| Corona Virus 22:39 - Mar 7 with 501628 views | SgorioFruit |
Sorry for new thread,
But how bad do you lot reckon it’s going to get here in the UK?
I just been watching the news. Looking nasty in Italy. |  |
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| Corona Virus on 15:06 - Mar 14 with 1565 views | ladyjack |
| Corona Virus on 15:00 - Mar 14 by londonlisa2001 |
You started today by saying you hadn’t followed the story until yesterday.
You’re now disputing the statements of the Chief Medical Officer.
An astonishing learning curve. |
What statements has the Chief Medical Officer made that you are referring to ? |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:07 - Mar 14 with 1561 views | Kilkennyjack |
| Corona Virus on 15:01 - Mar 14 by Professor |
Both Lady Jack and Lisa have raised fair points. The Ian Donald
Thread on Twitter is interesting and sets out fairly how the strategy could work. I personally think it’s too risky as I am fair from convinced we will get sufficient herd immunity.
I worry the expertise is of the radical Dominic Cummings school
Which could result in disaster with millions of deaths. The failure to show how they have come to the decision is worrying. There are plenty of opposing expert views notably from immunologists
Who like me are sceptical about protection levels. Mathematical models (which
I am guessing this is) over simplify to susceptible or resistant populations. But we are not binary but polymorphic in our immunity. This could be the flaw.
But, in the absence of a vaccine there is no right answer.
If we are lucky we will get tens of thousands of deaths. Unlucky millions.
As someone with respiratory disease i am facing up to my own mortality [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 15:03]
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Exactly ðŸ‘ðŸ‘👠|  |
| Beware of the Risen People
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| Corona Virus on 15:07 - Mar 14 with 1560 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 14:53 - Mar 14 by ladyjack |
I don't troll people, you directed people to this expert guy and his analysis of the situation reads like a Nazi playbook but I read the situation the same, the death tolls, decisions about who lives and dies, using people as guinea pigs for the perceived greater good under this plan, allowing people to be infected to build up immunity, closing and opening schools, stopping and allowing events all used as a tool depending on hospital capacity etc etc.
People have the right to know but there again some might think it's not in their interest to know.
I started today off by giving arguments for and against the UKs strategy, if it's frightening so be it, it's not trolling, it what experts are saying and sometimes the realities are unpalatable and that's it. |
Yes where have we heard that the ends justify the means I wonder? |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:07 - Mar 14 with 1556 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 15:04 - Mar 14 by hobo |
That's very wishful thinking |
Do you think everyone who had the virus in China were accounted for ? | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:07 - Mar 14 with 1556 views | Professor |
Just to add. PHE are recruiting volunteers from research to massively increase diagnostic capacity.
Some funders such as Wellcome trust are actively supporting funded scientists to release staff time for this. This is an excellent move. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:08 - Mar 14 with 1553 views | ladyjack |
| Corona Virus on 15:01 - Mar 14 by Professor |
Both Lady Jack and Lisa have raised fair points. The Ian Donald
Thread on Twitter is interesting and sets out fairly how the strategy could work. I personally think it’s too risky as I am fair from convinced we will get sufficient herd immunity.
I worry the expertise is of the radical Dominic Cummings school
Which could result in disaster with millions of deaths. The failure to show how they have come to the decision is worrying. There are plenty of opposing expert views notably from immunologists
Who like me are sceptical about protection levels. Mathematical models (which
I am guessing this is) over simplify to susceptible or resistant populations. But we are not binary but polymorphic in our immunity. This could be the flaw.
But, in the absence of a vaccine there is no right answer.
If we are lucky we will get tens of thousands of deaths. Unlucky millions.
As someone with respiratory disease i am facing up to my own mortality [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 15:03]
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I think the same Prof. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:11 - Mar 14 with 1542 views | ladyjack |
| Corona Virus on 15:05 - Mar 14 by A_Fans_Dad |
Typical, attack the person and not the contents of their comments, which are the percieved wisdom of the experts around the rest of the world. |
Unfortunately she attacks the man and not the ball all the time. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:13 - Mar 14 with 1534 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 15:05 - Mar 14 by A_Fans_Dad |
Typical, attack the person and not the contents of their comments, which are the percieved wisdom of the experts around the rest of the world. |
Trampie is a troll.
Not a real poster sharing real views.
But if you want to think he’s adding to a discussion, go ahead. | | | |
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| Corona Virus on 15:14 - Mar 14 with 1533 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 15:01 - Mar 14 by Professor |
Both Lady Jack and Lisa have raised fair points. The Ian Donald
Thread on Twitter is interesting and sets out fairly how the strategy could work. I personally think it’s too risky as I am fair from convinced we will get sufficient herd immunity.
I worry the expertise is of the radical Dominic Cummings school
Which could result in disaster with millions of deaths. The failure to show how they have come to the decision is worrying. There are plenty of opposing expert views notably from immunologists
Who like me are sceptical about protection levels. Mathematical models (which
I am guessing this is) over simplify to susceptible or resistant populations. But we are not binary but polymorphic in our immunity. This could be the flaw.
But, in the absence of a vaccine there is no right answer.
If we are lucky we will get tens of thousands of deaths. Unlucky millions.
As someone with respiratory disease i am facing up to my own mortality [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 15:03]
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We are just collateral damage to them.
I much prefer emperical data to models any day of the week.
China, Italy & Spain gave us emperical data. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:16 - Mar 14 with 1528 views | hobo |
|  | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:17 - Mar 14 with 1521 views | Wingstandwood |
| Corona Virus on 15:01 - Mar 14 by Professor |
Both Lady Jack and Lisa have raised fair points. The Ian Donald
Thread on Twitter is interesting and sets out fairly how the strategy could work. I personally think it’s too risky as I am fair from convinced we will get sufficient herd immunity.
I worry the expertise is of the radical Dominic Cummings school
Which could result in disaster with millions of deaths. The failure to show how they have come to the decision is worrying. There are plenty of opposing expert views notably from immunologists
Who like me are sceptical about protection levels. Mathematical models (which
I am guessing this is) over simplify to susceptible or resistant populations. But we are not binary but polymorphic in our immunity. This could be the flaw.
But, in the absence of a vaccine there is no right answer.
If we are lucky we will get tens of thousands of deaths. Unlucky millions.
As someone with respiratory disease i am facing up to my own mortality [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 15:03]
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I find your stuff and the stuff that legoman is passing on to be very interesting.
Here is another question? Whether this is known, because this particular strain of virus is relatively new? And too early for virologist/epidemiologist community to get a full and exact picture?
Does everyone whom has had virus contact whereupon the virus has entered the body? In that instance?... Does every person with that circumstance become infected? Are some immune anyhow and neither become infected or become carriers presenting no symptoms? |  |
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| Corona Virus on 15:18 - Mar 14 with 1517 views | legoman |
| Corona Virus on 14:58 - Mar 14 by Kilkennyjack |
Ask your son why the UK is taking different actions to the rest of the world ?
Maybe everyone else has got it wrong ? |
I would ask him but he's probably 3 sheets to the wind at a wedding in Dublin.
But I think its pretty clear why the UK is doing what its doing - and that doesn't mean I think its correct. The lockdown approach only buys time and you simply can't keep millions of people corralled for weeks on end.
Our strategy is to allow a managed spread of the disease to build up SOME LEVEL of immunity across the population and try to protect the vulnerable.
No-one knows if its right but what is the alternative? Once you relax lockdown you release loads of unprotected people into the welcoming arms of the virus which can't wait to get into you!
I believe we have limited alternatives. |  |
| "M'sieur, you said your dog did not bite!"
"That's not my dog" |
| |
| Corona Virus on 15:18 - Mar 14 with 1517 views | Polskijack |
This is the situation here. I'm glad I live in a small village with no other houses that near. We have battened down the hatches and are going to ride it out. As schools are closed I can't work anyway 😃
13/03/2020 State of emergency in Poland nodue to corona virus epidemic:
- we have a ban on foreigners non residents, entering Poland, it will come into force on the night from this Saturday to Sunday.
- foreigners working or living in Poland will be able to come to Poland, but will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine.
- Polish citizens will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine after arriving in the country.
- car traffic for Poles returning to the country will be maintained, but strict checking procedures will be introduced.
- restrictions at the borders are to apply from the night of Saturday /Sunday for 10 days, with the possibility of extending this time, local traffic movement will continue unchanged.
- shopping malls opening times, will be limited. Only grocery stores, drugstores, laundries and pharmacies will be open inside them.
- from Sunday international air and rail connections will be suspended. Freight traffic will not be suspended.
- international air charter connections will be allowed (there are people coming back from vacations abroad).
- gatherings of over 50 people are prohibited.
- assembly restrictions apply to all types of celebrations, private, public, religious, local, administrative.
- all bars, restaurants, pubs, casinos and other similar places of entertainment are closed. Restaurants can, however, sell food for delivery.
- restrictions on gatherings and entertainment venues will apply for 14 days with the possibility of extension
Please stay inside, do not organise meetings or gatherings. Best to avoid house to house calls and socialising in general. |  | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:20 - Mar 14 with 1508 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 15:14 - Mar 14 by A_Fans_Dad |
We are just collateral damage to them.
I much prefer emperical data to models any day of the week.
China, Italy & Spain gave us emperical data. |
No they don’t.
At most they give data about the first reaction and its effects. That’s the problem.
Didn’t the second wave of the Spanish flu actually cause far more damage than the first? [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 15:20]
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| Corona Virus on 15:23 - Mar 14 with 1486 views | legoman |
| Corona Virus on 15:18 - Mar 14 by Polskijack |
This is the situation here. I'm glad I live in a small village with no other houses that near. We have battened down the hatches and are going to ride it out. As schools are closed I can't work anyway 😃
13/03/2020 State of emergency in Poland nodue to corona virus epidemic:
- we have a ban on foreigners non residents, entering Poland, it will come into force on the night from this Saturday to Sunday.
- foreigners working or living in Poland will be able to come to Poland, but will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine.
- Polish citizens will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine after arriving in the country.
- car traffic for Poles returning to the country will be maintained, but strict checking procedures will be introduced.
- restrictions at the borders are to apply from the night of Saturday /Sunday for 10 days, with the possibility of extending this time, local traffic movement will continue unchanged.
- shopping malls opening times, will be limited. Only grocery stores, drugstores, laundries and pharmacies will be open inside them.
- from Sunday international air and rail connections will be suspended. Freight traffic will not be suspended.
- international air charter connections will be allowed (there are people coming back from vacations abroad).
- gatherings of over 50 people are prohibited.
- assembly restrictions apply to all types of celebrations, private, public, religious, local, administrative.
- all bars, restaurants, pubs, casinos and other similar places of entertainment are closed. Restaurants can, however, sell food for delivery.
- restrictions on gatherings and entertainment venues will apply for 14 days with the possibility of extension
Please stay inside, do not organise meetings or gatherings. Best to avoid house to house calls and socialising in general. |
But what will happen on Day 15 Polski? The virus will be right there waiting for you (with apologies to Richard Marx) and you won't have any immunity. | |
| "M'sieur, you said your dog did not bite!"
"That's not my dog" |
| |
| Corona Virus on 15:24 - Mar 14 with 1482 views | londonlisa2001 |
| Corona Virus on 15:18 - Mar 14 by Polskijack |
This is the situation here. I'm glad I live in a small village with no other houses that near. We have battened down the hatches and are going to ride it out. As schools are closed I can't work anyway 😃
13/03/2020 State of emergency in Poland nodue to corona virus epidemic:
- we have a ban on foreigners non residents, entering Poland, it will come into force on the night from this Saturday to Sunday.
- foreigners working or living in Poland will be able to come to Poland, but will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine.
- Polish citizens will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine after arriving in the country.
- car traffic for Poles returning to the country will be maintained, but strict checking procedures will be introduced.
- restrictions at the borders are to apply from the night of Saturday /Sunday for 10 days, with the possibility of extending this time, local traffic movement will continue unchanged.
- shopping malls opening times, will be limited. Only grocery stores, drugstores, laundries and pharmacies will be open inside them.
- from Sunday international air and rail connections will be suspended. Freight traffic will not be suspended.
- international air charter connections will be allowed (there are people coming back from vacations abroad).
- gatherings of over 50 people are prohibited.
- assembly restrictions apply to all types of celebrations, private, public, religious, local, administrative.
- all bars, restaurants, pubs, casinos and other similar places of entertainment are closed. Restaurants can, however, sell food for delivery.
- restrictions on gatherings and entertainment venues will apply for 14 days with the possibility of extension
Please stay inside, do not organise meetings or gatherings. Best to avoid house to house calls and socialising in general. |
How long are you going to do all that?
12 months until a vaccine is available?
Because the steps Poland is taking seem really sensible to me. Apart from the how long question.
At which point it becomes more difficult to know.
Again, I have no idea which is right and wrong. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:25 - Mar 14 with 1472 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 15:20 - Mar 14 by londonlisa2001 |
No they don’t.
At most they give data about the first reaction and its effects. That’s the problem.
Didn’t the second wave of the Spanish flu actually cause far more damage than the first? [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 15:20]
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They gave us data, models do not provide data, they provide whatever they are programmed to provide and it is not data.
The second wave of the Spanish Flu has nothing to with now, we have only just started the first wave of this virus, which is going to be quite bad enough. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:28 - Mar 14 with 1462 views | legoman |
| Corona Virus on 15:24 - Mar 14 by londonlisa2001 |
How long are you going to do all that?
12 months until a vaccine is available?
Because the steps Poland is taking seem really sensible to me. Apart from the how long question.
At which point it becomes more difficult to know.
Again, I have no idea which is right and wrong. |
I think that until we have either a vaccine or widespread immunity through exposure there are few options.
I just don't see how a lockdown will work after a couple of weeks - society will crumble and I just don't see that happening. | |
| "M'sieur, you said your dog did not bite!"
"That's not my dog" |
| |
| Corona Virus on 15:29 - Mar 14 with 1460 views | exiledclaseboy |
| Corona Virus on 15:18 - Mar 14 by Polskijack |
This is the situation here. I'm glad I live in a small village with no other houses that near. We have battened down the hatches and are going to ride it out. As schools are closed I can't work anyway 😃
13/03/2020 State of emergency in Poland nodue to corona virus epidemic:
- we have a ban on foreigners non residents, entering Poland, it will come into force on the night from this Saturday to Sunday.
- foreigners working or living in Poland will be able to come to Poland, but will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine.
- Polish citizens will have to undergo a 14-day quarantine after arriving in the country.
- car traffic for Poles returning to the country will be maintained, but strict checking procedures will be introduced.
- restrictions at the borders are to apply from the night of Saturday /Sunday for 10 days, with the possibility of extending this time, local traffic movement will continue unchanged.
- shopping malls opening times, will be limited. Only grocery stores, drugstores, laundries and pharmacies will be open inside them.
- from Sunday international air and rail connections will be suspended. Freight traffic will not be suspended.
- international air charter connections will be allowed (there are people coming back from vacations abroad).
- gatherings of over 50 people are prohibited.
- assembly restrictions apply to all types of celebrations, private, public, religious, local, administrative.
- all bars, restaurants, pubs, casinos and other similar places of entertainment are closed. Restaurants can, however, sell food for delivery.
- restrictions on gatherings and entertainment venues will apply for 14 days with the possibility of extension
Please stay inside, do not organise meetings or gatherings. Best to avoid house to house calls and socialising in general. |
Standard procedure in Blaen y Maes is that. |  |
| |
| Corona Virus on 15:30 - Mar 14 with 1459 views | A_Fans_Dad |
| Corona Virus on 11:47 - Mar 14 by monmouth |
Yes, infections will become exponential if the pandemic projections are anywhere near right. |
The UK infection rate has already gone above an exponential rate.
Based on the early data an exponential curve says we should be at about 225/day and we are at 320, nearly a 1/3rd higher.
ps Sorry, it is even worse than I thought, according to worldometer it is not 320 today it is 342. [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 16:09]
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| Corona Virus on 15:31 - Mar 14 with 1450 views | ladyjack |
| Corona Virus on 15:13 - Mar 14 by londonlisa2001 |
Trampie is a troll.
Not a real poster sharing real views.
But if you want to think he’s adding to a discussion, go ahead. |
Of course I'm a real poster sharing real views just diametrically opposed to your views. [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 15:37]
| | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:31 - Mar 14 with 1450 views | longlostjack |
| Corona Virus on 15:24 - Mar 14 by londonlisa2001 |
How long are you going to do all that?
12 months until a vaccine is available?
Because the steps Poland is taking seem really sensible to me. Apart from the how long question.
At which point it becomes more difficult to know.
Again, I have no idea which is right and wrong. |
There are probably a large number of people who have been infected already. It seems sensible to me to try to reduce the peak or flatten the curve so that the health services are better able to cope. |  |
| |
| Corona Virus on 15:32 - Mar 14 with 1445 views | Thebus |
| Corona Virus on 15:01 - Mar 14 by Professor |
Both Lady Jack and Lisa have raised fair points. The Ian Donald
Thread on Twitter is interesting and sets out fairly how the strategy could work. I personally think it’s too risky as I am fair from convinced we will get sufficient herd immunity.
I worry the expertise is of the radical Dominic Cummings school
Which could result in disaster with millions of deaths. The failure to show how they have come to the decision is worrying. There are plenty of opposing expert views notably from immunologists
Who like me are sceptical about protection levels. Mathematical models (which
I am guessing this is) over simplify to susceptible or resistant populations. But we are not binary but polymorphic in our immunity. This could be the flaw.
But, in the absence of a vaccine there is no right answer.
If we are lucky we will get tens of thousands of deaths. Unlucky millions.
As someone with respiratory disease i am facing up to my own mortality [Post edited 14 Mar 2020 15:03]
|
I think you are letting your own fears cloud your judgement. | | | |
| Corona Virus on 15:33 - Mar 14 with 1440 views | Polskijack |
| Corona Virus on 15:23 - Mar 14 by legoman |
But what will happen on Day 15 Polski? The virus will be right there waiting for you (with apologies to Richard Marx) and you won't have any immunity. |
This won't be for 15 days. It's political. This will continue for much longer but to state this now would cause even more panic. An example is the schools closing for 2 weeks but I doubt I will be back until after the Summer holidays. My wife is asthmatic and Diabetic so I have made the decision to not go back until the crises has lessened. At least if we then get it then there might be some respirators etc available! | | | |
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