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at 15:24 10 Jul 2024

Rotherham Keeper buys fans 600 pints
at 14:01 2 May 2024

What QPR player past or present owes us a pint of plain?
at 10:36 4 Dec 2023

If like me you've found twitter, sorry, sorry, sorry X increasingly unusable with its ads for gun holsters and its owner endorsing antisemitic conspiracy theories, perhaps you've looked to other social platforms for a hit. But where!

I've joined bluesky which is a spin off for the original twitter devs and very much feels like twitter in 2014 (i.e the halycon days). It's a bit quiet as it's in beta but I much prefer it to Threads which is a typical Zuckerberg mess.

But there's a big issue with the platform! There's so few Rs on it!

I have 4 invite codes, DM me if you want one (purely so we get interested parties and not someone who signs up and never posts) to ensure Rangers feel massive on it
robith's Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 2022/23
at 14:07 10 Oct 2022

Seems like an apropos moment to bring back this thread for I believe its 4th iteration. Bit earlier than usual, but when I leave to too late getting the historical numbers is a real pain.

Welcome back to the numerical rollercoaster - last year's was the most traumatic yet!

The idea is to provide some context to our performance throughout the season. We'll be using historical precedent (the average for the last 8 years for automatic promotion, 6th and beating 22nd) and the context of how the current season is performing .

Historical Precedent

Automatic = 1.93 points per game
Plays offs = 1.64 points per game
Survival = 1.00 points per game

Our current trajectory is 1.85 PPG, with a forecast points total of 85 (rounded)

If we convert this to an index, where 1 is hitting the target needed

Automatic index: 0.95
Play Off Index 1.13
Survival Index 1.85

So far this season survival and play offs are exactly in line with historical precedent - but automatics are mildly behind.

But a really positive start! Most importantly having played 28% of our matches, we have 52% of the points needed to stay up!

Commence graphs

vs our historical averagres

Comparable start to previous years - perhaps key will be avoiding those prolonged "points plateaus" that were a feature of Warbz time

Weekly look at how we're faring vs key positions. 22nd left in the mud

Current trajectories. With 13 games gone the variance is low, but shows how competitive things are right now. Still, in a lovely spot

Will update probably fortnightly until things really heat up
[Post edited 10 Oct 2022 14:08]
at 09:35 24 Feb 2022

I thought he deserved his own thread. He's had an up and down time since signing - but he made a big contribution on Saturday, and last night he was just...relentless. He didn't stop, I thought he did outstandingly well, and was a big part of the rear-guard action.

Let's hope this marks the start of a bit more of a consistent run for him, co there's a good player there if so
DUNE (2021) (Part One)
at 11:43 9 Nov 2021

Any fans on the board?

I've been to see it twice already. A truly stunning cinematic experience, and emphasis on experience. Some minor pacing quibbles, but I thought it was astonishing, borderline masterpiece.

I serve only one master, and his name is Shai-Hulud
robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread
at 16:29 4 Nov 2021

Hello Fellow Rs,

Some of you may remember from years gone by I have run a thread where we track our chances of making promotion, and inevitably how many points we need to avoid relegation.

I had to stop making it just before COVID, as I had my laptop stolen which had the valuable excel sheet stuck on it.

Well, what I can tell you is OneDrive is a magical thing. It has been in the cloud all this time!

I have fixed it up and updated it for the season to date, so prepare to join me on the journey!

Historical Precedent

The average points needed to make the playoffs over the last 7 years is 75
The average points needed to avoid relegation over the last 7 years is 46

Handily the median for both is also 75 and 46, meaning there isn't one season warping our numbers

Plays offs there fore = 1.57 points per game
Survival = 0.97 points per game

Our current trajectory is 1.562 PPG, with a forecast points total of 72

If we convert this to an index, where 1 is hitting the target needed

Play Off Index 0.99
Survival Index 1.61

We are in an around the PPG total we need, but our current points trajectory only gets us to the play offs once in the last 7 years.

Now obviously we need a real world comparison too. Usually around the half way point of the season when the table is a bit more fixed, I'll start to compare each week vs the team in 6th and 21st and their trajectory.

Bossing last season, though obviously we had a pretty rough 1st half of the season

This shows our forecast points based on PPG by week and where it would've got us last season. As you can see historically we'd need to get just a little better to get over 75 to be in with a shot

TL;DR - we're in the mix for sure, but at the 5/6th marker rather than guaranteed play offs.

I'll update weekly(ish)
[Post edited 8 Nov 2021 10:32]
How did you celebrate Dom's Blooter?
at 12:55 2 Nov 2020

Obviously if we'd been there it would've been full #LIMBZ and I'd have been trying to stop the auld fella running on the pitch.

As it was, it was ou first real "moment" of behind closed doors.

I was watching in my bedroom on my laptop and couldn't really see the ball go in - i was looking for it carrying over the bar tbh. I noticed the same time as the comms guys, leapt up, sent my bedside table flying. My wife ran in cos she thought I'd had a heart attack or something.

Deffo would've got the first round in down the ShepFlo afterwards, probably have gotten home at 1am. First time I've genuinely missed being there. So thought it might be nice to share the disparate ways it was celebrated
[Post edited 2 Nov 2020 12:56]
The Smallest Space You've Seen the Biggest Band in
at 11:44 9 Apr 2020

A trend I noticed in the best gig/worst gig a lot of people seen some big bands in small spaces, and I thought a nice brag thread was in order.

Maybe we could even work out a ratio like record sales divided by capacity!

Saw Arctic Monkeys in the cluny in Newcastle. They weren't even the headline act (MIlburn were LOLOLOLOL)

Saw Coldpay at ULU. Couldn't have imagined the scale they'd reach

Not terribly small, but I saw blur at their Astoria residency in 2003. Being in the front couple of rows it felt insane to see a band of that size in that venue

Saw Arcade Fire at a church in Westminster. It was rubbish. I was gutted
Crowd on Saturday
at 09:24 9 Dec 2019

Took a bit of time to warm up, but after all the stories of online abuse in the week, I was really taken aback by just how supportive the crowd was on Saturday. Everyone was right behind the players, full of positive support and everyone seemed genuinely chuffed with the clean sheet at the whistle.

Probably my favourite home match of the season thus far
Robith's Relegation Index 19/20
at 10:25 16 Sep 2019

Hello fellow travellers of the night.

You may remember this thread from last year where I tried to create a way of seeing our chances of survival (aside from the brief fortnight we thought we were gonna make the play offs). I had planned to bring it back, and had some nice feedback that people wanted to see it again. Now we've played 15% of our game it feels robust enough to have a look

Also, others made great contributions too, so maybe this could be a catch all stats thread

From last year - "So I've tried to create a basic statistics system to see. Totally based in the numbers we need to post rather than subjective analysis of how games have gone.

So each week I'll post the index of our chance of survival. Indices work by converting separate numbers into a base (which is scored as 100) and working out how more or less likely an outcome is. 120 is the mark for something significantly being likely to happen, 80 is the mark for something being significantly unlikely to happen."

So in summary - 100 equals standard. Above 100 = good, below 100=bad

I've taken the average points for the last 5 years. Play offs = 76.2. Survival = 46.6

Survival: 191

Play Offs: 117

Interestingly though when we look at vs the same results last year (so discounting Hudd & Luton) we have 9 points vs last year's 10. I've built this in this year so will keep monitoring it.

Encouraging start. 28% of points for survival accomplished already.

Six Nations Thread 2019
at 09:19 30 Jan 2019

It's that time of year again

IN BEFORE - posh people taking over pubs and not drinking. It's been done lads

Intriguing year this year pre World Cup. Some talk teams should blood players, but imo that should have been done already. This is about making sure your team is battle hardened and firing.

England have absolutely lost the plot imo. Trying to play mind games with the second most professional set of players in the world and posting videos of them trying to copy Ireland's tactics waving pool noodles at people. Gonna be quite embarrassing when Ireland grind them into dust.

Ireland - last year I felt like we should be winning by default with everyone else's injuries, but in that process they seemed to find the confidence to drive on to ever new heights. Leinster are dominating the European game. We'll have a target on us and we'll relish it - but this is a test of how good we actually are and how we've manged to negate our bottle job heritage.

Wales are the quiet ones to watch. They've steadily been racking up wins, look refreshed with some new personnel, and got that Australia win monkey off their backs. I'm going to Wales Ireland final game and I'm expecting it to be the decider.

Scotland - won't win but are bloody good fun to watch. France and Italy remain rubbish.

Some of you may remember that I tried to start a rugby podcast last year - and I've put a bit of effort in to get it off the ground again this year. If Clive's ok with self promotion, you can listen to it here, or search for Numbers! in the itunes store!
Grant Hall interview
at 14:50 10 Jan 2019

Sorry if it's been posted elsewhere but couldn't see a thread

Pretty raw interview with Hall about his injury problems and the dark places that go alongside it.

And a reminder that it's ok to talk about your feelings, it's ok to be sad, and there's always someone to listen
at 09:47 17 Dec 2018

Absolutely gutted - I've been backing a red card the last few weeks FFS
Any club historians with time to spare?
at 16:38 6 Nov 2018

Hello everyone. A mate of mine who I play cricket with is a member of the running club Queens Park Harriers, and is currently writing a history of their club.

It transpires we were both the same entity until we began to focus on football.

He asked me for help and I thought I'd pass it on. Anyone got any knowledge of the early days of the club, or know some people I can connect him with who might know some stuff on our history?
Robith's Relegation Index
at 09:42 3 Oct 2018

I think we can all agree that our primary objective this year needs to be first and foremost to stay up. Further it's been say a mixed bag of a season, where even I, the perennial happy clapper was calling for the manager to be sacked after 5 games. I saw a comment in Brian's thread of someone saying "well, they'll just say Reading were crap" and that got me thinking. Yeah people will.

So I've tried to create a basic statistics system to see. Totally based in the numbers we need to post rather than subjective analysis of how games have gone.

So each week I'll post the index of our chance of survival. Indices work by converting separate numbers into a base (which is scored as 100) and working out how more or less likely an outcome is. 120 is the mark for something significantly being likely to happen, 80 is the mark for something being significantly unlikely to happen.

I've set the base for safety at 50 points. Can revise on feedback

So Gameweek 11:

Played: 11/46 - 24% of games played

Points: 13/50 - 26% of points needed

Based on this our current survival index is 109

At this stage we look like staying up, but it's not a sure thing - we're tracking very close to the baseline run rate.

Stay tuned for more exciting stats action as it comes
Club sent me an email wishing me happy birthday today
at 12:47 14 May 2018

They *may* want to update their CRM materials

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