| Stato Jo's take on Finishing 2nd. 07:42 - Apr 10 with 1996 views | jopreston |
OK, so here is my take on the possibility of us finishing second. I have had a look at Ipswich remaining games, as they are the ones with the games in hand. I have had a good think about their likely results, with a view to seeing just how hard/possible it might be and here it is!
Norwich v Ipswich - Norwich have to win this game for us to have a chance. If we then beat Derby we will be 3 points behind them and they will still have one game in hand.
Portsmouth V Ipswich - This is their game in hand. We would have to hope to hell the skates turn up and fight for their lives knowing there are in serious relegation mire. I still cannot see the skates winning but let us assume they get a creditable draw. Ipswich will now be 4 points ahead of us. Equal games. Ipswich are now on 73 points.
Ipswich v Boro - This is an interesting one also and perhaps another chance for us to make up a few points. Let us call this one as a draw also, so Ipswich now have 74 Points and we have 69. But now we have a game in hand I believe. But about our points will come later as it is very simplistic what we have to do in order to have any chance at all of finishing second*.
Charlton v Ipswich - Another not so easy game, but let us assume Ipswich will have too much for them and get the 3 points and now sit on 78.
West Brom v Ipswich - Another tough one perhaps as WBA need the points, but again I am going to say a win for Ipswich giving them now 81 points.
Southampton v Ipswich. In order for us to finish second we HAVE to win this, I am sure we all agree. So let us assume we do and Ipswich are still on 81 points.
Ipswich v QPR - A total nothing game for the R's, so 3 points here for Ipswich. Their season total is 84.
Now onto my * symbol on the Ipswich Boro game. We have to win all 6 of our remaining games to have any chance at all. Assume we do and guess what, we also have 84 points. So it would come down then to GD. At the time of writing this, Ipswich have 10 GD more than us, hard as hell to make that up.
In summary, I do not think we can make this unless Ipswich go on a poor run and drop points in other games such as WBA or Charlton. Even if they do, we still need to win all our games.
What say all of you?
Edit. Interestingly enough, I think it is more likely Boro will get 13 points fro them last 5 on paper, so they would finish on 85. But I am discounting them from the equation as I think they have lost if and will drop silly points.
[Post edited 10 Apr 7:48]
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| Stato Jo's take on Finishing 2nd. on 08:47 - Apr 10 with 1870 views | Butty101 |
You were doing well all the way up to Pompey v Ipswich! We play Blackburn the same night |  |
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| Stato Jo's take on Finishing 2nd. on 08:56 - Apr 10 with 1865 views | SaintPaulVW |
Thanks for the analysis. Really interesting post.
With IT having to drop points for us to catch up, the goal difference should narrow if we are going to end on the same points. If we win 2 games by 2-0 and they lose two games by 2-0 then we gain 8gd just through those games alone. As we have seen we can often win games by a greater margin than 2 goals.
Given the top 8's form over last 5 or 10 games, in my head if we win all our last 6 games then we have a possible shot at second place, anything less and we will probably be in the playoffs.
The perfect mustn't be the enemy of the good tho. Not finishing second but finishing in the play offs is still a fantastic performance given where we were in November.
Fingers and everything crossed. |  | | |
| Stato Jo's take on Finishing 2nd. on 14:49 - Apr 10 with 1636 views | Southamptonfan |
It seems like we are asking for so many things to happen in order to get 2nd, which makes it seem very unlikely.
But:
Is it realistic and very possible that Ipswich lose to Norwich, away from home.in a derby? - YES.
Is it realistic that Ipswich lose or draw away at Fratton, Pompey desperate for the points, fighting for their lives? - YES
Is it realistic that Ipswich draw or lose to Boro? - YES
Is it realistic that Ipswich lose to us at St Mary's? - YES
Do teams in history lose their nerve when they have it all to lose and it's easier / less pressure to chase? - YES
Saints have to win all.their games, but we are on it. I think we could do it. But we shall see. An Ipswich win tommorow and / or we don't win, play offs it will be but we shall see! [Post edited 10 Apr 14:51]
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| Stato Jo's take on Finishing 2nd. on 16:33 - Apr 10 with 1557 views | DorsetIan |
I think this is one of those where we just have to keep winning every game and then see how many points Ipswich drop.
If we win and they lose tomorrow, then assuming we keep winning, they would only have to drop 4 more points.
If we keep winning, Ipswich will drop one more point, so this then should go to the final day! |  |
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| Stato Jo's take on Finishing 2nd. on 18:12 - Apr 10 with 1513 views | shotters |
We also need to bear in mind that even if we win all of our games we still have to hope both Boro and Millwall drop points too
Whilst it's possible I think it's unlikely we'll win the rest of our games this season, happy to be proven wrong but playing Saturday and Tuesday for the next month and a cup semi final to deal with as well will push our squad to its limits
Right now i'm just hoping we can consolidate 6th place and take it from there |  |
| Fail we may, sail we must |
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| Stato Jo's take on Finishing 2nd. on 18:15 - Apr 10 with 1506 views | saintjeff52 |
| Stato Jo's take on Finishing 2nd. on 08:56 - Apr 10 by SaintPaulVW |
Thanks for the analysis. Really interesting post.
With IT having to drop points for us to catch up, the goal difference should narrow if we are going to end on the same points. If we win 2 games by 2-0 and they lose two games by 2-0 then we gain 8gd just through those games alone. As we have seen we can often win games by a greater margin than 2 goals.
Given the top 8's form over last 5 or 10 games, in my head if we win all our last 6 games then we have a possible shot at second place, anything less and we will probably be in the playoffs.
The perfect mustn't be the enemy of the good tho. Not finishing second but finishing in the play offs is still a fantastic performance given where we were in November.
Fingers and everything crossed. |
I totally believe we WILL get to 84pts by winning all of our final fixtures.
Interesting analysis of Ipswich's games. it's going to be very tight, and I'm not sure that they will make 84pts. I calculated they'd get 83pts, but that was more in hope than reality.
I've said for some time that Ipswich would finish Top 2, and they may well do so. They are the favourites at present.
Either way, our fantastic run in our final 19 games, ( currently 10 wins and 3 draws in 13 games ), will give us all the momentum needed to win the playoffs. In any event, I wouldn't fancy playing Ipswich in the play offs, but would be confident playing the others.
Our penultimate game v Ipswich on 28th April will resolve one way or another our chances of finishing 2nd, or we'll know exactly what we have to do v Preston in our final game.
Tonda has everyone believing again, and as Cyle said "We're getting better every game"
What a fantastic couple of weeks to look forward to, and of course not forgetting that we'll be in The FA Cup Final on 16th May, after beating City in the Semi Finals  |  | | |
| Stato Jo's take on Finishing 2nd. on 19:51 - Apr 10 with 1446 views | HytheFerrytales |
If you subscribe to the old adage that Bookies are rarely far off the mark..............
Top 2 Finish...Ipswich 4/9...M'boro 7/2....Millwall 10/1...Saints 18/1 ( most popular bet today with the big books and is therefore set to shorten )
Just for fun...Skates to go down 4/5. | | | |
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