| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread 16:29 - Nov 4 with 23729 views | robith |
Hello Fellow Rs,
Some of you may remember from years gone by I have run a thread where we track our chances of making promotion, and inevitably how many points we need to avoid relegation.
I had to stop making it just before COVID, as I had my laptop stolen which had the valuable excel sheet stuck on it.
Well, what I can tell you is OneDrive is a magical thing. It has been in the cloud all this time!
I have fixed it up and updated it for the season to date, so prepare to join me on the journey!
Historical Precedent
The average points needed to make the playoffs over the last 7 years is 75
The average points needed to avoid relegation over the last 7 years is 46
Handily the median for both is also 75 and 46, meaning there isn't one season warping our numbers
Plays offs there fore = 1.57 points per game
Survival = 0.97 points per game
Our current trajectory is 1.562 PPG, with a forecast points total of 72
If we convert this to an index, where 1 is hitting the target needed
Play Off Index 0.99
Survival Index 1.61
We are in an around the PPG total we need, but our current points trajectory only gets us to the play offs once in the last 7 years.
Now obviously we need a real world comparison too. Usually around the half way point of the season when the table is a bit more fixed, I'll start to compare each week vs the team in 6th and 21st and their trajectory.
Bossing last season, though obviously we had a pretty rough 1st half of the season
This shows our forecast points based on PPG by week and where it would've got us last season. As you can see historically we'd need to get just a little better to get over 75 to be in with a shot
TL;DR - we're in the mix for sure, but at the 5/6th marker rather than guaranteed play offs.
I'll update weekly(ish) [Post edited 8 Nov 2021 10:32]
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:30 - Dec 1 with 4104 views | nix |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:02 - Dec 1 by Maggsinho |
Great stuff.
How much have we closed the gap on Bournemouth recently? Must be a few points.
I see they're playing at Fulham on Saturday so if they lost that and we beat Stoke - neither beyond the realms of possibility - it puts us only four points behind. Could set up the game on the 27th rather nicely. |
After 17 matches, Bournemouth had 40 points and we had 26. So we've closed the gap a fair bit since then. Fulham incidentally had 38 points after 17 matches so we've gained four points on them too. |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:34 - Dec 1 with 4028 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:13 - Dec 1 by ozranger |
I know it may be a big ask Robith, but have you taken into account home v away. That is, given we have already done the away trips to the top 2 plus 4th, that may effect the figures as one would expect a better performance at home. How you factor that in, I am unsure. |
So in the season's past I looked at home and away, and previous season's results, but it go overcomplicated and unrobust quickly!
I certainly could look at our home and away trajectories and use that to factor another points forecast though | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 08:45 - Dec 2 with 3828 views | QPR_Nippon |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:34 - Dec 1 by robith |
So in the season's past I looked at home and away, and previous season's results, but it go overcomplicated and unrobust quickly!
I certainly could look at our home and away trajectories and use that to factor another points forecast though |
Great work as always, Robith.
Another little stat to throw into the mix:
In 2021 we have scored a total of 82 points from 43 games.
So we could quite conceivably, in the calendar year, surpass the points total (88) from our 2010/11 championship winning season  |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:13 - Dec 2 with 3704 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:02 - Dec 1 by Maggsinho |
Great stuff.
How much have we closed the gap on Bournemouth recently? Must be a few points.
I see they're playing at Fulham on Saturday so if they lost that and we beat Stoke - neither beyond the realms of possibility - it puts us only four points behind. Could set up the game on the 27th rather nicely. |
I'm too nice to you guys
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:58 - Jan 11 with 3470 views | robith |
Hi Guys,
I had COVID in December and it messed me up pretty badly, so I've been laid pretty low for the last month.
The Rona has also caused havoc with keeping these numbers up to date!
My solution has been I will log the games we play as our gameweeks, but will keep wider trends in line with when the league played those matches - so for eg our numbers go up to 24 weeks, but the league stats are on 25
Thanks as ever to the Ipswich Town version of LFW which for some reason is the only place on the internet you can split the league by date
Overall index number still solid
Auto 0.92
Playoffs 1.09
Survival 1.76
On trends we're still just about there
But on current season, we're starting to really establish as a play off player
Now I had Bournemouth and Fulham as tracking but they're no longer 1 & 2 so I've kept their original numbers and now changed them to 1&2, deal with it, I'm not doing it from scratch haha
Eye open emoji.
I'll re do play off contenders when everyone's back on the same games played, too much variance atm | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:26 - Jan 11 with 3416 views | Noelmc |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:58 - Jan 11 by robith |
Hi Guys,
I had COVID in December and it messed me up pretty badly, so I've been laid pretty low for the last month.
The Rona has also caused havoc with keeping these numbers up to date!
My solution has been I will log the games we play as our gameweeks, but will keep wider trends in line with when the league played those matches - so for eg our numbers go up to 24 weeks, but the league stats are on 25
Thanks as ever to the Ipswich Town version of LFW which for some reason is the only place on the internet you can split the league by date
Overall index number still solid
Auto 0.92
Playoffs 1.09
Survival 1.76
On trends we're still just about there
But on current season, we're starting to really establish as a play off player
Now I had Bournemouth and Fulham as tracking but they're no longer 1 & 2 so I've kept their original numbers and now changed them to 1&2, deal with it, I'm not doing it from scratch haha
Eye open emoji.
I'll re do play off contenders when everyone's back on the same games played, too much variance atm |
Thanks Robith. Looking good so far.
Glad you are recovered from COVID and look forward to your updates. |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 15:34 - Jan 11 with 3264 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 11:26 - Jan 11 by Noelmc |
Thanks Robith. Looking good so far.
Glad you are recovered from COVID and look forward to your updates. |
Cheers Noel.
It got a bit hairy at one point, but much better now. Though still have a wheezing cough, periods of breathlessness and "brain fog", though how much of that is covid and how much is January it's hard to parse | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:35 - Jan 17 with 3067 views | robith |
Can't do a full update but having witnessed that spectacle on Saturday with my old man, who's only wish before he loses his battle to the big C was to see a Charlie Austin winner, I wanted to excite everyone.
Indices creep up:
Automatic 0.95
Play offs: 1.12
The play off places are all out of sync with fixtures, but us and Blackburn are really starting to put the pressure on
You. Rs. Believe. | | | |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:19 - Jan 17 with 2925 views | terryb |
Cheers robith.
It must have been a wonderful & very emotional moment for you when Charlie scored!
Best wishes to your father & there were tears in my eyes when I read about his wish & he was there to see it. |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 16:57 - Jan 17 with 2780 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:19 - Jan 17 by terryb |
Cheers robith.
It must have been a wonderful & very emotional moment for you when Charlie scored!
Best wishes to your father & there were tears in my eyes when I read about his wish & he was there to see it. |
It took a lot of stiff lip to front it in the pub afters.
His last game prior to today was the Cov game. His condition had started to deteriorate again then and when Barbet scored it was pretty crushing telling him when he asked "Was it Charlie??", so it was nice to see him trying to hurdle over seats to give it to the away fans (before deciding against it) | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 17:13 - Jan 17 with 2741 views | WatfordR |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 16:57 - Jan 17 by robith |
It took a lot of stiff lip to front it in the pub afters.
His last game prior to today was the Cov game. His condition had started to deteriorate again then and when Barbet scored it was pretty crushing telling him when he asked "Was it Charlie??", so it was nice to see him trying to hurdle over seats to give it to the away fans (before deciding against it) |
Oh man. Just when I thought Saturday really could not have been much better. I'm absolutely thrilled to hear that particular bucket list wish ticked off for your dad.
All my best wishes to you and him. |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 17:13 - Jan 22 with 2555 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
Automatic promotion now in our hands.
Unbelievable. Thought this was gonna be a good season but didn’t see us potentially second going into February. [Post edited 22 Jan 2022 17:18]
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 18:56 - Jan 22 with 2367 views | TomS |
Given we have passed 46 points, we should now be safe from relegation. Well done everyone, job done.
Time for the team to start planning that summer holiday to Ibiza.  |  | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 00:03 - Jan 23 with 2217 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 18:56 - Jan 22 by TomS |
Given we have passed 46 points, we should now be safe from relegation. Well done everyone, job done.
Time for the team to start planning that summer holiday to Ibiza. |
Messaged a group chat with this today - let's face it as qpr fans that's the real quiz right | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:25 - Jan 23 with 2039 views | OldPedro |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 18:56 - Jan 22 by TomS |
Given we have passed 46 points, we should now be safe from relegation. Well done everyone, job done.
Time for the team to start planning that summer holiday to Ibiza. |
Isn't it generally 50 pts to avoid relegation..........
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| Extra mature cheddar......a simple cheese for a simple man |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:20 - Jan 23 with 1883 views | terryb |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:25 - Jan 23 by OldPedro |
Isn't it generally 50 pts to avoid relegation..........
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Once in every ten seasons at most!
This season 40 points may be enough! | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:31 - Jan 23 with 1828 views | kensalriser |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 13:20 - Jan 23 by terryb |
Once in every ten seasons at most!
This season 40 points may be enough! |
You might be right - I usually reckon on a minimum point per game to stay up and you're up to Hull in 19th before you find a team exceeding that. |  |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 09:49 - Jan 24 with 1611 views | robith |
This season is proving more competitive vs last year below first
Points needed last season vs this season's trends
Automatic: 91 vs 86
Play Offs: 77 vs 77
Survival: 44 vs 38 | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 09:52 - Jan 24 with 1604 views | robith |
I realised a formula wasn't working, so this is now my favourite chart:
And this one makes me think:
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:17 - Jan 24 with 1538 views | nix |
Loving these Robith.
Another indicator is the bookies. We know how clever they are at forecasting. On my £35 bet on QPR getting promoted, with a £280 projected win, they're now offering me £62 to cash out. Are they starting to get nervous about us? | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:27 - Jan 24 with 1508 views | toboboly |
Worst thing is realising just how many games are left in the season! If we can beat Swansea and go second is there an emergency once in a lifetime button that we can press and have the season finish there and then? |  |
| Sexy Asian dwarves wanted. |
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| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:28 - Jan 24 with 1500 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:27 - Jan 24 by toboboly |
Worst thing is realising just how many games are left in the season! If we can beat Swansea and go second is there an emergency once in a lifetime button that we can press and have the season finish there and then? |
STOP THE COUNT! | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:35 - Jan 24 with 1474 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:17 - Jan 24 by nix |
Loving these Robith.
Another indicator is the bookies. We know how clever they are at forecasting. On my £35 bet on QPR getting promoted, with a £280 projected win, they're now offering me £62 to cash out. Are they starting to get nervous about us? |
Depends on the bookmaker. Mostly cash out is a behavioural science tool to manage liabilities. Looking at current market prices, I'd say your cash out actually should be closer to £100.
That said 365 seem to have completely plopped the bed and gone 5/2, almost half the price of the market norm | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:36 - Jan 24 with 1468 views | robith |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:27 - Jan 24 by toboboly |
Worst thing is realising just how many games are left in the season! If we can beat Swansea and go second is there an emergency once in a lifetime button that we can press and have the season finish there and then? |
The big challenge is, if we establish ourselves as second, a lot of the charts will not look as good | | | |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 12:11 - Jan 24 with 1386 views | toboboly |
| robith's 21/22 Promotion/Relegation Index Thread on 10:36 - Jan 24 by robith |
The big challenge is, if we establish ourselves as second, a lot of the charts will not look as good |
There must be a way of making bad news look good? Seek inspiration from Downing Street? | |
| Sexy Asian dwarves wanted. |
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