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Why would you have to sell two of the best players in January, in the middle of a season when in top 6? Nobody does that.
But yes, every 24 months or so, for about a decade, Brentford really did sell three or four of their best players, at the end of a successful season, just when it looked they were getting somewhere with those key players.
It appeared suicidal each time, but Benham and his team could see the end of a cycle others - including fans - could not. They could also, crucially, see the start of a new cycle.
This is the key. Brentford have Mathew Benham in charge: a maths genius with a degree from Oxford in physics, who made big money in the city, invented an analytics tool and betting company. He applied those skills and experience to football, firstly at Midtjylland in Denmark, where he invested £6m of his own money to successfully test out his theories, then at his beloved Brentford, where he appointed two people with complimentary experience at his betting firm and Midtjylland as his co-DOFs...
Most clubs don't have that person. QPR don't, which is part of the problem for me when Christian Nourry speaks in interviews as if he is that person. If you ever hear Benham speak about his work, he doesn't even sound as much like that person as Nourry does.
We'll see what Nourry does next summer. Can he sell Madsen, Burrell, Varane and maybe Edwards for big profit? That's the test. I can then compare the trading with what Benham - a genuine whizz kid, the actual "Lionel Messi of football administration" (arf) - did after three seasons running a club with our wannabe. Buying is the easy bit. Buying, selling, replenishing...that's the important cycle.
Thanks for the strawman accusation, much appreciated.
Are you saying that if we are going well next season, under this plan, and we get offered decent money in the January window for any of the players who have propelled us there - we won't be cashing in? Really?
I sincerely hope that's the case, but we can hardly go full bore behind this plan and then magically pick and choose when we get a good offer for someone like Burrell. With the fitness record, and our record as a club generally, (and this is my original point) isn't the only time we are realistically going to be able to cash in is when they are in a good run of form? Therefore January appears the most likely scenario.
Then, and only then, once you have done that a few times and build up a reputation of finding gems - you are much more likely to be able to sell assets at a high price at any time of your choosing.
I find it fanciful that we are just going to be able to sell when we want to at a nice, comfortable time for everyone.
So, isn't your (excellent) point about cycles also emphasising the fact that we have to get the first cycle done - and it will be the most painful?
A long time ago, but this is a fan base that nearly rioted when Peacock was sold and we were flying high in the Premier League.
However docile we are now, let's see how well it goes down when a January sales spree costs us a play-off push.
Thanks for the strawman accusation, much appreciated.
Are you saying that if we are going well next season, under this plan, and we get offered decent money in the January window for any of the players who have propelled us there - we won't be cashing in? Really?
I sincerely hope that's the case, but we can hardly go full bore behind this plan and then magically pick and choose when we get a good offer for someone like Burrell. With the fitness record, and our record as a club generally, (and this is my original point) isn't the only time we are realistically going to be able to cash in is when they are in a good run of form? Therefore January appears the most likely scenario.
Then, and only then, once you have done that a few times and build up a reputation of finding gems - you are much more likely to be able to sell assets at a high price at any time of your choosing.
I find it fanciful that we are just going to be able to sell when we want to at a nice, comfortable time for everyone.
So, isn't your (excellent) point about cycles also emphasising the fact that we have to get the first cycle done - and it will be the most painful?
A long time ago, but this is a fan base that nearly rioted when Peacock was sold and we were flying high in the Premier League.
However docile we are now, let's see how well it goes down when a January sales spree costs us a play-off push.
Pain first, jam tomorrow?
It's not my plan. But it's the club's plan as a "development club".
I think QPR actually have got a very good person in Belk handling recruitment. He's been doing it at this level, with this budget, at this topsy-turvy club for a decade now. And he's bought lots of very good players for us (yes, he has). He's probably as good as we can get at the back end.
But at the front of the shop, do we have the right people shining those rough diamonds up and selling at big profit just at their most valuable moment (why January?! Nobody's doing this in January)? Let's see. That's the model.
Here, you may doubt it possible but a successful development club like Brentford prove it is not. It is an essential part of recruiting and selling while moving up the league. It can be done. Here's some of what Brentford did:
Brentford 2015/16:
Having just finished 5th, they sold all their best players for big profits:
Stuart Douglas £1.3m Moses Odubajo £3.5m Andre Gray £9m James Tarkowski £3
Of that £17m incoming, they only spent £6m. Signed Bentley, Egan, Romaine Sawyers on frees, small fee for Canos, £1.5 Rico Henry. All future mainstays. Came 9th. That next summer...
Then sold Scott Hogan to Villa for £10 million.
Replaced Hogan with Maupay for £1.8m and Watkins for £1.8 million. Two better players and £6m profit, plus Forss for free.
Within two years, Maupay was sold for £20m, within three Watkins went for £28m and even Forss who suffered bad injuries went for £3m. Ivan Toney then replaced those ireplaceable strikers…
2018:
Sold Chris Mepham for £12 million Ryan Woods for £7m John Egan for £4m
Signed Josh Dasilva on a free (and Odujabo back on a free!) Konsa for £2.5m Benhrama for £3m
Soon enough made £30m profit on Konsa and Benhrama.
Sold Toney for £40m, top of the range after Euro 24, another £35m profit. Invested £30m - gasp - of that on Thiago, who will hit 20 goals this season and a valuation of £60m.
That’s how you do it, if you know what you’re doing.
There's loads more to it, if you wanna dig out the recent Benham interview he did on YoutTube. I find him just as nauseatingly smug as Nourry in conversation but at least he has bona fide hits to name. There's a really interesting thing about him importing the culture and working practices he discovered in Danish football to Brentford. It's not about ruling as a boy king, it's a huge cultural shift in that club that he helped engineer over a decade.
It's not my plan. But it's the club's plan as a "development club".
I think QPR actually have got a very good person in Belk handling recruitment. He's been doing it at this level, with this budget, at this topsy-turvy club for a decade now. And he's bought lots of very good players for us (yes, he has). He's probably as good as we can get at the back end.
But at the front of the shop, do we have the right people shining those rough diamonds up and selling at big profit just at their most valuable moment (why January?! Nobody's doing this in January)? Let's see. That's the model.
Here, you may doubt it possible but a successful development club like Brentford prove it is not. It is an essential part of recruiting and selling while moving up the league. It can be done. Here's some of what Brentford did:
Brentford 2015/16:
Having just finished 5th, they sold all their best players for big profits:
Stuart Douglas £1.3m Moses Odubajo £3.5m Andre Gray £9m James Tarkowski £3
Of that £17m incoming, they only spent £6m. Signed Bentley, Egan, Romaine Sawyers on frees, small fee for Canos, £1.5 Rico Henry. All future mainstays. Came 9th. That next summer...
Then sold Scott Hogan to Villa for £10 million.
Replaced Hogan with Maupay for £1.8m and Watkins for £1.8 million. Two better players and £6m profit, plus Forss for free.
Within two years, Maupay was sold for £20m, within three Watkins went for £28m and even Forss who suffered bad injuries went for £3m. Ivan Toney then replaced those ireplaceable strikers…
2018:
Sold Chris Mepham for £12 million Ryan Woods for £7m John Egan for £4m
Signed Josh Dasilva on a free (and Odujabo back on a free!) Konsa for £2.5m Benhrama for £3m
Soon enough made £30m profit on Konsa and Benhrama.
Sold Toney for £40m, top of the range after Euro 24, another £35m profit. Invested £30m - gasp - of that on Thiago, who will hit 20 goals this season and a valuation of £60m.
That’s how you do it, if you know what you’re doing.
There's loads more to it, if you wanna dig out the recent Benham interview he did on YoutTube. I find him just as nauseatingly smug as Nourry in conversation but at least he has bona fide hits to name. There's a really interesting thing about him importing the culture and working practices he discovered in Danish football to Brentford. It's not about ruling as a boy king, it's a huge cultural shift in that club that he helped engineer over a decade.
Apart from the obvious - Benham being much more qualified/experienced and having a much better data pool to work with - the interesting thing there is they began by having a team excel on the pitch (finished 5th) and then sold, and began the cycle. Perform - Sell - Buy (and repeat).
The challenge we have is we have done the investment bit first (I.e. serious transfer fees). Buy - Perform - Sell ?? (and repeat).
The problem is that this was the season we should have performed because we all know (and all other clubs will know) that we need to sell next season. Our accounts show it. We have to realise big sales across the next 3 windows. And we also know that new signings, especially from abroad, take a while to bed in and start performing.
So, are we going to have to skip the Perform section? If we do, a) it’ll harm player value, and b) it will piss the fans off more. Brentford fans had the “perform” bit and had faith (and low expectations, all 4,000 of them). Our fanbase has had a decade of 9th-20th in this league.
Next year we both need to Perform and Sell. That is a very hard combo to achieve. This was the year to be top 8/10 and feel like we were progressing. The reasons we haven’t have been discussed to death but accountability rests at the top.
I don’t think the plan is wrong; I just don’t think we have the right people leading and executing it, even if they know their way around PowerPoint, Excel, and Power BI (and whatever analytics platform we are subscribed to.
Apart from the obvious - Benham being much more qualified/experienced and having a much better data pool to work with - the interesting thing there is they began by having a team excel on the pitch (finished 5th) and then sold, and began the cycle. Perform - Sell - Buy (and repeat).
The challenge we have is we have done the investment bit first (I.e. serious transfer fees). Buy - Perform - Sell ?? (and repeat).
The problem is that this was the season we should have performed because we all know (and all other clubs will know) that we need to sell next season. Our accounts show it. We have to realise big sales across the next 3 windows. And we also know that new signings, especially from abroad, take a while to bed in and start performing.
So, are we going to have to skip the Perform section? If we do, a) it’ll harm player value, and b) it will piss the fans off more. Brentford fans had the “perform” bit and had faith (and low expectations, all 4,000 of them). Our fanbase has had a decade of 9th-20th in this league.
Next year we both need to Perform and Sell. That is a very hard combo to achieve. This was the year to be top 8/10 and feel like we were progressing. The reasons we haven’t have been discussed to death but accountability rests at the top.
I don’t think the plan is wrong; I just don’t think we have the right people leading and executing it, even if they know their way around PowerPoint, Excel, and Power BI (and whatever analytics platform we are subscribed to.
At some point there needs to be accountability.
Think they need to get Burrell and Madsen on the pitch for these last few weeks of the season, then hope they can sell either one or both for good money in the summer. They could.
If they had more financial headroom, they could exercise more care with both. But those photos of them training is a signal. One, a PR signal to us fans. But also a signal to suitors.
Yeah, fans will lose their sht. Brentford fans did too, and expectations were higher there from about 2016 onwards. Imagine coming 11th in 2019 and selling top scorer Maupay and best defender Konsa that summer, along with your goalie Bentley?
They were furious, thought they may go down.
They signed Raya, Mbeumo, Norgaard, came 3rd instead, lost in play-off final.
And yet, despite coming so close, they sold their gilded strikers Watkins and Benrahama next. Fans were not happy. But they went up next season.
We do not have Benham nor any of that supporting apparatus. But we have to start selling, as you say.
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