| Markets. 16:13 - Oct 16 with 3030 views | Brightonhoop |
Am not as in tune as I once was, so to those ITK are we headed for another Bank crash and what are the implications this time? There are some frightening predictions from those who predicted rightly last time around. |  | | |  |
| Markets. on 22:03 - Oct 16 with 2114 views | zicoshoops |
Trillions of Dollars/Pounds have been printed since the crash, in the USA, Japan and us, yet it's just papered over the cracks.
The result?......you print money via 'Quantative Easing.' and the Markets rise.
Diversify using Global Funds, and keep buying. (drip feeding monthly)
The EU should have started printing money about two years back......but they didn't.
They should have started Quantative Easing by now.......but they haven't.
Keep buying Globally, except for the obvious corrupt basket cases......no names mentioned. (Russia, Most of Africa, India, China).......China? Yes indeed.
The Euro Nations/Economies are heading straight down the sh.itter, and have been for a good while.
Pride comes before a fall.
Go 'Long' on European (Excluding UK) Funds. |  | | |
| Markets. on 22:18 - Oct 16 with 2081 views | BrianMcCarthy |
Nothing definite but the danger of a crash is very real.
There was a Hindenburg Omen on the 15th September and with Bearish Divergence evident for weeks the chances of a cycle-ending crash are very high.
I wouldn't be shorting the market on just this info but I've certainly sold all stocks, shares and options and converted to cash. Should the market crash the time might be right to spread the pension bobs into gold. |  |
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| Markets. on 22:27 - Oct 16 with 2055 views | kingsburyR |
| Markets. on 22:18 - Oct 16 by BrianMcCarthy |
Nothing definite but the danger of a crash is very real.
There was a Hindenburg Omen on the 15th September and with Bearish Divergence evident for weeks the chances of a cycle-ending crash are very high.
I wouldn't be shorting the market on just this info but I've certainly sold all stocks, shares and options and converted to cash. Should the market crash the time might be right to spread the pension bobs into gold. |
What's that in English? |  |
| Dont know why we bother. .... but we do! |
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| Markets. on 22:29 - Oct 16 with 2054 views | johann28 |
US analysts have been predicting for some time that a "correction" (ie crash) is due in the stock markets: share prices have risen so consistently for so long they are now considerably over-valued, across the board, so many think that it's a question of when, not if, but of course the key question is how bad it's going to be. Data from the New York Stock Exchange show that more and more professional investors have been acquiring shares on credit, the practice of "buying on the margin". While this heightens their ability to make a profit, it also leaves them dangerously exposed should the market start to decline - a mild correction could rapidly snowball into a major one. Traders on the NYSE are now more exposed because of buying on the margin than they were just before the 2007 financial downturn.
Obviously, a US correction would seriously affect us. Every time the US reduces its current recession-busting programme of QE, the UK's FTSE 100 index of share prices among 100 leading companies falls alongside it. And with the US stock market solid, many European and UK investors have been buying bonds and shares over there.
And even if there is no cataclysmic crash, investors' returns during the next 10 years will be low with no continuation of the buoyant market seen since 2009. The signs are: UK interest rates at their lowest level in three centuries, corporate debt now 35 per cent higher than it was before the 2007 crash, a US stock market value-to-earnings ratio 60 per cent higher than the long-term average — and the approaching end of QE in the US. |  | | |
| Markets. on 22:43 - Oct 16 with 2005 views | essextaxiboy |
| Markets. on 22:29 - Oct 16 by johann28 |
US analysts have been predicting for some time that a "correction" (ie crash) is due in the stock markets: share prices have risen so consistently for so long they are now considerably over-valued, across the board, so many think that it's a question of when, not if, but of course the key question is how bad it's going to be. Data from the New York Stock Exchange show that more and more professional investors have been acquiring shares on credit, the practice of "buying on the margin". While this heightens their ability to make a profit, it also leaves them dangerously exposed should the market start to decline - a mild correction could rapidly snowball into a major one. Traders on the NYSE are now more exposed because of buying on the margin than they were just before the 2007 financial downturn.
Obviously, a US correction would seriously affect us. Every time the US reduces its current recession-busting programme of QE, the UK's FTSE 100 index of share prices among 100 leading companies falls alongside it. And with the US stock market solid, many European and UK investors have been buying bonds and shares over there.
And even if there is no cataclysmic crash, investors' returns during the next 10 years will be low with no continuation of the buoyant market seen since 2009. The signs are: UK interest rates at their lowest level in three centuries, corporate debt now 35 per cent higher than it was before the 2007 crash, a US stock market value-to-earnings ratio 60 per cent higher than the long-term average — and the approaching end of QE in the US. |
IMO its just the coming together of the ECB reluctance to introduce QE coupled with world events . Ukraine , Syria , Iraq .
We have had a 5 yr bull market so was due a correction , there could be some "buy "opportunities at the moment.
I have lost about 5% this year to date  |  | | |
| Markets. on 22:54 - Oct 16 with 1981 views | YorkRanger |
Personally I wouldn't panic just yet. Figures from the States yesterday, spooked the markets about the global economy and in the UK inflation figures fell (bad news for savers, but reduces pressure for an interest rate rise which almost certainly now will not move until after the Election).
Equity investment, as ever, is a long term play - take a view on short term capital needs, otherwise sit tight would be my opinion. |  | | |
| Markets. on 23:00 - Oct 16 with 1954 views | essextaxiboy |
| Markets. on 22:54 - Oct 16 by YorkRanger |
Personally I wouldn't panic just yet. Figures from the States yesterday, spooked the markets about the global economy and in the UK inflation figures fell (bad news for savers, but reduces pressure for an interest rate rise which almost certainly now will not move until after the Election).
Equity investment, as ever, is a long term play - take a view on short term capital needs, otherwise sit tight would be my opinion. |
Sitting tight is my plan , Selling realises the losses . At the moment its just wooden dollars on a screen . | | | |
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| Markets. on 23:02 - Oct 16 with 1950 views | TheBlob |
It's all a gigantic Ponzi Scheme. |  |
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| Markets. on 23:04 - Oct 16 with 1939 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Markets. on 22:27 - Oct 16 by kingsburyR |
What's that in English? |
Sorry!
I wouldn't buy options on the market going down, but I would, and have, converted everything to cash. If the market doesn't crash then great, buy again. But this is one of those times when I feel safer not being in the game. | |
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| Markets. on 23:05 - Oct 16 with 1936 views | ted_hendrix |
| Markets. on 22:54 - Oct 16 by YorkRanger |
Personally I wouldn't panic just yet. Figures from the States yesterday, spooked the markets about the global economy and in the UK inflation figures fell (bad news for savers, but reduces pressure for an interest rate rise which almost certainly now will not move until after the Election).
Equity investment, as ever, is a long term play - take a view on short term capital needs, otherwise sit tight would be my opinion. |
I couldn't sit tight, back in June of this year you could see what was on the horizon any fool could, I sold my Company shares for a very decent profit, that's twice I've done that over the Years and 'binned' a fat wedge on both occasions.
I'm not an expert by any means but you do need a little bit of nous, the shares I sold in June have since dropped by almost £4.
You also need a bit of luck too. |  |
| My Father had a profound influence on me, he was a lunatic. |
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| Markets. on 23:05 - Oct 16 with 1932 views | TheBlob |
| Markets. on 23:04 - Oct 16 by BrianMcCarthy |
Sorry!
I wouldn't buy options on the market going down, but I would, and have, converted everything to cash. If the market doesn't crash then great, buy again. But this is one of those times when I feel safer not being in the game. |
Same as that.
Brown furniture will rise again.
Oh yes. | |
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| Markets. on 23:10 - Oct 16 with 1913 views | essextaxiboy |
| Markets. on 23:05 - Oct 16 by ted_hendrix |
I couldn't sit tight, back in June of this year you could see what was on the horizon any fool could, I sold my Company shares for a very decent profit, that's twice I've done that over the Years and 'binned' a fat wedge on both occasions.
I'm not an expert by any means but you do need a little bit of nous, the shares I sold in June have since dropped by almost £4.
You also need a bit of luck too. |
You could buy them back and start building a third wedge . | | | |
| Markets. on 03:56 - Oct 17 with 1784 views | jamois |
Blob is right about staying out of debt. Yet I think there is much technical evidence to suggest that the bull run will remain in the states for a while longer. We're nearing a series of topping waves, fours and fives, that will bring the bull run since 2009 to an end, but probably not until later next year at the earliest. So a series of corrections like the current one followed by new highs essentially. But when the final push is over, the market will correct then start a new long term series, either up or down. My bet is that the chickens will have come home to roost by then and we're looking at a long and steady decline. So underscoring Brian, move into cash over the course of the next 6-9 months.
And beware your leveraged positions - mortgage debt, loans etc. The story of inflation will be an interesting one over the next year or so and the reaction of interest rates. More mentions of either hyperinflation or deflation. Who knows? We've never really been here before as the central banks have taken us down a novel and dark path. And there's barely a shred of decent macroeconomic data anywhere to suggest, if printing/ZIRP?TARP/bond buying or whatever euphemism it's labelled under is scaled back or stopped, that things won't come tumbling down quicker than the knickers of John Terry's missus.
Move to a tropical paradise and start a commune. Put Harry in charge of recruitment - triffic lad, smashing, knows his compost etc etc... |  |
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| Markets. on 09:21 - Oct 17 with 1639 views | Clive_Anderson |
Instead of allowing bad debt to go bust after the last crash they just gave loads of money to the unreformed banks and then piled even more debt on top. Nothing has been solved since 2008 just papered over.
How long can they keep the plates spinning? Well the Japanese have been doing it for 20 years, but I'd be surprised if the West can last anywhere near that long. Something is going to give sooner or later.
I think the best advice is don't put all your eggs in one basket. | | | |
| Markets. on 09:25 - Oct 17 with 1632 views | TheBlob |
I have a reasonably large portfolio.
For a man of my size. | |
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| Markets. on 09:30 - Oct 17 with 1623 views | simmo |
As always, cash is king. |  |
| ask Beavis I get nothing Butthead |
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| Markets. on 09:45 - Oct 17 with 1598 views | TheBlob |
And then there's the prospect of the banks charging you interest for having your money in their accounts.Put it under the bed?Bank of England changes the format every so often,and you've got the prospect of a visit from blaggers.Items easily converted into cash?see the above...Gold coins or diamonds in the bank?Good luck you Sexy Beast. | |
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| Markets. on 09:57 - Oct 17 with 1569 views | Brightonhoop |
| Markets. on 09:45 - Oct 17 by TheBlob |
And then there's the prospect of the banks charging you interest for having your money in their accounts.Put it under the bed?Bank of England changes the format every so often,and you've got the prospect of a visit from blaggers.Items easily converted into cash?see the above...Gold coins or diamonds in the bank?Good luck you Sexy Beast. |
That's my take Blob, previous metals etc in the short/medium term simply because shares etc are nearly 60% over valued meaning that correction is not going to spike beyond where we are currently for a long, long time. Land, gold, silver beats a piece of paper stating you have a heap of worthless shares in a company/bank gone/going bust. With interest rate rises due gold/silver will start rising again soon from a fairly low price currently.
The impact on pensions is going to be terrible, some predicting absurd Unemployment levels and 70's style growth, often based on lack of infrastructure in western economies post 1960's instead relying on housing booms and 'service economies' that nobody will be able to afford anyway. Grim, but not the end of the world. | | | |
| Markets. on 09:58 - Oct 17 with 1568 views | elnombre |
It's at times like these you need to be moving your money into basic commodities like fishing and agriculture.
Essentially, whale oil beef hooked. | | | |
| Markets. on 10:01 - Oct 17 with 1559 views | Lblock |
If it all goes wrong again then TF and Beard need to sack Harry and the dinosaur crew coz as far as I'm concerned it'll all be their fault..........again.
Last time the media were a huge part of the global crash. They loved having a big bad news story and ran 24/7 yellow ticker coverage.
Now I think there's a bit more reluctance - there seems to be a need to keep the good time vibe going. It's all about keeping general confidence up I suppose and the Tories clinging onto the thread that they saw us through troubled times but "there's lots more to do". People have been saying the economy is buzzing and maybe they are half right in London - but that'll always be insulated from the wider picture. I personally haven't agreed and I still think the Construction sector is deflated - bit more of my type of fit out work but at tight margins and lot's of it is actually about companies consolidating their stock, not expanding, or leases coming to an end etc. The flux in the employment market for professionals seems to be more about chickens coming home to roost as well. As usual one of the first things chopped in recessionary times is training - we just dont have new blood being trained. So those of use qualified to do jobs are in demand more due to slight improvements in workload and "natural wasteage" as people retire or jack it all in.
Property prices in London are a joke. I've been working hard to reduce my mortgage but now seeing the prices of houses down my street I wonder if I shouldn't sell up, move out to the sticks and be mortgage free.
Interesting to read peoples views on here -- I'm not a market player at all but take a bit of an interest. Seems most believe the medium term prospects are about as sound as our Prem status!!! |  |
| Cherish and enjoy life.... this ain't no dress rehearsal |
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| Markets. on 13:57 - Oct 17 with 1451 views | R_from_afar |
Another huge spanner which could potentially be hurled into the works is the "carbon bubble". A global deal to reduce greenhouse gas emissions would vastly reduce the value of shares in fossil fuels.
RFA |  |
| "Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1." |
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| Markets. on 18:04 - Oct 17 with 1390 views | jamois |
| Markets. on 09:57 - Oct 17 by Brightonhoop |
That's my take Blob, previous metals etc in the short/medium term simply because shares etc are nearly 60% over valued meaning that correction is not going to spike beyond where we are currently for a long, long time. Land, gold, silver beats a piece of paper stating you have a heap of worthless shares in a company/bank gone/going bust. With interest rate rises due gold/silver will start rising again soon from a fairly low price currently.
The impact on pensions is going to be terrible, some predicting absurd Unemployment levels and 70's style growth, often based on lack of infrastructure in western economies post 1960's instead relying on housing booms and 'service economies' that nobody will be able to afford anyway. Grim, but not the end of the world. |
I'd say I mostly agree with you there Brighton. And grim it may well be. But 'the end of the world as we know it' it could also be if you don't see financial collapse in isolation. When you look at the collective confluence of wars, geopolitics, the demise of the petrodollar, the influence of the Yuan, the pre-eminence of the BRIC nations, the massive repatriation of gold in the past 5 years, controlling metal prices (and the huge shortage of gold), the huge drop in aggregate demand, radiation levels at unprecedented levels, climate change effects, rampant viruses and governments creating draconian & totalitarian laws like the Patriot Act in the USA - well then, there is some fuel to the fire of the 'EOTWAWKI' scenarios! Oh, and I forgot to add the diabolical and declining abilities of the Superhoops and the amount of Malaysian cash we are spunking up the wall. That's the potential end of my world right there. [Post edited 17 Oct 2014 18:06]
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| Markets. on 20:09 - Oct 17 with 1314 views | TheBlob |
| Markets. on 18:04 - Oct 17 by jamois |
I'd say I mostly agree with you there Brighton. And grim it may well be. But 'the end of the world as we know it' it could also be if you don't see financial collapse in isolation. When you look at the collective confluence of wars, geopolitics, the demise of the petrodollar, the influence of the Yuan, the pre-eminence of the BRIC nations, the massive repatriation of gold in the past 5 years, controlling metal prices (and the huge shortage of gold), the huge drop in aggregate demand, radiation levels at unprecedented levels, climate change effects, rampant viruses and governments creating draconian & totalitarian laws like the Patriot Act in the USA - well then, there is some fuel to the fire of the 'EOTWAWKI' scenarios! Oh, and I forgot to add the diabolical and declining abilities of the Superhoops and the amount of Malaysian cash we are spunking up the wall. That's the potential end of my world right there. [Post edited 17 Oct 2014 18:06]
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I wouldn't go into gold,too much debasement -tungsten mostly.
If ever there's a hedge against inflation it's land.
Mark Twain said "Buy land,they're not making it anymore"
As a weather vane I've see rough grazing land around here almost doubling to £5k an acre in a few years. | |
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