Having spurned the opportunity to cement a top-six place during a run of kind fixtures, QPR must now play chaser during a daunting run on the road which begins on Sunday morning in Luton.

Luton (16-9-10 WWWLLW 6th) v QPR (16-8-11 LLDWLL 7th)

Mercantile Credit Trophy >>> Sunday March 13, 2022 >>> Kick Off 12.00 >>> Weather — Wet, windy >>> Kenilworth Road, Luton

Well, Sky certainly picked their moment. I suspect the police probably had plenty to do with the shifting of this weekend’s trip to Luton (they’d have kicked it off at 6am if they could I reckon), but still Sunday breakfast time at Kenilworth Road appeals as much as the 'Good News — You’re Being Audited' letter from HMRC and is the fifteenth QPR match this season where the date and/or kick off time has been changed. Quite the time for this to turn up in the postbag…

Hi there,

Could you please let me know if there are any fans who would be interested in taking part in this?

You can already see and hear what that promotional video is going to look like. Sweeping shots of fans in colours sitting in the pub, or the breakfast café, or the barbers, or the queue for the checkout, bantering furiously about who will finally be declared the ultimate conqueror of the centuries-old struggle between Huddersfield and Blackburn, all set to some hideous fucking crime-against-music some junior Sky producer heard in their spin class. Because of course what we all do with our lives, what we like better than anything else, is heading out into the world in a QPR replica shirt, a QPR scarf and a QPR hat to engage in mega-bantz with every landlord, waitress, hairdresser, or sad old cunt on the Sainsbury’s checkout about whether Warbs Warburton might relent and switch to a back four after the recent poor run of form. A taxi. That’s what it would have been. London club = black taxi. Four of us in the back, QPR shirts, QPR hats, QPR scarfs, having a big exaggerated debate with the actor playing the driver, who’s set aside his concerns about the spiralling cost of fuel crushing his livelihood and defaulting his mortgage to get into the nitty gritty with us about why Rob Dickie’s form has tailed off so alarmingly. All so Sky can make out like they’re some sort of friend of the match-going football fan, when what the actual bloody match-going football fans would really like to know is whether our long distance away games three fucking weeks from now are going to be shifted into the middle of the night on a Thursday or not, so we can get on with the important business of forking another three figures over into the bank account of Avanti West Coast to sit on a train that stinks of shit during a cost of living crisis.

To be fair, along with the long overdue exposure of the swamp down the road as nothing more than a money laundry to assist Russia in the bombing of Ukrainian maternity hospitals, the opportunity to write the reply explaining exactly where they could file that request (and why) did lift the mood rather following last week’s demoralising defeat against Cardiff. Sadly, it was only later on the way home that I realised what I actually should have done is agreed to the proposal at 15.00 on Tuesday March 22, and then a few days prior shifted it to 12.30, before moving it to 20.00 with a couple of days notice, and then back to 15.00 on the day of the meet. Curse my sluggish, alcohol-riddled mind. I was too polite as well really, accepting fully that it’s not the poor PR girl’s fault that her company piss us about so much is it? Angry 24-year-old Clive would have shit in an envelope and posted it to them, or something. I’m not sure whether I miss that guy or not.

The underlying annoyance in this, of course, is it’s probably going to be their promotional reel for the Championship play-offs which, for the first time really since this point last year, I now don’t expect us to be in. The team has looked tired and leggy, and results have been on the slide, for a few weeks now. This has lead to the predictable social media meltdown, and message board debate about team selections, formations, conspiracy theories about where injured players might really be and why certain players can’t get gametime regardless. There was something about the fold from a winning position against Cardiff last week that really seems to have sucked the life and belief out of the place, and to hear Warbs depart from his usual soundbites and calmness and express his fury with the second half performance really underlined that. I actually thought Rangers played far worse, and deserved much more of a bollocking, at Barnsley and Blackburn when he protected them. There was none of that last week, and it kind of added to the feeling that ‘we’ve gone’ — along with dropping out of the play-off places for the first time this calendar year.

Having been fourth, touching-distance of second, with games in hand, and a run of fixtures against Barnsley, Millwall, Hull, Blackpool, Blackburn and Cardiff it looked like Rangers - flying out of January unbeaten in seven with five wins - were going to dip their bread. Now it feels like that lovely afternoon against Reading will prove to be the highpoint of a season that ends in disappointment. Partly that’s because we have let expectations of a team that is trying to compete on a smaller budget than many rivals (though not Luton, who are now above us) and is in a period of building that has seen them progress year-on-year under this manager, run away slightly. It’s gone from hoping/thinking we might be capable of pushing the play-offs, to thinking failure to reach them would be a disaster. But also it’s because we’ve shown we were good enough, we’ve been up there all season, and we’ve choked rather over a period of really winnable games just at a time when all our rivals were playing each other. It feels like an opportunity missed.

It hasn’t been missed yet though. The fixture list doesn’t help — the run in is exactly the opposite of what we’ve just had. We’re away at Luton and Forest this week, and then we come back from the international break with Fulham at home and three consecutive away games at Sheff Utd, Preston and Huddersfield. Fairly monstrous for a team playing as we are now, with four away defeats to nil in a row just gone. But, it does mean it’s still in our hands. Win a few of these games and we’ll go back above these teams in the table.

I remember in the 2011/12 Premier League season writing repeatedly in these previews that our safety or otherwise would depend entirely on what we did through January and February when we played Norwich, Wigan, Wolves, Fulham and Everton at home and fellow strugglers Blackburn, Bolton and Villa away. When we won just one of them, and were conned out of victory by a scandalous afternoon of refereeing at Bolton, I declared us as good as down because our last ten games included Man City, Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal, Spurs and so on. As we now know, having bollocksed up the supposedly winnable games we went on a remarkable run where Liverpool (having been 2-0 down), Arsenal, Spurs, Swansea and Stoke (with the last kick) were all beaten in W12, and we survived on the final day thanks to other results despite losing our last seven away matches.

We talk a lot about something being “very QPR” and it’s usually a negative — very QPR to lose at Barnsley the way we did, for instance. But it would, likewise, be "very-QPR" to come roaring back from failing in a load of games we should have won by winning a load that we shouldn’t. Perhaps the pressure of holding onto the play-off spot being lifted, and the different dynamic of becoming the chaser, might enthuse and inspire what has looked a fairly listless team in recent weeks. It’s the Championship at the end of the day, not Serie A circa 1994, none of these teams are unbeatable globetrotters. That’s what I’m telling myself anyway, otherwise I’m not sure I’d get out of bed on Sunday morning for this, one of the least appetising trips on the calendar even in the best of times.

How much I believe it myself though… well, you can probably guess. We travel in hope.

Links >>> Hatters on verge of the big time — Interview >>> Gerry’s first win — History >>> Josh Smith in charge — Referee >>> Don’t throw the towel in — Podcast >>> Luton Town official website >>> Hatters News — Blog >>> Luton Outlaws — Message Board >>> Supporters Trust >>> Oak Road Hatter — Contributor’s Blog

Below the fold

Team News: The injury Seny Dieng collected off Sam Gallagher’s challenge at Blackburn will keep him out for a significant period of time. The medical team said this week it will be at least four weeks, at which point there will be a reassessment which, even allowing for the forthcoming international break, sounds like he’s going to miss most of the rest of the campaign. David Marshall’s poor errors for goals against Rovers and Cardiff couldn’t really have been timed any worse. The mythical figure of Dillon Barnes has returned from a loan spell at Aldershot so, with Joe Walsh also out and the inexperienced Murphy Mahoney on the bench recently, we might actually get to see him in the flesh on Sunday as the back-up sub. Lyndon Dykes’ “knock” has now kept him out for a month and four matches, and there’s been no indication as to his availability this weekend although give he was “back out on the grass” ahead of the Cardiff game you’d think he might be involved. Stefan Johansen missed out last week but is back this. Charlie Austin, another sidelined by a non-descript injury, did light training on Thursday and was then back with the full group on Friday so may have some involvement against a team he has scored against in each of his last three appearances. Dion Sanderson serves game three of three of his ban for the violent conduct red card he picked up against Blackpool.

Captain Sonny Bradley has missed the last dozen games for Luton after a groin operation and although he was out on the pitch in the warm up and warm down for the midweek win at Coventry, this game has come too soon for him. Gabe Osho was injured by Matt Crooks falling on him in the recent defeat at Boro — and, to be fair to the lad, if you were to pick a Championship player to fall on you it wouldn’t be Matt Crooks — and he’s still out this weekend as well. Simon Sluga, always good for an error in our favour, left the club in January leaving Villa loanee Jed Steer between the sticks but with him now injured Alex Palmer is an emergency loan from West Brom. Robert Snodgrass was picked up as a free agent recently and has made on appearance off the bench, against the warmongers in the FA Cup.

Elsewhere: Friday night in the Mercantile Credit Trophy means another Sky appearance by West Brom, which didn’t make a lot of sense when they were winning but boring in the first half of the season and certainly doesn’t now they’re losing and boring in the second half. Last week’s 2-0 win at Hull just their second victory in 13 games, and they’ve failed to score in seven of their last ten. Having dropped into the bottom half of the table, tonight they host one of the teams that has replaced them in the top six — surprise package Sporting Huddersfield can be had as long as 7/2 to win tonight despite an unbeaten league run of 16 games and four Championship victories in a row coming into this one. They go second with a win.

That’s because Bournemouth don’t play until tomorrow when Wayne Rooney’s Derby County are on the south coast. An expensive January trolley dash did look to have done the trick when they beate Stoke, Birmingham and Blackpool in February but they’ve now lost at Preston Knob End and drawn at home to basement dwellers Peterborough this week to set their fans back on edge. They’ve played three fewer games than Huddersfield, though that does leave them facing 13 fixtures between now and May 7 with Blackburn, Coventry, Sheff Utd, West Brom and Huddersfield all to come away and Boro, Fulham, Forest and Millwall all still to go to Dean Court.

Despite Wawll registering zero shots on or off target at Ewood Park in the week, Blackburn could only wrestle a 0-0 draw from that game in hand. The recent 1-0 win against QPR in Lancashire is the only goal Rovers have scored in eight matches. Third on New Year’s Day they have scored just three goals since then and yet dropped only one place to fourth ahead of this weekend’s home gimme against Bristol City. Any slip there will surely let in Sheffield Red Strip who are a point back in fifth after a midweek demolition job on much-fancied Middlesbrough. Along with Luton, Paul Heckingbottom’s team really are the form side of the chasers and will fancy their chances at Coventry this week who lost against the Hatters at home during the week.

There’s been a slight stalling of the Chris Wilder momentum in the North east of late, amidst a hectic calendar created by their cup campaign. Three defeats in a row on the road at Bristol City, Barnsley and Bramall Lane have rubbed a little of the lustre off his initial impact and their next three league games are all away, starting at Millwall tomorrow, either side of a cup tie with Vladimir Putin’s favourites. Media darlings Forest have also been stalling in the league amidst cup commitments, but having moved into a first quarter-final of any sort since 1996 (it was Bayern Munich back then which gives you a clue as to the length of time) with a midweek victory over Huddersfield they’ll surely be able to knock off hapless Reading fairly comprehensively this weekend.

Barnsley’s mini-revival took a harsh blow when Stoke equalised in injury time at Oakwell midweek, and you wouldn’t necessarily fancy them for much from the lunchtime fixture with Tarquin and Rupert. Stoke take their homewrecker to Peterborough this weekend. From the Mykonos departure lounge — Blackpool v Swanselona, Cardiff v Preston Knob End.

Referee: Up and coming young referee Josh Smith gets this game, having earlier this season refereed QPR’s controversial 1-1 draw at Blackpool. Details.

Form

Luton: Town’s recent 2-1 loss at fellow play-off hopefuls Middlesbrough was only their third in the league since November 27, a sequence of 16 games. The others were at Sheff Utd, one of the other form teams in the league, and Birmingham, who have had a weird hex on them this season and won by an aggregate score of 8-0 across the two matches. In this league only Fulham (31 from 12 games) have taken more points than the Hatters (28 from 13 games) in 2022 so far. They have won ten of their last 15 matches in the league. Their recent 3-2 cup defeat to the Russian war sympathisers was their first loss at Kenilworth Road in nine games — a run that includes a draw here with league leaders Fulham and wins against Bournemouth and West Brom. They have only conceded one goal at Kenilworth Road in their last four Championship games here. Overall Nathan Jones’ men have a home record of 9-5-3 with Stoke, Cardiff and Birmingham the three sides victorious here. Elijah Adebayo is top scorer with 14 followed by Harry Cornick with ten.

QPR: Rangers’ last gasp victory against Blackpool at Loftus Road is their only win in eight games. They have gone from an unbeaten January of five wins and two draws to a dire February and now March of one win and five defeats from eight games. They have gone from fourth with games in hand, to seventh and potentially eighth by the time this match kicks off — the first time they’ve been out of the top six since round 23 in early December. The eight-game sequence has come while playing the teams currently 24th, 23rd, 20th, 17th, 14th, 9th, 8th and 4th in the table. They now face a daunting run in which five of the next seven games are away from home against the teams currently 1st, 3rd, 5th, 6th, 10th, 12th and 24th (bottom placed Peterborough having already beaten the R’s in league and cup this season). Rangers have gone from an unbeaten run of six on the road, of which five were victories, to four straight defeats without scoring a goal. They remain the third top scorers in the league, with 50, but they have failed to score in five of their last ten. Andre Gray’s goal against Cardiff last week was the first from a striker since Lyndon Dykes bagged against Reading nine games ago. That win against the Royals was also the team’s last clean sheet. Rangers do, however, have an excellent recent record against Luton, who they beat 2-0 in the first meeting this season back in November. Rangers have lost only two of 25 league and cup meetings going back to 1988/89 with 13 wins and ten draws. Since Town returned to the Championship for the 2019/20 season Mark Warburton’s side have won four and drawn one of five meetings. Charlie Austin has scored in each of the last three (all victories).

Prediction: We’re indebted to The Art of Football for once again agreeing to sponsor our Prediction League and provide prizes. You can get involved by lodging your prediction here or sample the merch from our sponsor’s QPR collection here. Last year’s champion Mick_S says…

“Can we do the Rangers thing and win where we perhaps shouldn’t after the last month and a bit? Why not, they’re not Brazil 1970. We’ve been a bit rubbish lately; I’m no genius but feel that we really need a performance and result on Sunday or that may be it for this season. Maybe two good, pacy, (ahem) high press halves are the most important thing? A draw under those circumstances wouldn’t be too bad. I’m going to be greedy and go 1-2 Rangers mainly because I can’t stand their whining manager.”

Mick’s Prediction: Luton 1-2 QPR. Scorer — Ilias Chair

LFW’s Prediction: Luton 2-0 QPR. No scorer.

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062259 added 04:39 - Mar 12 All 4 wing backs - Odubajo, Adomah, Wallace, McCallum (loan) - are out of contract at the end of the season. With Barbet expected to leave, and Kakay clearly not favoured, expect wholesale changes in the back line next season, in personnel and possibly formation.
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Paddyhoops added 09:48 - Mar 12 Daunting prospect of our season being over by midweek. Have a feeling we will nick something Sunday though.
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Burnleyhoop added 10:25 - Mar 12 Warburton has come out swinging this week and has clearly been stung by the criticism of his team from all quarters. He has quite rightly enthused about the quality in his side, but we all know you need more than quality to win games. Let’s hope his boys come out swinging tomorrow and the quality does indeed shine through.
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extratimeR added 12:08 - Mar 12 Had to laugh Clive at you getting the Sky letter, ( I've actually seen that taxi/shirts/scarves "banter chat" on Sky, ( to be topical I guess it should now show "the fans snorting coke and head butting each other" ). Yes, I thought Cardiff was a big improvement on the two previous games, we just now look leggy and lacking belief. Still optimistic about tomorrow. Thanks Clive

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TacticalR added 11:32 - Mar 13 Thanks for your preview. Fans in scarves in cafés? Black cabs? Scenes from the Museum of the Working Class. Perhaps appropriate as the working class is absent as a threatening political force, so Sky Sports can impose whatever images it wants. I do like talking to hairdressers though. For today's game we all hope the real QPR (well the one from earlier in the season) will stand up, but it's pretty hard to play without an effective strike force.

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