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I think we can all agree that our primary objective this year needs to be first and foremost to stay up. Further it's been say a mixed bag of a season, where even I, the perennial happy clapper was calling for the manager to be sacked after 5 games. I saw a comment in Brian's thread of someone saying "well, they'll just say Reading were crap" and that got me thinking. Yeah people will.
So I've tried to create a basic statistics system to see. Totally based in the numbers we need to post rather than subjective analysis of how games have gone.
So each week I'll post the index of our chance of survival. Indices work by converting separate numbers into a base (which is scored as 100) and working out how more or less likely an outcome is. 120 is the mark for something significantly being likely to happen, 80 is the mark for something being significantly unlikely to happen.
I've set the base for safety at 50 points. Can revise on feedback
So Gameweek 11:
Played: 11/46 - 24% of games played
Points: 13/50 - 26% of points needed
Based on this our current survival index is 109
At this stage we look like staying up, but it's not a sure thing - we're tracking very close to the baseline run rate.
Stay tuned for more exciting stats action as it comes
8
Robith's Relegation Index on 10:34 - Oct 3 with 13189 views
It did occur to me last night when driving home that we're suddenly a quarter of the way through the season. It's been a blast.
My method was more rudimentary: quarter games played = 13 points, end of season = 52 - except, of course, it never works like that.
As with last season, beating the teams around us in the bottom half (plus the odd unexpected wins against some of the better teams) will keep us up - that's why last night's result may be very important come May.
I'm staying tuned for your relegation roulette - agree 50 should see us safe.
"Thank you for supporting Queens Park Rangers Steep Staircase"... and I thought I'd signed up for a rollercoaster.
If you have more time on your hands, how about another stat perspective, where instead of the base being 50 points, base it on the current bottom 3's points!
I think there will emerge (by mid Nov) about 3 leagues within the Championship this year.
The Good
The Erratic
The Crap.
Broadly speaking, we’re top of The Crap, at present. We’ve really only outplayed those beneath us, and have been tonked by the top lot.
Last year, we were frustratingly the worst of The Erratic, but you could argue we had a stronger defence and keeper. We beat Wolves and Sheffield Utd in one week when they were both top, but struggled against everyone but Brum away from home.
With Wells and Hemed, I think we should certainly be winning The Crap mini league. I’d like to see a settled 4231 shape (call it 4411 with two holding CMs if you like) with Eze at 10 and Pav on the right as a true winger for a while and see if we can break into The Erratic miki league with a few cracking results against teams in The Good mini league. If we can’t I think you can fairly argue McClaren has taken us backwards. If we do, you can argue we’ve moved forward a little.
I think McClaren was hired to take us from bottom of The Erratic league, where the idea was Holloway would never improve us from (quite possibly true), and take us to near top of The Erratic, which is broadly top 10, winning more than we’re losing. This would then set us up to try to progress into The Good mini league the following year.
Derby on Sat will be a good indicator.
7
Robith's Relegation Index on 12:59 - Oct 3 with 12947 views
Robith's Relegation Index on 12:39 - Oct 3 by Hunterhoop
Rob,
I think there will emerge (by mid Nov) about 3 leagues within the Championship this year.
The Good
The Erratic
The Crap.
Broadly speaking, we’re top of The Crap, at present. We’ve really only outplayed those beneath us, and have been tonked by the top lot.
Last year, we were frustratingly the worst of The Erratic, but you could argue we had a stronger defence and keeper. We beat Wolves and Sheffield Utd in one week when they were both top, but struggled against everyone but Brum away from home.
With Wells and Hemed, I think we should certainly be winning The Crap mini league. I’d like to see a settled 4231 shape (call it 4411 with two holding CMs if you like) with Eze at 10 and Pav on the right as a true winger for a while and see if we can break into The Erratic miki league with a few cracking results against teams in The Good mini league. If we can’t I think you can fairly argue McClaren has taken us backwards. If we do, you can argue we’ve moved forward a little.
I think McClaren was hired to take us from bottom of The Erratic league, where the idea was Holloway would never improve us from (quite possibly true), and take us to near top of The Erratic, which is broadly top 10, winning more than we’re losing. This would then set us up to try to progress into The Good mini league the following year.
Derby on Sat will be a good indicator.
But what about when we're crap and erratic?
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
Robith's Relegation Index on 12:39 - Oct 3 by Hunterhoop
Rob,
I think there will emerge (by mid Nov) about 3 leagues within the Championship this year.
The Good
The Erratic
The Crap.
Broadly speaking, we’re top of The Crap, at present. We’ve really only outplayed those beneath us, and have been tonked by the top lot.
Last year, we were frustratingly the worst of The Erratic, but you could argue we had a stronger defence and keeper. We beat Wolves and Sheffield Utd in one week when they were both top, but struggled against everyone but Brum away from home.
With Wells and Hemed, I think we should certainly be winning The Crap mini league. I’d like to see a settled 4231 shape (call it 4411 with two holding CMs if you like) with Eze at 10 and Pav on the right as a true winger for a while and see if we can break into The Erratic miki league with a few cracking results against teams in The Good mini league. If we can’t I think you can fairly argue McClaren has taken us backwards. If we do, you can argue we’ve moved forward a little.
I think McClaren was hired to take us from bottom of The Erratic league, where the idea was Holloway would never improve us from (quite possibly true), and take us to near top of The Erratic, which is broadly top 10, winning more than we’re losing. This would then set us up to try to progress into The Good mini league the following year.
Derby on Sat will be a good indicator.
I bet you go a big rubbery one over the Nations League
Robith's Relegation Index on 12:39 - Oct 3 by Hunterhoop
Rob,
I think there will emerge (by mid Nov) about 3 leagues within the Championship this year.
The Good
The Erratic
The Crap.
Broadly speaking, we’re top of The Crap, at present. We’ve really only outplayed those beneath us, and have been tonked by the top lot.
Last year, we were frustratingly the worst of The Erratic, but you could argue we had a stronger defence and keeper. We beat Wolves and Sheffield Utd in one week when they were both top, but struggled against everyone but Brum away from home.
With Wells and Hemed, I think we should certainly be winning The Crap mini league. I’d like to see a settled 4231 shape (call it 4411 with two holding CMs if you like) with Eze at 10 and Pav on the right as a true winger for a while and see if we can break into The Erratic miki league with a few cracking results against teams in The Good mini league. If we can’t I think you can fairly argue McClaren has taken us backwards. If we do, you can argue we’ve moved forward a little.
I think McClaren was hired to take us from bottom of The Erratic league, where the idea was Holloway would never improve us from (quite possibly true), and take us to near top of The Erratic, which is broadly top 10, winning more than we’re losing. This would then set us up to try to progress into The Good mini league the following year.
Derby on Sat will be a good indicator.
"We're to of the crap We're top of the Cra--aa-aaap We're Queens Park Rangers - we're top of The Crap"
Robith's Relegation Index on 13:05 - Oct 3 by ngbqpr
"We're to of the crap We're top of the Cra--aa-aaap We're Queens Park Rangers - we're top of The Crap"
There could be 2 additional trophies awarded - we'd get a bronze turd on a wooden base with our name engraved on it. BFG 2 could parade it around the ground at the end of the season and fans could pay to have pictures taken with it.
"Thank you for supporting Queens Park Rangers Steep Staircase"... and I thought I'd signed up for a rollercoaster.
I'm attracted to this kind of approach, being the kind of fan who calculates points per game and so on............ but, isn't this survival index more or less just like looking at the league table?
If we know that between 1 and 1.1 points per game will likely get us relegated (and at any stage in the season show us down near the relegation zone), then if we're just above 1.1 and edging towards 1.2 points per game, we'll be.......... oh look, in 17th.........
‘morbid curiosity about where this is all going’
0
Robith's Relegation Index on 13:25 - Oct 3 with 12850 views
Robith's Relegation Index on 13:20 - Oct 3 by kropotkin41
I'm attracted to this kind of approach, being the kind of fan who calculates points per game and so on............ but, isn't this survival index more or less just like looking at the league table?
If we know that between 1 and 1.1 points per game will likely get us relegated (and at any stage in the season show us down near the relegation zone), then if we're just above 1.1 and edging towards 1.2 points per game, we'll be.......... oh look, in 17th.........
You mean top of the crap?
Did I ever mention that I was in Minder?
1
Robith's Relegation Index on 13:35 - Oct 3 with 12813 views
Robith's Relegation Index on 12:59 - Oct 3 by BrianMcCarthy
But what about when we're crap and erratic?
We can only be Erratic if we blow between Crap and Good. We have not been “Good” yet this season as we’ve only outplayed teams at the bottom. We were backs to the wall at home to Wigan in that win.
We’re Erratic if we can pitch up against some of the big teams and suddenly compete (Villa and Fulham away last year) but still struggle against The Crap.
If we’re only out playing The Crap. We’re just the best of that bunch.
C’mon, Bri. It’s easy!
P.s. to confirm I have no interest in nor previous involvement in the Nations Cup.
1
Robith's Relegation Index on 13:54 - Oct 3 with 12749 views
Robith's Relegation Index on 12:39 - Oct 3 by Hunterhoop
Rob,
I think there will emerge (by mid Nov) about 3 leagues within the Championship this year.
The Good
The Erratic
The Crap.
Broadly speaking, we’re top of The Crap, at present. We’ve really only outplayed those beneath us, and have been tonked by the top lot.
Last year, we were frustratingly the worst of The Erratic, but you could argue we had a stronger defence and keeper. We beat Wolves and Sheffield Utd in one week when they were both top, but struggled against everyone but Brum away from home.
With Wells and Hemed, I think we should certainly be winning The Crap mini league. I’d like to see a settled 4231 shape (call it 4411 with two holding CMs if you like) with Eze at 10 and Pav on the right as a true winger for a while and see if we can break into The Erratic miki league with a few cracking results against teams in The Good mini league. If we can’t I think you can fairly argue McClaren has taken us backwards. If we do, you can argue we’ve moved forward a little.
I think McClaren was hired to take us from bottom of The Erratic league, where the idea was Holloway would never improve us from (quite possibly true), and take us to near top of The Erratic, which is broadly top 10, winning more than we’re losing. This would then set us up to try to progress into The Good mini league the following year.
Derby on Sat will be a good indicator.
I don't think I'm quite on your level, but this is the way I will try to predict where we are prior to kick off. It's not particularly scientific - put simply, whichever couple finish in the most central position will indicate the final result. The brains over here can then put the graph together.
Did I ever mention that I was in Minder?
0
Robith's Relegation Index on 13:58 - Oct 3 with 12737 views
Robith's Relegation Index on 12:38 - Oct 3 by paesanu
That's good statting.
If you have more time on your hands, how about another stat perspective, where instead of the base being 50 points, base it on the current bottom 3's points!
[Post edited 3 Oct 2018 12:39]
That's a really good idea mate.
Added in a line for current bottom 3 average points, which our current points index at 216 which is suuuuuuuuper strong.
I'll add that to my metrics
0
Robith's Relegation Index on 14:01 - Oct 3 with 12728 views
Robith's Relegation Index on 13:20 - Oct 3 by kropotkin41
I'm attracted to this kind of approach, being the kind of fan who calculates points per game and so on............ but, isn't this survival index more or less just like looking at the league table?
If we know that between 1 and 1.1 points per game will likely get us relegated (and at any stage in the season show us down near the relegation zone), then if we're just above 1.1 and edging towards 1.2 points per game, we'll be.......... oh look, in 17th.........
Perhaps, I think if we streak towards safety then it becomes less relevant agreed. In that scenario I will be attempting to pull apart the league based on Hunter's segmentation
0
Robith's Relegation Index on 14:37 - Oct 3 with 12636 views
Robith's Relegation Index on 13:45 - Oct 3 by Hunterhoop
We can only be Erratic if we blow between Crap and Good. We have not been “Good” yet this season as we’ve only outplayed teams at the bottom. We were backs to the wall at home to Wigan in that win.
We’re Erratic if we can pitch up against some of the big teams and suddenly compete (Villa and Fulham away last year) but still struggle against The Crap.
If we’re only out playing The Crap. We’re just the best of that bunch.
C’mon, Bri. It’s easy!
P.s. to confirm I have no interest in nor previous involvement in the Nations Cup.
I got it now. We're craperratic!
"Gonna be a classic, Now we're craperratic…"
"The opposite of love, after all, is not hate, but indifference."
Robith's Relegation Index on 10:34 - Oct 3 by Mytch_QPR
Thanks, Robith.
It did occur to me last night when driving home that we're suddenly a quarter of the way through the season. It's been a blast.
My method was more rudimentary: quarter games played = 13 points, end of season = 52 - except, of course, it never works like that.
As with last season, beating the teams around us in the bottom half (plus the odd unexpected wins against some of the better teams) will keep us up - that's why last night's result may be very important come May.
I'm staying tuned for your relegation roulette - agree 50 should see us safe.
End of season doesn't quite work like that. 11/46 is less than a quarter. Therefore 44 games would yield 52 points. A little over 1 point per game, so either ad d 2 or 3 to the total giving 54/55. V comfortably staying up. But as the 11 played so far includes 4 of the 7 teams below us then the points calculation may be skewed (i.e. biased towards better results). Conclusion - we might be OK, it could get squeaky, we're completely f***ed. 2 out of 3 ain't bad.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky
0
Robith's Relegation Index on 09:14 - Oct 8 with 12215 views
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