting a decent second half to the season?

The best we can hope for now is a top half finish and a victory over Sunderland. If we had beaten Fulham we could have looked up the table instead of down but there are a lot of teams above us playing better football. I’ll just be happy when we get to 42 points.

Scout Report

QPR’s main weakness this season has been defending from set pieces, while Newcastle remain the only team in the division not to score directly from a dead ball situation in a league game. Throw in centre half Mike Williamson, who is six foot four inches tall but hasn’t scored a goal for Newcastle in 91 appearances for the club and this feels like a book we’ve all read somewhere before. Williamson has actually scored own goals to help knock Newcastle out of the FA Cup in the last two seasons, including a defeat at Brighton last year which is where the Magpies have been drawn once again for the third round this January.

The lack of goals scored from corners certainly isn’t for lack of creative thinking. Against Fulham last week when I watched Newcastle they ran an interesting routine in the first half whereby the entire team piled into the six yard box with late runs, panicking the Fulham players into going with them which then left acres of space in the rest of the penalty area for Fabricio Coluccini, who initially looked like he was going to be the last man back, to race into at the last second and meet a chipped cross with a firm header that Fulham were fortunate to clear from the line. Watch out for that one this weekend.

Last season’s fifth placed finish was partly down to the goals of Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse. Ba scored 17 times last season but they all came in a 21 game burst from the end of September to the end of January and he didn’t score any in the last 14 matches. By then Cisse had arrived from Freiberg and scored 13 goals in those 14 matches. This season the goal scoring has reverted back to Ba – he has 11 to Cisse’s four. The lazy conclusion is that they can’t play together, and Newcastle should simply bite the bullet and pick one or the other. Watching them, I’d modify that slightly to say they struggle to play together in Newcastle’s system. Pardew picks one main striker through the middle, and then two men playing off him right and left. Hatem Ben Arfa, when fit, is usually the man down the left leaving Cisse and Ba to share the right sided role between them even though it really doesn’t suit either of them that well. Ben Arfa came back from injury against Fulham, scored one fantastic goal, took two corners which resulted in goal line clearances hinting that the set piece issue may be down to his absence as well, and then took the goal threat with him when he went off in the seventieth minute. Pardew sent on Shola Ameobi instead of him and they never looked like scoring again. Thankfully Ben Arfa is apparently injured again this weekend.

Behind Ben Arfa against Fulham Newcastle played with Davide Santon at left back – quite an attack minded player – and Jonas Gutierrez to the left of the three man midfield. I remember in a win at Stoke last season I saw Gutierrez utilised very successfully as almost a second full back to take Pennant and Etherington out of the game and force Stoke down the middle where their less dangerous players are so I was surprised to see Fulham get so much joy down that side last Monday night. Santon was regularly caught down the field as Damien Duff attacked the space behind him, which in turn dragged Coluccini and Cheick Tiote across to cover meaning big spaces then appeared behind them in the more dangerous central areas around the penalty area. This stopped to a certain extent in the second half when Santon was much more reserved with his runs but is certainly an area QPR should have a poke around in on Saturday and see if there’s anything there for them.

It was the opposite problem when I saw them at Everton earlier in the year, with Pienaar and Baines absolutely ripping Pardew’s side apart down the other flank. Mind you, how relevant that is considering injuries meant Newcastle’s right side that night was James Perch and Sylvain Marveaux I’m not sure.

Coluccini is said to be Newcastle’s top earner, and the papers have Tiote down as one of the hottest properties this January, but both were poor at Craven Cottage. Tiote gave possession away carelessly countless times and if he does so again on Saturday QPR must commit men forward quickly and assertively, taking advantage of his absence from his position in front of the back four. Coluccini tried to be too cute with a sliding tackle and ended up losing the ball for the first Fulham goal, then got beaten in the air by Hugo Rodallega for the second, and Williamson is very poor alongside him as well so Djibril Cisse could have fun if he’s supported adequately. The recent home game with Wigan was nullified as a scouting exercise by an early sending off for the visitors but even then I noted Williamson and Coluccini taking needless chances in dangerous areas. This is not the day for QPR to isolate a lone striker in an overly defensive set up – numbers in and around the heart of the Newcastle defence will bring decent reward on the evidence of their recent matches.

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TacticalR added 13:46 - Dec 20 Thanks to Clive and James. As I've said in recent discussions about Liverpool, Newcastle seems to be the template for many other teams outside the top 4 who have realised that you can spend a lot less money and still avoid relegation. Perhaps the danger is that you can cut too far. It's also quite bizarre how the Europa League has become a curse to so many teams - how unloved that competition is. On MOTD Shearer pointed out that in the game against Man City Ba and Cissé didn't seem to be working together as a pair...Cissé was nowhere near enough to Ba to get any of Ba's knockdowns.

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DesertBoot added 01:11 - Dec 21 The fact the Ba thinks he's Europe's most wanted surely not helping them either. A confident Rangers can hopefully bring something back to London
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