Forum | Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K by AnotherJohn

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Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K 10:58 - Sep 16 with 1011 views

Yesterday the Home Secretary told a H of C select committee that the cost of each return under the deal with France is about £56,000. It is unclear whether this takes account of the full upfront payment to France, although the Telegraph does mention some specific activities that are included in the cost calculation.

https://committees.parliament.

Story from expat forum below:

The Home Secretary has told MPs that the Government’s “one in, one out” scheme has cost about £56,000 for every person sent from the UK to France since it began in August 2025.

Shabana Mahmood made the disclosure during a hearing of the House of Commons Home Affairs Select Committee, where she was asked whether the policy offers value for taxpayers.

Cost Per Return
Mahmood said she would update the committee once the latest figures were available, but that the cost figure quoted was based on returns made so far.

She said: “I’ll need to write to the committee on the most recent figures.” She added that for the number of people returned to date, the cost was “about £56,000”.

Since the scheme started, the Home Office has removed about 1,400 people to France. Mahmood also noted that some individuals have subsequently returned to the UK, including via lorries or small boats.

The Home Secretary later defended the spending by arguing that it was “still cheaper, or just about the same as supporting someone in a hotel for a year”, in the context of alternative accommodation costs.

How the “One In, One Out” Deal Works
Under the arrangement, the UK removes a person who arrived in the country via small boats and sends them back to France. In exchange, the UK grants entry to an asylum seeker who applies through legal routes.

The pilot was due to run for a limited period, but it has already been extended once and is now scheduled to end in October. Its longer-term future is still undecided.

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The Home Secretary said the programme had struggled to scale up for higher removal numbers. She described it as “operationally difficult” to increase removals, pointing to constraints including detention capacity.

She told MPs that, while the pilot had produced results, “the numbers are still relatively small” and that the scheme had “challenges”.

EU Plans And Dublin Rejection
France has said it wants the bilateral model replaced over time by a broader EU-UK returns agreement.

Mahmood said the UK should not assume that an EU-wide mechanism would solve the Channel crisis. She rejected suggestions that an EU system would be a “silver bullet”, telling MPs it would not eliminate the problem.

She said that the scheme had already returned more people than Britain had achieved under the EU’s earlier Dublin arrangements, which existed before the UK left the bloc. She also said attempts to continue Dublin-style returns after Brexit had been rejected by EU leaders.

France Seeks To End The Pilot
Earlier in the week, it emerged that Laurent Nuñez, France’s interior minister, had told Mahmood that he wants to end the scheme.

Nuñez previously told a French parliamentary inquiry in June that France wanted to move away from what he described as a bilateral relationship with the UK. He said France did not want to “carry it alone” and argued that the programme should be integrated into an agreement between the EU and UK.

According to the position relayed to Mahmood, the pilot agreement signed in August 2025 was “not intended to be renewed beyond October 1, 2026”.

Separate Offer For Voluntary Departure
Mahmood also told MPs about a separate pilot under which some rejected asylum-seeking families could be offered up to £40,000 to leave the UK voluntarily.

She said only “relatively small numbers” had taken up that offer. She described the trade-off for families as the chance to receive £40,000 to support resettlement in their country of origin, in exchange for access they would otherwise have to services such as free healthcare and education for children.

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 13:29 - Sep 16 with 958 views

JACKMANANDBOY

Keep paying your taxes.

How much are the incomers costing?

	Besian Idrizaj Forever a Jack
Poll:	Your World Cup Verdict

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 14:16 - Sep 16 with 945 views

AnotherJohn

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 13:29 - Sep 16 by JACKMANANDBOY
Keep paying your taxes. How much are the incomers costing?

Related questions: How much do the occupants of one mega dinghy landed in the UK cost the country? Should the CEO of the RNLI get his organisation to make a contribution?

[Post edited 16 Sep 14:17]

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 18:44 - Sep 16 with 899 views

shingle

That is what happens when you govern a nation of easily led idiots.

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 18:51 - Sep 16 with 891 views

builthjack

How much did Rwanda cost?
I heard Rwanda were paid over £300m, then there’s all the other costs.
It probably hit a billion.

Swansea Indepenent Poster Of The Year 2021. Dr P / Mart66 / Roathie / Parlay / E20/ Duffle was 2nd, but he is deluded and thinks in his little twisted brain that he won. Poor sod. We let him win this year, as he has cried for a whole year. His 14 usernames, bless his cotton socks.

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 19:12 - Sep 16 with 880 views

SullutaCreturned

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 18:44 - Sep 16 by shingle
That is what happens when you govern a nation of easily led idiots.

It's Gramsci's hegeony, power through consent.. We feel like we have a say when in reality whoever we elect do as they please. We are kept in line by what we are told are societal norms, in return we get things that we should be grateful for like schools, the NHS, the police and in return we obey unconditionally.

https://www.livinganthropologi

Maybe the time is coming when we stop consenting?

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 19:14 - Sep 16 with 880 views

Boundy

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 18:51 - Sep 16 by builthjack
How much did Rwanda cost? I heard Rwanda were paid over £300m, then there’s all the other costs. It probably hit a billion.

A scheme which was never given a chance to work and your way off the figure

"In a free society, the State is the servant of the people—not the master."

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 19:35 - Sep 16 with 868 views

onehunglow

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 19:14 - Sep 16 by Boundy
A scheme which was never given a chance to work and your way off the figure

I thought it was a good idea that the Tories bottled out of
That was their problem , Johnno and him
Wanting to be popular

They shitout of many things

I detested them for different reasons to some

Poll:

Christmas. Enjoyable or not

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 19:54 - Sep 16 with 858 views

builthjack

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 19:14 - Sep 16 by Boundy
A scheme which was never given a chance to work and your way off the figure

It was never going to work and my figure would be near the mark.

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 20:40 - Sep 16 with 840 views

AnotherJohn

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 19:54 - Sep 16 by builthjack
It was never going to work and my figure would be near the mark.

The Irish Government got very twitchy when with Rwanda on the horizon 30% of migrants entering the Republic were coming from the UK.

https://www.irishtimes.com/ire

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 07:59 - Sep 17 with 795 views

Boundy

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 19:54 - Sep 16 by builthjack
It was never going to work and my figure would be near the mark.

you said billions , it wasn't according to official government figures it was 715 million and unless it was tried how would we know.whether it would have worked
What we do know is that this one in out scheme is a joke and an expensive one at that .80 + years ago we managed to stop being invaded by a number of german divisions aided by a airforce which was greater than ours and today due to a lack of will and a corrupt political class we can't stop rubber boats full of "unarmed" men.

"In a free society, the State is the servant of the people—not the master."

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 08:27 - Sep 17 with 770 views

Scotia

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 07:59 - Sep 17 by Boundy

The initial capacity in Rwanda was for about 200, rising to a 1000 with potentially an increase over a long time fram from that. Basically one flight initially and we'd have been back to square one.

We can't really live ammunition in French waters.

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 08:40 - Sep 17 with 760 views

Scotia

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 20:40 - Sep 16 by AnotherJohn
The Irish Government got very twitchy when with Rwanda on the horizon 30% of migrants entering the Republic were coming from the UK. https://www.irishtimes.com/ire

This is an interesting statement.

“important for people in Britain to understand this is a two-way agreement. This is to ensure that refugees can be sent in both directions if their application is inadmissible.”

Swap Britain for France in that sentence and we may get somewhere. I'd say it's pretty much impossible though.

Immigration from Northen Ireland to Ireland was nothing to do with Rwanda, the rates remained high since the plan was abandoned. 90% of migrants in Ireland crossed the border over the last three years, Rwanda was basically halted in June 2023 with asylum claimants coming via the UK reaching a peak in 2024.

https://www.theguardian.com/uk

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 08:48 - Sep 17 with 761 views

AnotherJohn

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 08:27 - Sep 17 by Scotia
The initial capacity in Rwanda was for about 200, rising to a 1000 with potentially an increase over a long time fram from that. Basically one flight initially and we'd have been back to square one. We can't really live ammunition in French waters.

There are only a few cross-Channel routes where French territorial waters meet UK waters with nothing in between. I am not recommending it, but have you seen what the Greek coastguard do in international waters?

https://aegeanboatreport.com/2

Just an example of what is possible at the extreme.

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 08:56 - Sep 17 with 749 views

Scotia

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 08:48 - Sep 17 by AnotherJohn
There are only a few cross-Channel routes where French territorial waters meet UK waters with nothing in between. I am not recommending it, but have you seen what the Greek coastguard do in international waters? https://aegeanboatreport.com/2 Just an example of what is possible at the extreme.

It's possible but illegal. Isn't going to happen here, and absolutley shouldn't.

"the Greek Coastguard has escalated its illegal and vicious violence"

Also a national coastguard wearing an Asics hoodie?

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 10:09 - Sep 17 with 723 views

AnotherJohn

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 08:40 - Sep 17 by Scotia

The pro-immigration lobby, including Left-leaning media and some researchers, are desperate to say that Rwanda had no impact on Ireland, but Government Ministers such as Helen McEntee and Michael Martin were convinced that it did. McEntre went so far as to claim that 80% of arrivals at that time were coming from the UK. Contemporaneous interviews with migrants in the UK print media suggested that some at least feared deportation there.

https://www.infomigrants.net/e

https://www.standard.co.uk/new

https://www.irishtimes.com/ire

https://thesudantimes.com/afri

A recent study suggests that there was a deterrent effect.

Wood, R. M. (2025). “Factors Affecting Illegal Migration to the UK by Small-Boat Crossing of the English Channel: Descriptive, Inferential and Predictive Analyses.” International Migration Review. DOI: 10.1177/01979183251394003. (paywall). So:
https://www.researchgate.net/p

Wood writes: "...this analysis finds 24% higher arrivals follow the cancelling of the Rwanda scheme (with the change of government in 2024), versus previous comments that “the launch of the Rwanda policy does not appear to have had any deterrent impact” (Brooks 2023) ."

Summary here: https://www.express.co.uk/news

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 10:35 - Sep 17 with 712 views

Boundy

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 08:27 - Sep 17 by Scotia
The initial capacity in Rwanda was for about 200, rising to a 1000 with potentially an increase over a long time fram from that. Basically one flight initially and we'd have been back to square one. We can't really live ammunition in French waters.

We can in ours

"In a free society, the State is the servant of the people—not the master."

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 10:46 - Sep 17 with 698 views

onehunglow

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 08:27 - Sep 17 by Scotia
The initial capacity in Rwanda was for about 200, rising to a 1000 with potentially an increase over a long time fram from that. Basically one flight initially and we'd have been back to square one. We can't really live ammunition in French waters.

1000 less would do me

Poll:

Christmas. Enjoyable or not

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 10:58 - Sep 17 with 687 views

jack_lord

My silly suggestion of the day

We get a big dinghy and fill it with Swansea Independent poster and sail from France (leave our passports aside) and rock up on the south coast (with all the camera crews filming) claim asylum saying that we just want free everything as we want to get value for all the taxes we have already paid

Knowing my luck the French police would actually do their job

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Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 11:20 - Sep 17 with 680 views

AnotherJohn

Nice to see a bit of humour on a depressing thread!

The French police would almost certainly detain us on he beach, and we wouldn't even be the first Brits to end up in a French cell.

https://www.lemonde.fr/en/fran

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 11:20 - Sep 17 with 678 views

Scotia

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 10:09 - Sep 17 by AnotherJohn

Well the first example just quotes the Daily Telegraph, The Irish minister would appear to be raising concerns a little prematurely because arrivals peaked after the Rwanda scheme was effectively dead in the water.

You've also made an importnat ommission in your quote from Wood, the complete quote is:-

"And, again, while not statistically significant, this analysis finds 24% higher arrivals follow the cancelling of the Rwanda scheme"

He goes on to say:-

"What is, however, very clear from the current analysis is an association between migrant
arrivals and the weather and sea conditions. While such associations would, of course, be
roundly expected, this study makes an important addition to the literature through
quantitatively describing the extent of those relationships in terms of the specific contributions from wave height, sea temperature, and wind direction and speed. The size of the associations is considerable and is supported by statistical evidence."

Now if you information from this website :- https://www.dnv.com/article/wi

The weather conditions following the change of government total cancellation of Rwanda scheme in May, it says :-

"2024 overall was slightly less windy than the long-term average across the UK and Ireland, with late spring and summer months experiencing weaker-than-normal wind generation potential"

Of course Zia Yusuf recently blamed the Summer weather this year for a decrease in small boat arrivals.

Anyway, it is clear that the "one in one out" scheme has been far more successful than Rwanda. £56k per migrant Vs £178,750,000 per migrant (and they volunteered).

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 12:05 - Sep 17 with 660 views

AnotherJohn

Cost of each return under one-in-one out deal with France is about £56K on 11:20 - Sep 17 by Scotia

Re the Telegraph point, it would have been easy enough to find a direct quote from an official source as the Minister made statements in the Dáil Éireann. The point is that the claim about a Rwanda effect came from Irish Ministers in relevant departments of state.

Yes, the finding of the 24% fall in arrivals (on a viable day) was not statistically significant at the level set, but reflects the limited size of the data set and is still highly suggestive. Wood writes: "The lack of statistical significance in some of the findings of this analysis may not necessarily mean the associations are unimportant, but just that there is currently insufficient statistical power with the available data". The weather factor is already built into the multivariate model by identifying "viable days". We know that weather is one of the most powerful factors, but are interested in whether policy change can make a difference given that weather is outside human control . The modeling is done by extrapolating known patterns to get a predicted number of crossings on particular dates and then examining the effects of particular factors such as the Rwanda Scheme or the end of Dublin III. Interested board readers can see the article for themselves. At least it is data based, unlike a couple of earlier published articles which said there was no deterrent effect.

[Post edited 17 Sep 12:09]

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