| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish 20:59 - Aug 5 with 8319 views | Tonytone |
Anyone else having a flutter? I got 5-1 for a top 8 finish at Paddy Power. This table ranks all the teams with the shortest odds at the top so is how the bookies think the league will look at the end of the season and have us at 19th place
https://www.oddschecker.com/fo
[Post edited 5 Aug 21:00]
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 13:54 - Aug 6 with 1949 views | Match82 |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 10:33 - Aug 6 by KensalT |
Sorry Numpty but I disagree.
xG is a nonsense, but worse than that it's draining the joy from the game.
If league tables were based on xG then Hull and Sunderland would have been relegated last season. Instead one got promoted and the other qualified for Europe.
There's nothing particularly sophisticated about xG, it's just a crude probability of a shot being scored based on things like position of the shot taker, is the attempt with the foot or the head, etc.
https://dataglossary.wyscout.c
The xG for a penalty kick is 0.76
If it's me taking the penalty and Donnarumma in goal the xG is 0.76.
If it's Nicholas Madsen taking the penalty and Dopey from the Seven Dwarfs in goal the xG is still 0.76.
That's why xG is a nonsense. It makes no allowance for the quality of the individuals involved or how committed a defending team might be to trying to block a shot from open play.
To explain why xG is sucking the joy out of the game I will quote what Clive had to say about Daniel Bennie's screamer in the 3-1 win at Hull back in February:
https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/
"The Australian’s spectacular first league goal for Queens Park Rangers was, first and foremost, the decisive moment in this 3-1 away win at Hull City. A much-needed victory if you’re still holding onto play-off hopes for the Rangers this season after the draining home losses to Wrexham and Blackburn. But the manner of it, the style of it, the distance on it and the reason he took it on in the first place was not only manna for the 700+ faithful behind the goal at the far end who have endured 11 away games with just one victory going back into October, but everybody who is subjected to the tedium of modern football.
If you want to quickly farm yourself some social media engagement, stick a Match of the Day Goal of the Month montage on from 15-20 years ago. Sit back and watch the clicks roll in as the Lightning Seeds play Life of Riley and Paul Scholes volleys in off the underside of the Villa Park crossbar from 35 yards, or Michael Essien walks onto a right footer from somewhere out in the Stamford Bridge car park, Dennis Bergkamp nutmegs two defenders and chips the goalkeeper or Matt Le Tissier humiliates some poor sod into the top corner. Smile at the empty sky and wait for the moment a million chances may all collide - often all in the same month. Des’ moustache would twitch knowingly as he tells you there’s “one or two to pick from” before offering you some Premium Bonds if you match 1, 2 and 3 with Alan Hansen.
You don’t see goals like that any more because football has become an over-coached, robotic snoozefest. Coaching staffs and back offices are packed with data scientists, economics graduates and mathematicians. Dugouts populated by mechanical bores like Thomas Frank. And they say that, actually, Paul Scholes’ volley only had an xG of 0.013 and had he played another pass or two and had somebody taken a shot from five yards out instead he’d have had an xG of 0.28 and why don’t you just shoot me in the head with a massive sawn off? Data says corners, data says long throws, data says “penalty area penetration” and we sit there bored out of our minds remembering when we used to come here for a good time while the television companies flash up a graphic telling you how many “touches in the opposition box” each side has had. Data does not say shoot from 30 yards, and so no f*cker does – it’s actively, aggressively coached out of them. These people think that Trevor Sinclair goal was a bad thing."
* PS - I had to edit Clive's original text because of language inappropriate for this forum  |
Genuinely curious about the answer to this question because I can see it going both ways.
Would you rather QPR played "old school" - entertaining, shots outside the box etc, all the stuff you list and finished 12th. Or would you rather they played in a competent but boring way and finished 8th, sneaking into the playoffs? |  | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 13:54 - Aug 6 with 1949 views | numptydumpty |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 10:33 - Aug 6 by KensalT |
Sorry Numpty but I disagree.
xG is a nonsense, but worse than that it's draining the joy from the game.
If league tables were based on xG then Hull and Sunderland would have been relegated last season. Instead one got promoted and the other qualified for Europe.
There's nothing particularly sophisticated about xG, it's just a crude probability of a shot being scored based on things like position of the shot taker, is the attempt with the foot or the head, etc.
https://dataglossary.wyscout.c
The xG for a penalty kick is 0.76
If it's me taking the penalty and Donnarumma in goal the xG is 0.76.
If it's Nicholas Madsen taking the penalty and Dopey from the Seven Dwarfs in goal the xG is still 0.76.
That's why xG is a nonsense. It makes no allowance for the quality of the individuals involved or how committed a defending team might be to trying to block a shot from open play.
To explain why xG is sucking the joy out of the game I will quote what Clive had to say about Daniel Bennie's screamer in the 3-1 win at Hull back in February:
https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/
"The Australian’s spectacular first league goal for Queens Park Rangers was, first and foremost, the decisive moment in this 3-1 away win at Hull City. A much-needed victory if you’re still holding onto play-off hopes for the Rangers this season after the draining home losses to Wrexham and Blackburn. But the manner of it, the style of it, the distance on it and the reason he took it on in the first place was not only manna for the 700+ faithful behind the goal at the far end who have endured 11 away games with just one victory going back into October, but everybody who is subjected to the tedium of modern football.
If you want to quickly farm yourself some social media engagement, stick a Match of the Day Goal of the Month montage on from 15-20 years ago. Sit back and watch the clicks roll in as the Lightning Seeds play Life of Riley and Paul Scholes volleys in off the underside of the Villa Park crossbar from 35 yards, or Michael Essien walks onto a right footer from somewhere out in the Stamford Bridge car park, Dennis Bergkamp nutmegs two defenders and chips the goalkeeper or Matt Le Tissier humiliates some poor sod into the top corner. Smile at the empty sky and wait for the moment a million chances may all collide - often all in the same month. Des’ moustache would twitch knowingly as he tells you there’s “one or two to pick from” before offering you some Premium Bonds if you match 1, 2 and 3 with Alan Hansen.
You don’t see goals like that any more because football has become an over-coached, robotic snoozefest. Coaching staffs and back offices are packed with data scientists, economics graduates and mathematicians. Dugouts populated by mechanical bores like Thomas Frank. And they say that, actually, Paul Scholes’ volley only had an xG of 0.013 and had he played another pass or two and had somebody taken a shot from five yards out instead he’d have had an xG of 0.28 and why don’t you just shoot me in the head with a massive sawn off? Data says corners, data says long throws, data says “penalty area penetration” and we sit there bored out of our minds remembering when we used to come here for a good time while the television companies flash up a graphic telling you how many “touches in the opposition box” each side has had. Data does not say shoot from 30 yards, and so no f*cker does – it’s actively, aggressively coached out of them. These people think that Trevor Sinclair goal was a bad thing."
* PS - I had to edit Clive's original text because of language inappropriate for this forum |
Tbf stats takes into account all variables, including the form, talent and calibre of all involved, as well. Hence why this side of the game, especially in recruitment is looked at carefully by all top level football clubs from around the globe.
To be saying that something is nonsense or bs, whilst then knowing that all clubs at the highest professional levels use this data thoroughly - well that suggests random football fans such as ourselves know more than top level football people, who have decades of professional experience.
And obviously its only one element taken into account - overall gut feelings has a part to play alongside the data. Far from just our Mr Nourry that looks at these figures. It is used on a widespread basis. All clubs will maybe, apart from the Dog and Duck locals who are selected in direct variation with the xG of the pints of Guinness they consumed the evening prior !!
And you are picking out moments from years ago .Very rose tinted glasses.There will always be outstanding goals in any era and also snoozefests in any era also. I watched a great deal of the World Cup and in terms of quality moments, there were some outstanding moments and many of them.
Its a more technical, cultured game now. Bone breaking challenges that happened in the 70s and 80s rarely happen now, but if can remember most games you passed it back to the goalkeeper. This could happen three or four times consecutively, then he lumps it upfield, one of the big two up front, flicks it on and then the other front man blasts it over from 35 yards out.
There are merits and faults in both but to say it was a higher calibre of game back then. Mostly, I would suggest it simply wasnt.
Thats just my opinion though. No probs.
And you saying no bugger shoots from 35 yards out. We have had Esquedinha, our very own cultured Brazilian youth doing just this, not exactly brimmed full of quality.
I say its a help for teams, but wont be the only help or way of approaching training and games.
[Post edited 6 Aug 14:14]
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 15:01 - Aug 6 with 1828 views | KensalT |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 13:54 - Aug 6 by Match82 |
Genuinely curious about the answer to this question because I can see it going both ways.
Would you rather QPR played "old school" - entertaining, shots outside the box etc, all the stuff you list and finished 12th. Or would you rather they played in a competent but boring way and finished 8th, sneaking into the playoffs? |
Because we've been starved of success I would probably swallow my principles and take a boring 8th.
I know quite a few Arsenal fans. They're obviously delighted to be champions but the Set Piece FC tag really grates with some of them.
If every team tried to play that way the game would die on its feet. |  | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 15:09 - Aug 6 with 1808 views | KensalT |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 13:54 - Aug 6 by numptydumpty |
Tbf stats takes into account all variables, including the form, talent and calibre of all involved, as well. Hence why this side of the game, especially in recruitment is looked at carefully by all top level football clubs from around the globe.
To be saying that something is nonsense or bs, whilst then knowing that all clubs at the highest professional levels use this data thoroughly - well that suggests random football fans such as ourselves know more than top level football people, who have decades of professional experience.
And obviously its only one element taken into account - overall gut feelings has a part to play alongside the data. Far from just our Mr Nourry that looks at these figures. It is used on a widespread basis. All clubs will maybe, apart from the Dog and Duck locals who are selected in direct variation with the xG of the pints of Guinness they consumed the evening prior !!
And you are picking out moments from years ago .Very rose tinted glasses.There will always be outstanding goals in any era and also snoozefests in any era also. I watched a great deal of the World Cup and in terms of quality moments, there were some outstanding moments and many of them.
Its a more technical, cultured game now. Bone breaking challenges that happened in the 70s and 80s rarely happen now, but if can remember most games you passed it back to the goalkeeper. This could happen three or four times consecutively, then he lumps it upfield, one of the big two up front, flicks it on and then the other front man blasts it over from 35 yards out.
There are merits and faults in both but to say it was a higher calibre of game back then. Mostly, I would suggest it simply wasnt.
Thats just my opinion though. No probs.
And you saying no bugger shoots from 35 yards out. We have had Esquedinha, our very own cultured Brazilian youth doing just this, not exactly brimmed full of quality.
I say its a help for teams, but wont be the only help or way of approaching training and games.
[Post edited 6 Aug 14:14]
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You've gone off on a few tangents there Numpty.
I didn't say I was against data. Far from it. But for me data should be used to help the professionals do their job better. It's a mistake when the data pros start thinking they know better than the experts.
It will be interesting to see how Brighton go now that they are cutting back on their scouting and trusting their data models more for recruitment. I think that's going about things arse-backwards but they've had a lot of success in recent years so maybe they will prove me wrong.
I've explained why I don't like xG and don't need to go over it again. Let's just agree to disagree on that one.
Between us we've wandered a bit from the original theme of this thread. Shall we let the punters have their betting thread back!? | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 15:22 - Aug 6 with 1759 views | kensalriser |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 13:54 - Aug 6 by Match82 |
Genuinely curious about the answer to this question because I can see it going both ways.
Would you rather QPR played "old school" - entertaining, shots outside the box etc, all the stuff you list and finished 12th. Or would you rather they played in a competent but boring way and finished 8th, sneaking into the playoffs? |
Classic false dichotomy. |  |
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 15:33 - Aug 6 with 1730 views | Match82 |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 15:22 - Aug 6 by kensalriser |
Classic false dichotomy. |
Disagree. It's a response to a post lamenting the fact that too many clubs are prioritizing practicality over style (or football people want to watch). It seems the majority of the footballing world would disagree with you that you can have your cake and eat it too. | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 15:59 - Aug 6 with 1669 views | kensalriser |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 15:33 - Aug 6 by Match82 |
Disagree. It's a response to a post lamenting the fact that too many clubs are prioritizing practicality over style (or football people want to watch). It seems the majority of the footballing world would disagree with you that you can have your cake and eat it too. |
Of course it is. They're easy enough to make up:
Would you prefer to finish 12th playing park the bus football badly, or 8th playing scintillating, free-flowing expressive football?
Obviously most of us want to finish higher, just as most of us would prefer to win a scrappy 1-0 than lose an entertaining 3-4. But in the real world it's never a binary choice. [Post edited 6 Aug 16:02]
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 16:15 - Aug 6 with 1629 views | robith |
During the world cup me and some pals built an AI football betting agent that proved very profitable. I asked it to price our season and give me the fair price (ie direct conversion of the probability):
Market Fair price
Win the league 250/1
Top 2 (automatic) 100/1
Promoted, any route 36/1
Top 6 finish 15/1
Top 8 (play-off place) 15/2
Relegated 6/1
Finish bottom 24/1
Enjoyed this too:
Bottom at 20/1 isn't the value the tipsters think. Offered 21.0 against my fair 24.6 is roughly −15% EV. The bear case rests on Stephan's side ending last season in dreadful form and Amit Bhatia selling his stake, but Bolton, Cardiff, Charlton and Lincoln all sit meaningfully below QPR on the ladder [Post edited 6 Aug 16:20]
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 16:21 - Aug 6 with 1611 views | QPROslo |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 13:15 - Aug 6 by TheChef |
Great stuff.
This why I still enjoy watching The Big Match Revisited where you'll actually see players trying shots from outside the box, wingers running with the ball and attempting crosses, rather than turning back inside and recycling the ball (YAWN).
But now everything is so data led and probability percentages are drummed into players so they barely try doing anything too off the cuff. Real shame. |
Did you not watch that England - France Bronze final game, 6-4. It can be done. | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 16:26 - Aug 6 with 1594 views | KensalT |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 15:59 - Aug 6 by kensalriser |
Of course it is. They're easy enough to make up:
Would you prefer to finish 12th playing park the bus football badly, or 8th playing scintillating, free-flowing expressive football?
Obviously most of us want to finish higher, just as most of us would prefer to win a scrappy 1-0 than lose an entertaining 3-4. But in the real world it's never a binary choice. [Post edited 6 Aug 16:02]
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I don't think the debate is a straight choice between parking the bus or playing like 1970 Brazil.
The problem with data analysis in sport is that it seems to work best in stop-start sports like cricket and baseball.
Football is supposed to flow continuously but the modern game seems to go against that. Not just endless time-wasting but reducing the game to stop-start scenarios where the data analysts can earn their keep.
The game isn't supposed to be about endless set-pieces but it's in danger of sliding in that direction.
Here's some timely data about the last PL season:
- 27.4% of all goals from set-pieces (not including penalties)
- Arsenal averaging a goal every other game from a corner.
- Bruno Fernandes 11 assists from set-pieces
When teams start playing for set-pieces, which Arsenal were accused of last season, then I would suggest it's going in the wrong direction
[Post edited 6 Aug 16:47]
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 16:46 - Aug 6 with 1538 views | Pikey |
Better odds is 16/1 with ladbrokes to get promoted. Finish 8th and win the play offs ...simples
Had a tenner on that and my ysual 10ew on winning it at 66s. | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 18:59 - Aug 6 with 1415 views | numptydumpty |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 16:15 - Aug 6 by robith |
During the world cup me and some pals built an AI football betting agent that proved very profitable. I asked it to price our season and give me the fair price (ie direct conversion of the probability):
Market Fair price
Win the league 250/1
Top 2 (automatic) 100/1
Promoted, any route 36/1
Top 6 finish 15/1
Top 8 (play-off place) 15/2
Relegated 6/1
Finish bottom 24/1
Enjoyed this too:
Bottom at 20/1 isn't the value the tipsters think. Offered 21.0 against my fair 24.6 is roughly −15% EV. The bear case rests on Stephan's side ending last season in dreadful form and Amit Bhatia selling his stake, but Bolton, Cardiff, Charlton and Lincoln all sit meaningfully below QPR on the ladder [Post edited 6 Aug 16:20]
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Yes understand all those expected value odds as against what the bookies offer and clearly obviously all outcomes bookies offer less.
However you have not listed the best bet for a QPR fan to have an educated gamble on.
Odds to finish16th - 1 / 3 (3 to 1 on)
There goes my life savings or maybe not. [Post edited 6 Aug 19:03]
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 19:02 - Aug 6 with 1408 views | kensalriser |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 16:15 - Aug 6 by robith |
During the world cup me and some pals built an AI football betting agent that proved very profitable. I asked it to price our season and give me the fair price (ie direct conversion of the probability):
Market Fair price
Win the league 250/1
Top 2 (automatic) 100/1
Promoted, any route 36/1
Top 6 finish 15/1
Top 8 (play-off place) 15/2
Relegated 6/1
Finish bottom 24/1
Enjoyed this too:
Bottom at 20/1 isn't the value the tipsters think. Offered 21.0 against my fair 24.6 is roughly −15% EV. The bear case rests on Stephan's side ending last season in dreadful form and Amit Bhatia selling his stake, but Bolton, Cardiff, Charlton and Lincoln all sit meaningfully below QPR on the ladder [Post edited 6 Aug 16:20]
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Curious about how Bhatia selling his stake is meaningful at all. It was small and being diluted for years as Ruben converted debt to equity. Extrapolating end of season form into a new season is pretty tenuous, too.
Have we ever finished bottom of the second tier? | |
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 19:16 - Aug 6 with 1377 views | Hunterhoop |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 16:15 - Aug 6 by robith |
During the world cup me and some pals built an AI football betting agent that proved very profitable. I asked it to price our season and give me the fair price (ie direct conversion of the probability):
Market Fair price
Win the league 250/1
Top 2 (automatic) 100/1
Promoted, any route 36/1
Top 6 finish 15/1
Top 8 (play-off place) 15/2
Relegated 6/1
Finish bottom 24/1
Enjoyed this too:
Bottom at 20/1 isn't the value the tipsters think. Offered 21.0 against my fair 24.6 is roughly −15% EV. The bear case rests on Stephan's side ending last season in dreadful form and Amit Bhatia selling his stake, but Bolton, Cardiff, Charlton and Lincoln all sit meaningfully below QPR on the ladder [Post edited 6 Aug 16:20]
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Rob, did you ask your agent to price in a bookie’s overround? For comparison’s sake I’d suggest prices need to have the bookies’ gross profit margin built in as that is the price of being able to place a bet. A conservative 20% is probably fair, although I suspect football outrights in the industry are working of more like 30%-40%. Nevertheless 20% might help point to where the true value is or where the true outlier is. |  | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 05:29 - Aug 7 with 1167 views | kernowhoop |
Does anyone here take any notice of xG? Anyone? | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 08:24 - Aug 7 with 1060 views | wokingpaul |
Paddy Power has Rangers to be top London club at 80/1 (above West Ham, Millwall, Charlton and Watford) but bizarrely 66/1 to win the league. Neither likely to happen of course but clearly makes more sense to bet on being the highest in London and that’s where my tenner has gone! | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 10:40 - Aug 7 with 973 views | Myke |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 13:54 - Aug 6 by Match82 |
Genuinely curious about the answer to this question because I can see it going both ways.
Would you rather QPR played "old school" - entertaining, shots outside the box etc, all the stuff you list and finished 12th. Or would you rather they played in a competent but boring way and finished 8th, sneaking into the playoffs? |
For me you wouldn't have to sacrafice one for rhe other. Because 'old school' played properly would guarentee us a top 8 finish. Do you think Bill Shankley, Bob Paisley, lAlex Ferguson et al were concernef about xG ? There only concern was to be better than their opponents - and they frequently were. | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 11:02 - Aug 7 with 941 views | robith |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 19:16 - Aug 6 by Hunterhoop |
Rob, did you ask your agent to price in a bookie’s overround? For comparison’s sake I’d suggest prices need to have the bookies’ gross profit margin built in as that is the price of being able to place a bet. A conservative 20% is probably fair, although I suspect football outrights in the industry are working of more like 30%-40%. Nevertheless 20% might help point to where the true value is or where the true outlier is. |
No I was looking at what the actually price should be to show how bad football pricing is. Betting on football is a mug's game | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 11:08 - Aug 7 with 930 views | robith |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 05:29 - Aug 7 by kernowhoop |
Does anyone here take any notice of xG? Anyone? |
like any data point, it's meaningless unless you're using it to interpret something. For eg elite players pretty much always outperform their xG. But for others for betting, fpl or analysis takes it can be useful. for eg Gibbs-White at Forest massively outperformed his xG last season playing as a 10 vs as an 8 the season before, so is he still a good FPL pick now they'll be playing 2 strikers?
It's irrelevant on its own, but can be interesting when contrasted with the outcome | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 11:10 - Aug 7 with 923 views | robith |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 19:02 - Aug 6 by kensalriser |
Curious about how Bhatia selling his stake is meaningful at all. It was small and being diluted for years as Ruben converted debt to equity. Extrapolating end of season form into a new season is pretty tenuous, too.
Have we ever finished bottom of the second tier? |
I think you've missed a sentence there. It's saying that a lot of tipsters have put that up, but the case they've used doesn't stack up | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 11:11 - Aug 7 with 918 views | robith |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 18:59 - Aug 6 by numptydumpty |
Yes understand all those expected value odds as against what the bookies offer and clearly obviously all outcomes bookies offer less.
However you have not listed the best bet for a QPR fan to have an educated gamble on.
Odds to finish16th - 1 / 3 (3 to 1 on)
There goes my life savings or maybe not. [Post edited 6 Aug 19:03]
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the educated bettor should be avoiding betting on us at all | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 12:47 - Aug 7 with 838 views | 7374Ranger |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 22:56 - Aug 5 by Myke |
With respect, Xg is a load of bollox or to put it more politely is, like all stats, ‘massageable’ to ‘prove’ anything. Here’s another stat - we drew 0-0 with Oxford (twice), Charlton and SW. Win those 4 games and we go level with Hull which is now in the Prem. Whoever else was at fault for nil nillers, it sure ain’t whoever was in goals. My point being that over the course of a season there will be numerous opportunities to gain or lose points and it won’t all be down to how many saves our new blue-eyed keeper makes.
On topic, I won’t be parting with any of my hard-earned cash until I see our ‘can’t be arsed’ attitude consigned to the bin. |
You can add tossing away 3 points at home to Wrexham to the tally.
It’s usually a very open division apart from maybe the top 3 or 4, so the bookies are not being generous.
I would rather wait for at least 6-8 games before placing a bet, given how open it is and the odds change. Although it getting off to a good start, those odds will likely be even shorter. | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 15:46 - Aug 7 with 759 views | Pikey |
I think 9/2 and 5/1 are pretty goods odds in a 24 horse race to get a top 8 placing without having to lay out any win money.
At 66/1 to win the league at 1/4 the odds 1st 3 if we finish 3rd ypu only get about 8/1 your money so another 5 places for 3 betting points surrendered is prerty goid odds in bookie terms. | | | |
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