| Lies, damn lies and statistics 13:41 - Feb 16 with 764 views | wessex_exile |
Since our draw at Barrow back in early November we've played 17 league games, with seven victories, eight draws and just two defeats. That's an average points per game of just under 1.71 points. If we maintain this form over the remaining 16 games, we'll finish on about 68-69 points, and almost certainly not quite enough for the play-offs.
This time last season (i.e. Match #30 or thereabouts) the fourth team in the play-offs (Harrogate Town) were on 47 points. This season, it's Crewe Alexandra on 49 points, so two points better. At the end of last season, Crawley took the last play-off place on 70 points, so reasonable to assume this season the target is probably going to be 72-73 points.
So, we'd be 3-4 points short, unless of course we can turn at least two more draws into victories - certainly not impossible (but for a goalkeeping worldy yesterday we could have won that one for sure). We do, however, have some tricky games to come, but it's definitely doable. For context, the last sixteen games of last season included games against six of the top seven sides, albeit we only averaged a point per game in the run in.
Incidentally, we're only four points short of equally our entire points total for 2023/24. |  |
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| Lies, damn lies and statistics on 21:46 - Feb 16 with 687 views | durham_exile |
Some great stats there Wessex.
I am still confident of a top seven finish this season.
However Simpson should be returned to Stevenage ASAP.
I saw his debut at Harrogate recently and thought ok benefit of the doubt. But at Brunton Park on Saturday he was simply awful.
I would rather see some of the young strikers that we have signed until Samson is back.
Up the U's |  |
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| Lies, damn lies and statistics on 22:12 - Feb 16 with 680 views | MarkyMark47 |
| Lies, damn lies and statistics on 21:46 - Feb 16 by durham_exile |
Some great stats there Wessex.
I am still confident of a top seven finish this season.
However Simpson should be returned to Stevenage ASAP.
I saw his debut at Harrogate recently and thought ok benefit of the doubt. But at Brunton Park on Saturday he was simply awful.
I would rather see some of the young strikers that we have signed until Samson is back.
Up the U's |
Agree. He looks heavy and ponderous. The only thing that gives me pause for thought is that I felt the same way about Taylor at the start of the season and now he is our hero! |  | | |
| Lies, damn lies and statistics on 13:58 - Feb 17 with 595 views | RSCOSWORTH |
There have been times when 68 or 69 points has been enough for 7th in League Two and Lincoln got in on 66 points in 2005-06 but generally, as wessex suggested, you need 70+ points and even then it's sometimes not enough. We got 70 points in 2018-19 season and finished 8th and more recently Sutton got 76 points in 2021-22 and still missed out. For me we've left ourselves too much to do and it's not like we've got to overcome just one team to finish 7th, there are nine clubs within nine points of 7th spot and all of them have at least one game in hand. I guess the one thing that does work in our favour is that we've got to play most of the teams around us in the table so we do have the opportunity to take points off them. 30+ points from 16 games though is a massive ask from a team that has only won nine in the league this season. In the last 19 seasons, not including 2019-20 due to Covid, our best return from our last 16 matches has been 25 points back in 2016-17 and we average less than 20 points. I think it's maybe a season too soon for us.
20 years ago we finished 15th in League One with 59 points. We had one of the best defences in the division and a positive goal difference but we drew too many games. Sound familiar? We all know what happened the following season... |  |
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| Lies, damn lies and statistics on 21:31 - Feb 17 with 509 views | wessex_exile |
| Lies, damn lies and statistics on 13:58 - Feb 17 by RSCOSWORTH |
There have been times when 68 or 69 points has been enough for 7th in League Two and Lincoln got in on 66 points in 2005-06 but generally, as wessex suggested, you need 70+ points and even then it's sometimes not enough. We got 70 points in 2018-19 season and finished 8th and more recently Sutton got 76 points in 2021-22 and still missed out. For me we've left ourselves too much to do and it's not like we've got to overcome just one team to finish 7th, there are nine clubs within nine points of 7th spot and all of them have at least one game in hand. I guess the one thing that does work in our favour is that we've got to play most of the teams around us in the table so we do have the opportunity to take points off them. 30+ points from 16 games though is a massive ask from a team that has only won nine in the league this season. In the last 19 seasons, not including 2019-20 due to Covid, our best return from our last 16 matches has been 25 points back in 2016-17 and we average less than 20 points. I think it's maybe a season too soon for us.
20 years ago we finished 15th in League One with 59 points. We had one of the best defences in the division and a positive goal difference but we drew too many games. Sound familiar? We all know what happened the following season... |
Excellent research RS! Much as I often sip at Durham's kool-aid fountain, I think I agree that as things stand it probably is a season too soon for the Cowley's U's. However, six points from the next two and it's definitely still on, even four points keeps the dream alive. Three (or less) and I think we just have to consolidate, finish as strong as we can and prepare for next season.
Sadly, I also agree about Tyreece. I think he has potential, but not good enough for the team as they are currently performing. I wouldn't send him back, maybe a few months on the training pitch and a few cameo appearances from the bench can bring him up to the standard we need in the final run-in? | |
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| Lies, damn lies and statistics on 07:03 - Feb 18 with 457 views | noah4x4 |
Irrespective of the statistics and probabilities, I believe it’s not in our interest to be promoted this season. After years of disappointment, can’t we simply enjoy a winning streak and an upper half finish?
We are too dependent on loanees and our fabled academy isn’t yet producing the conveyor belt of talent expected. After the euphoria of this season (e.g. relative to the misery of the last ten), I’d hate to see us in League One immediately losing every week and struggling to stay up. We are only just starting to woo back the fickle fans lost after the move from Layer Road and many seasons of despair. If our progressively rising gates collapsed because the team slumped (yet) again, pressure then falls on the Cowleys with no available money to bolster the squad to League One standard.
I think we should enjoy the moment, and like in the Parkinson era, look to achieve any promotion ambition in year two of the Cowleys tenure, when they will have had the benefit of three transfer windows to shuffle the pack, and enough time to build the fan base for revenues to grow the budget in line with Financial Fair Play rules. Remember, our wage bill is limited by the numbers through the turnstiles. Mid-table League Two isn’t a bad place to be. Southend, Oldham, and soon Morecambe, Carlisle or Tranmere fans will confirm.
As regards Tyreece, he reminds me of Sunday Wasu, but less athletic. If he doesn’t know what he is doing, he might baffle a few defences. But we run a sweepstake on how often he touches the ball in his current short cameos. [Post edited 18 Feb 7:08]
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| Lies, damn lies and statistics on 10:01 - Feb 18 with 406 views | RSCOSWORTH |
| Lies, damn lies and statistics on 07:03 - Feb 18 by noah4x4 |
Irrespective of the statistics and probabilities, I believe it’s not in our interest to be promoted this season. After years of disappointment, can’t we simply enjoy a winning streak and an upper half finish?
We are too dependent on loanees and our fabled academy isn’t yet producing the conveyor belt of talent expected. After the euphoria of this season (e.g. relative to the misery of the last ten), I’d hate to see us in League One immediately losing every week and struggling to stay up. We are only just starting to woo back the fickle fans lost after the move from Layer Road and many seasons of despair. If our progressively rising gates collapsed because the team slumped (yet) again, pressure then falls on the Cowleys with no available money to bolster the squad to League One standard.
I think we should enjoy the moment, and like in the Parkinson era, look to achieve any promotion ambition in year two of the Cowleys tenure, when they will have had the benefit of three transfer windows to shuffle the pack, and enough time to build the fan base for revenues to grow the budget in line with Financial Fair Play rules. Remember, our wage bill is limited by the numbers through the turnstiles. Mid-table League Two isn’t a bad place to be. Southend, Oldham, and soon Morecambe, Carlisle or Tranmere fans will confirm.
As regards Tyreece, he reminds me of Sunday Wasu, but less athletic. If he doesn’t know what he is doing, he might baffle a few defences. But we run a sweepstake on how often he touches the ball in his current short cameos. [Post edited 18 Feb 7:08]
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I agree with a lot of what you're saying but too dependent on loanees? Apart from McDonnell we're barely playing any loanees currently. We have a few in the squad right now but I think most are here to see if they'd be right for a permanent signing. I would actually suggest this is arguably the least dependent we've been on loanees for quite some time. | |
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| Lies, damn lies and statistics on 11:15 - Feb 18 with 385 views | BLACKCAT |
I'm afraid promotion is probably too much to ask for this season. But if it could be achieved I don't think it would be something to fear. With the Cowleys in charge and providing Mr Cowling gives them a reasonable budget in the summer I'd expect Colchester United to have enough to survive in League One.
Anyway, let's hope promotion isn't looking even less likely after tonight's trip to Meadow Lane. |  | | |
| Lies, damn lies and statistics on 12:16 - Feb 18 with 371 views | Moor_Pinot |
| Lies, damn lies and statistics on 07:03 - Feb 18 by noah4x4 |
Irrespective of the statistics and probabilities, I believe it’s not in our interest to be promoted this season. After years of disappointment, can’t we simply enjoy a winning streak and an upper half finish?
We are too dependent on loanees and our fabled academy isn’t yet producing the conveyor belt of talent expected. After the euphoria of this season (e.g. relative to the misery of the last ten), I’d hate to see us in League One immediately losing every week and struggling to stay up. We are only just starting to woo back the fickle fans lost after the move from Layer Road and many seasons of despair. If our progressively rising gates collapsed because the team slumped (yet) again, pressure then falls on the Cowleys with no available money to bolster the squad to League One standard.
I think we should enjoy the moment, and like in the Parkinson era, look to achieve any promotion ambition in year two of the Cowleys tenure, when they will have had the benefit of three transfer windows to shuffle the pack, and enough time to build the fan base for revenues to grow the budget in line with Financial Fair Play rules. Remember, our wage bill is limited by the numbers through the turnstiles. Mid-table League Two isn’t a bad place to be. Southend, Oldham, and soon Morecambe, Carlisle or Tranmere fans will confirm.
As regards Tyreece, he reminds me of Sunday Wasu, but less athletic. If he doesn’t know what he is doing, he might baffle a few defences. But we run a sweepstake on how often he touches the ball in his current short cameos. [Post edited 18 Feb 7:08]
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Many of us feel huge relief that our club are not embroiled at the bottom of the league as in the recent past. I for one am relieved and view top ten as massive.
To halt, then turn around this juggernaut of failure - almost cultural it's seemed - in just over a year is a fine achievement which I didn't anticipate.
Going up, only to be immediately relegated just as our team is receiving a boost in its support through the gate would be a significant wound. Better to finish well then go well again in August to see what happens. Many sides soon return to division two almost immediately. Carlisle did and now look...... Cheltenham didn't last long. Cambridge and Crawley are destined for relegation and all of 'em start with a 'C', err.......as do we . Northampton's place is precarious. Only Stevenage have been a surprise. We don't have the Stockport Wrexham Bradford City (underachievers) Chesterfield support level which obviously translates to income and recruitment. I'm excited by now but moreso about the future.
Upwards the U's
And two wins this week would be terrific stuff ! |  |
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