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Predictions Revisited - part 2
Predictions Revisited - part 2
Friday, 28th May 2010 22:47

We bring you the final part of our look back at how we thought 2009-10 would transpire.

1st Rotherham United
What we said

Take last season's points deductions away, and no doubt we'd have been talking about a manager who had rescued a side from the depths of going bust to assembling a squad that had made the Play Offs. Throw in the ball and chain of the points deductions which once zero points had been achieved must have robbed all motivation for the season away, and you start to wonder what could have happened had Robins been given a fair hand to play with. Perhaps Robins time as manager will mirror his Man Utd experience of taking them to the lowest point and bringing them back from there. Given the extra funds he's been given to play with, its easy to see that happening for him with the Millers this time round.So with the calibre of their signings, the huge strides forward made last season and the excellent management by Robins, I think that Rotherham will be able to mount and sustain a successful Championship campaign. They won't have the pressure on them that other sides in the division may have, which could work to their advantage. Nothing is really expected of Rotherham, and anything top seven will be seen as an improvement rather than a disappointment.

Reality

When you consider that a few days after writing this that they went out and splashed whatever six figure sum on one of their promotion rivals' top scorer, then it's easy to look back on Rotherham's season and say that no matter whatever happens at Wembley this weekend, they have been the division's biggest underachievers of the season. And if their Wembley trip proves fruitless, then disappointment shouldn't even come close to describing their campaign. Obviously they did suffer the blow of losing manager Mark Robins to Barnsley early on, but we amongst many others had them down as promotion favourites before they signed Alfie. In many people's eyes this season, Rotherham have been nothing but Alfie. What happened to the rest of the squad which had us pinning our colours to their Sheffield based mast?

2nd Notts County
What we said

Will it work out for the Magpies? Well the majority of takeovers tend not to work out, especially those that come with some sort of fanfare and promises about where the side will be in five years time. It's reality that for every knight in shining armour, there are nine other unscrupulous owners looking to make money out of a lower division football club by fair means or foul. Looking at the County squad, contrary to popular conceptions, they haven't actually spent that much money so far. They've spent more than they would have done in your average Notts County Summer, and it is with funds in excess of their peers, but they've not gone Real Madrid style crazy with their spending, they've bought League Two players that were targets for other League Two sides, suggesting there's not this limitless pot of money that has been made out. When January comes along and the transfer window opens, County will gain the advantage of the teams they are competing with by playing the financial Ace up their sleeve. Conceding too many goals? Let's get some defenders in. Manager not working out? Get rid. Promotion rivals doing too well? Buy their best player. I don't think they'll win the title as there's too many question marks over McParland and some of the new signings to make the transition an easy one, but it is one which will end in automatic promotion.

Reality

There's a certain amount of smugness on our part when looking back on this prediction and highlighting that things weren't just adding up with the new takeover down at Meadow Lane. You don't go out and get a former England manager and a Premiership defender on a shopping list which also saw them visit the out of contract lists at Barnet and Bradford. Of course, we got it hopelessly wrong when we said the difference would be come the January transfer window when they would be able to strengthen in ways their promotion rivals could only dream of. That transfer window saw the start of the embargo meaning no new players stepped into Sol's boots, but it mattered little with a fantastic run of form following the signing of Steve Cotterill - an appointment which must go down as one of the all time great managerial appointments. The clichés have it spot on when calling it a rollercoaster season, and history will judge as to whether their critics were correct or not. Did Cotterill work magic, or did he merely highlight underachievement early in the season? Or does it not matter when you've got the trophy in the cabinet.

3rd Bury
What we said

So if its going to go wrong for Bury this season, it'll be that absence of creativity coupled with the paper thin squad, but there's more than enough evidence to suggest that its going to be another good season for the Shakers. They are strong in all areas, and no side will receive an easy game when facing them. One attribute they possess more than perhaps any other in the division is a lot of characters in the side - big personalities with bags of experience behind them, and that'll certainly ensure that they don't fall victim to any Play Off hangover from last season - if anything, they'll use that to spur themselves on to bigger and better things. Automatic promotion beckons for Bury. Sorry.

Reality

Oh dear Shakers, where did it all go wrong? There you were, sitting pretty on our coat tails which games in hand which gave them a platform to overtake ourselves and then they went on a run that mirrored our end of the season. The only difference was that our run came when promotion was in the bag, whilst Bury's came just when the going got tough. I'm sure there's a million different theories as to why things went wrong, but it did come at a similar time of the season when a new contract was offered and rejected to Stephen Dawson, whilst the rest of the players were told to await the end of the season. Despite the perfectly understandable reasons for doing so, there's no room for favouritism in a team game, and Bury were found wanting at a time when they had their biggest squad of the season to pick from. At least it put an end to the "one season behind Hill" stories.

4th Lincoln City
What we said

If there was one team who disappointed us last season, it was Lincoln. We had them down as being our tip for automatic promotion, describing them as a team with potential who had made key signings over the Summer to lift them amongst the challengers. So looking overall at Lincoln's squad now, I think it's fair to say that Jackson has repaired the damage of the departures, and in doing so has gone with younger, hungrier players than he did a year ago to solve that goalscoring issue, and if they can get off to a better start than they did last season (and to be fair, they can hardly do worse), then they've got a real chance of getting some momentum going.

Reality

So for the season season on the trot, I tip Lincoln to do well and they go and have a season that aspired to monotony. The ingredients all seemed there, with a decent manager, promising signings etc but it all just fell away very early on, and it was a season spent looking down rather than up. Funnily enough, given their end to the last season and initial movements in the Summer transfer market, I've been thinking that they look a decent bet for next season. Will I ever learn?

5th Northampton Town
What we said

My memories of Northampton in this division would suggest that Gray may be gone before the leaves have dropped off the trees. This might be complete rubbish, but I do have this recollection that when the Cobblers have been relegated to this division, they are usually awful for the first two or three months of the season, sacking their manager and then embarking on a run as good as any side in the division and sneaking either into the Play Offs or automatic promotion spots during the last weekend of the season. I'm expecting a very similar season to what (in my head at least) happens to Northampton every time they're down here. Dreadfully poor till Novemberish, Gray gets the boot, and then they start a no nonsense onslaught on League Two.

Reality

For a long while, it seemed like my Northampton prediction was eerily spot on. It was only a dip in form in the last four or five games when they suffered a number of key injuries that stopped them sneaking into the Play Offs that stopped it becoming true. Credit must be given to the Cobblers hierarchy for sticking by Ian Sampson after a dreadful start as Caretaker manager. We have often talked about how Chris Dunphy had no option but to give Hill the job after his time as caretaker boss, but Sampson lost his first three games in charge, conceding ten goals in the process including a home defeat to our very good selves.

6th Chesterfield
What we said

There's clear improvements at Saltergate and with a new manager at the helm, new stadium on the horizon at long last, there's a real feeling of optimism about the place, or at least there should be. Despite their ability to name the oldest side ever known at this level since the days when Frank Worthington was calling last rites on his career, we think there's a touch of either now or never for the Spireites, and the board will be keen to start the new season in a higher division which could be the difference between pushing on and consolidation when the January transfer window comes along. Either way, it's a step up for Chesterfield as they put the Richardson era well and truly behind them.

Reality

I just don't get Chesterfield. For years, they seemed to be held back by Richardson, but when they replaced him with Sheridan - a manager who had done alright at Oldham, it was as if nothing had changed. They still seemed intent on ensuring that they finished 8th all season long. Obviously, they were good enough on their day to beat anybody but equally, they were fair game for anybody too. Of course, they weren't helped by injuries to Jack Lester throughout the season, though equally you have to expect them of players of his age, and its not like they had a pittance of a budget. You could argue that they only fell short by a couple of points but not quite being good enough was the epitaph to their season.

7th Rochdale
What we said

We have a settled squad, one which is marginally better than it was last season (and certainly not weaker) and perhaps we are now better equipped to dealing with situations like our captain missing half the season through injury, and whilst we'd all like another couple of players in the squad (with "we" including both the board and the management) to help push to that next level, realistically we have to make the best of what we have, without putting the future of the club at risk. This squad has proved itself to be more than just capable of competing in this division, with away victories at two of the top three sides last season, and whilst the cover within the squad might be slightly thinner, it still remains and there is always an answer to "What happens if.......". For us not to make the Play Offs again this season, look at our peers and ask yourself, have we become a worse side over the Summer than Shrewsbury, than Morecambe, than Bradford, than Dagenham etc. There's very few teams who I would say have strengthened with many visibly weaker than last time round. So all in all, it will be Play Offs again for Dale this season

Reality

When we stuck our Dale prediction online, general consensus was that we were letting our heart rule our head and that if we got anywhere close to the Play Offs then we'd had a tremendous season. It's difficult to remember just what a depressing time last Summer was. According to the messageboard. Our justification for predicting a good season was simple. Whilst we felt we hadn't strengthened how we'd have liked (if we don't sign Stephen Foster from Darlo, we'll be forced into playing this 18 year old kid in defence.....), we saw the same feelings up and down the country as financial reality started to hit home amongst Division Four. And if everyone was feeling the same way, then surely things can't be as bad as they seemed. Of course, the emergence of Dawson and the signing of O'Grady could not be foreseen, but we did suggest to Dale supporters that under Keith Hill we finished the season with key players being those who started the season as fledglings. Oh how I wish I put Dawson instead of Brizzle, Brown or Byrne. But despite my own optimistic feelings, not even in my wildest dreams did I anticipate anything close to what we had. One day 2009-10 will properly sink in, probably when we see some other side sweeping aside everyone who got in their way. Now if only we hadn't sung that song at Accrington, then we could have had some silverware.

8th Morecambe
What we said Given that this will be their last season at Christie Park, it might just give them that little bit a lift to help push them up the table. But will it be enough to make the top seven? Probably not, but who'd have predicted Exeter finishing second last season? Anything is possible in this division. But I think making the top seven may be just that bit too far for them. They'll come close and it will certainly bring optimism to the first season at the new stadium in 2010-11, but they won't be kicking off the new stadium with a new division.
Reality

I hope for the sake of the supporters of Morecambe that the play off humiliation at Dagenham does not become the abiding memory of the 2009-10 season for them, for it was an awful finish to what was their best ever season, and for them to reach the play offs ahead of sides like Bury, Chesterfield, Bradford, Shrewsbury etc who all had budgets way ahead of the Shrimps, then its something they should be massively proud of. It can only be down to McIlroy, annoying dummy spitter that he is, their success or possibly my own ignorance that when looking at the Morecambe side, there is no stand out reason why they did as well as they did. There was never a chance of them having a player in the PFA Divisional side, but I'm sure supporters of Crewe or Bury saw little comfort in this.

9th Shrewsbury Town
What we said

Given that we feel that they are weaker than twelve months ago, and as such won't finish as high as last time round. Simpson has shown that when the pressure rises, which it will this year for him, he doesn't respond well to it, and it could drag Shrewsbury further down.
There's still plenty of quality there, and they were far from being the one man team they were incorrectly labelled last season, but I don't see anything within the Shrewsbury camp now to make them stand out from all the sides chasing the promotion places, and whilst you can look at their peers and pick out the potential match winners. Such a signing may well arrive, but you're pinning your hopes on a player who hasn't even signed yet. A season spent looking back at 2008-9 and wondering what could and should have been beckons for Shrews, as they ponder whether they've missed their golden opportunity.

Reality

Oh Paul, we're sorry for giving you false hope by tipping you to finish so high up. In much the same way as Steve Parkin's second spell at Dale, you can split it into two halves. The time with Grant Holt, and the time without, and in both cases, the Holt days merely hid the weaknesses in the camp that became all too obvious following his departure. It was certainly a season to forget for the Shrews, and despite being given funds to do so, Simmo proved that Holt was an impossible act to follow, with his replacements proving to be financial disasters. It wasn't helped either by another discarded striker Constable grabbing the goals to help Oxford to promotion. A season that started wanting automatic promotion before hoping for the play offs  and eventually desperate to consign 2009-10 to the history books.

10th Hereford United
What we said

Hereford have proved in the past that they can make excellent use of the loan system, and we'd fully expect more of the same from that this season. Their current squad is a tad short on numbers, but those players might be simply there to support the loan players that come in to build a side around as they did in 2008. So its perhaps with no real conviction that we stick Hereford down for a tenth placed finish - we wouldn't be overly surprised if it all went horribly wrong, but we're happy enough to go with tenth for now. Certain signings might carry question marks, but they're at least making signings which puts them at an advantage over many teams in this division who have cut the cloth to napkin size proportions over the Summer. That'll make a difference but not enough to repeat the marvels of 2008.

Reality

We said we had no conviction for them finishing tenth, and that was perhaps the only thing that we got right about them. They had all the hallmarks of a side that had been relegated back to League Two without a whiff of what got them up to League One in the first place. Perhaps it merely highlighted that they got somewhat lucky with their choice of loan signings back in 2007-8 or whenever it was that they went up, but they showed nothing this past season, and no one would have batted an eyelid had they dropped into the Blue Square once again.

11th Torquay United
What we said

Overall it's perhaps a bit of a strange prediction this for us, basing things on what has gone on in previous years involving other sides rather than on what Torquay actually have about them. It's that sort of thinking which led to people having human sacrifices to the Harvest Gods. After all, what relevance does Exeter City of last season have on Torquay United of this season? But there's enough gone on previously for us to think that there must be something behind it all, and that's why we're prepared to put Torquay significantly higher than what we ordinarily might do. We have concerns about the size of their squad and the age of some of them, but they do at least have someone who will score goals and looks a cracking bet for League Two top scorer at 40-1 (Rendell). Eleventh place for the Gulls, but we won't be surprised where they end up this next season.

Reality

This was always a bit of a stab in the dark this. The basis behind a finish of 11th was mostly down to what the likes of Doncaster and Exeter had done previously Conference Play Off winners but given what we witnessed and suffered at Plainmoor when we headed en masse to celebrate promotion, then a finish of 11th would have been something of a disappointment for the Gulls, such was their overall fantasticness on the day. The fact that they were a side seen to be within the sights of Grimsby at the time made the day a little surreal, but results following their 5-0 thumping of ourselves showed that it was no one off fluke. Of course, their overall final position was probably described by an inconsistency that saw their display at Spotland as one of the weakest of any side throughout the season.

12th Bradford City
What we said

Comparing squad quality from this season to last, I'd have to say that they are marginally worse off this time round and as such I can't see them finishing as high as they did last season, especially when their true position of 9th last season was actually 11th taking the points deductions into account. I think a failure to compete at the top will see the cracks start showing with McCall this year, and surely the Bantams supporters cannot tolerate another season of suffering defeats to teams who are minnows in comparison and settling for a place in the league table alongside the likes of Morecambe and Dagenham. It's not going to be pleasant, and whilst there are many teams who would snap their hand off now for a position of 12th, is that really good enough for Bradford City?

Reality

I wasn't exactly holding out much hope for Bradford's season, but I never anticipated that it was ever going to be quite as bad as it actually was. The signs were there last Summer. Now this is genuinely meant as no disrespect to Simon Ramsden, who served us well, but when the likes of Ramsden is held as one of your sides best players, then you know you have issues. Unless your right back is Cafu, full backs are there to do their job and not be noticed. But the volume of plaudits for Ramsden amongst the Bantams faithful reinforced just how bad the rest of them must have been. Time will tell as to whether Peter Taylor can succeed where McCall so spectacularly failed, but Taylor is fast getting himself a reputation as a managerial Bradford City, and I doubt the Bradford fans will search for every positive going as they did with his predecessor.

Photo: Action Images



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