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Why Four Point Deduction Should Not Mean Promotion Failure For Southampton
Friday, 14th Aug 2026 09:45

Whatever happens on the this opening weekend of Championship fixtures, after the 4 point deduction it will be Saints at the bottom of the table come the final fixture on Monday evening, But this should not mean that Southampton will not be promoted come the end of the season.

Of course starting with with minus 4 points is a hurdle to overcome before we can even get started on achieving our ultimate aim of achieving promotion come May 2027.

It will make it that little bit harder given that we are up against a big hitter like West Ham United, an experienced yo yo club such as Burnley and of course Wolverhampton Wanderers who will too fancy their chances of getting back to the top flight.

Add to that the likes of Middlesbrough, Millwall & even Wrexham and it looks like being one of the toughest promotion battles of recent years.

But the 4 point deficit should not be terminal, it will be very difficult to achieve automatic promotion, but if we take a look back at least season and the campaign of 2023/24, if we had started 4 points down then, it would not have changed much in the League table.

Last term we ended the season in 4th place with 80 points, level with Middlesbrough but ahead on goal difference, if we deduct 4 points from that total, then we would have simple swapped places with Boro in the table, we would have finished 5th on 76 points.

We would have still been well clear of Hull in the last promotion spot on 73 points and indeed Wrexham who were 7th on 71.

Back to 2023/24 and a 4 point deduction would have changed absolutely nothing, we finished 4th back then on 87 points , which would ironically have been enough to see up go up automatically last season.

West Bromwich Albion in 5th were 12 points behind us and Norwich in 6th a whopping 14 points adrift, this years club promoted in the play offs Hull City were 7th and 17 points behind.

So this 4 point penalty does not mean that we have zero chance of promotion, in reality it makes it hard to get into the top two, especially given the quality of other potential contenders, but we should make the play offs.

To give us a bit of a safety net, the revamp of the promotion spots to make it 6 teams who will be in the post season play off fixtures, just gives us a bit more leeway.

But you would hope that we would be in the top 4 and in there in spite of that deduction, in the final 5 months of the season we were the best team in the Championship bar none, unbeaten in the League since January 17th and indeed our only defeat in that period came at Wembley against the Mighty Manchester City who just scraped home in the FA Cup semi final.

If Tonda Eckert can keep doing that voodoo that he do so well, then we can get off to a good start and quickly move up the table.

This summer has been one of doom after Spygate, being thrown out of the play offs, a four point deduction and this threat from the FA still hanging over our heads, something that is morally wrong and symptomatic of the controversies that hang over footballs governing bodies at the moment.

It seems that the whole World is against us, a day doesn't seem to go by without some long forgotten ex player of manager being dragged out to earn a couple of hundred quid and tell anyone who will listen what an evil club we are are and the draconian punishments that we should receive and deserve.

But now we once again have the chance to do our talking were it counts and that is on the pitch, we earned our 4th place position and deserved our win over Middlesbrough in the play off semi final.

The punishment did not fit the crime, but we held up our hands and took it on the chin with dignity, unlike Middlesbrough who have still not stopped griping about it.

They had their chance to show they were worthy of promotion on the pitch, they didn't take it and that is their fault not ours.

This could be a great season, made even more satisfying because of the 4 points deduction, we have the team to do that.

What we needs is everyone now to get behind the club and create that siege mentality needed to see us through.

I'm looking forward to this season, every player who pulls on a Southampton shirt needs to be supported as does the manager and the club itself, lets make this a season to remember, both on and off the pitch.


All Photos Via Reuters



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Jesus_02 added 11:14 - Aug 14
If we miss automatic by points or less the magnitude of the punishment will be fully realised. Add to that the public execution of Tonda and maybe we will be able to move on.

I have no malace for Boro suporters. They have obviously been lead by the nose by the media like most people seem to be these days. That said wouldnt it be delicious to beat them in the play-off final.
2

StAnt added 11:49 - Aug 14
There is a scenario where, after two games, we could be just 2 points behind the leaders. It's very unlikely but, if we win our first two matches and nobody else does we will indeed be only 2 points adrift of the leaders :-)
Not likely to happen of course.
1

SaintPaulVW added 14:00 - Aug 14
If ever there was a season where we need that elusive fast start...
0

Bowlercow added 17:21 - Aug 14
When Tonda was appointed in November we were 9 points behind a play off place with 33 games left
Four points behind with 46 games to go shouldn't be insurmountable.
Ninet points (94 for us) will probably be enough for an auto spot ie 2.04 per game
We can do that
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