| 60 Points 11:03 - Feb 9 with 13323 views | Myke |
Just thrown an eye over our remaining fixtures (slow morning, students doing a test and it's a bit nippy outside) and reckon we can pick up another 27 points. So sixty would be a decent return and should see us nudging into the top half. |  | | |  |
| 60 Points on 20:04 - Feb 9 with 1900 views | daveB |
| 60 Points on 18:50 - Feb 9 by Myke |
Rotherham 0
Brentford 0
Bournemouth1
Preston 0
Birminghham 3
Barnsley 3
Bristol C 0
Wycombe 3
Huddersfield 3
Milwall 3
Reading 0
Coventry 3
N. Forest 0
S W 3
Midboro 1
Swansea 0
Norwich 1
Stoke 0
Luton 3
27 points including 1 from the first 12 - hardly overly optimistic. Of course this can go any which way, but there are a lot of winnable home games in there, Huddersfield, Luton, Coventry, SW, Milwall & Wycombe and while we could easily do a 'Derby' on at least half of them, I'd be disappointed if we can't get nearer to 60 than 50 |
I don't know why but I think we'll beat Brentford next week |  | | |
| 60 Points on 20:50 - Feb 9 with 1846 views | Match82 |
| 60 Points on 18:46 - Feb 9 by E15Hoop |
Deffo agree that 54 points is unlikely to be enough to stay up this season, unless both Sheffield Wednesday and Birmingham completely disintegrate. |
Just can't see it. Right now 8 teams (I.e. everyone below us) are tracking to less than 55 points, so six of those would need to up their average in some cases signifcantly. And that's without anyone above suffering a drop in form.
It's crazy tight at the moment, and someone will go on a run, but I just can't see that many teams doing so.
Also weird to think that we are closer to Preston in 11th ( based on live table) than the relegation places. |  | | |
| 60 Points on 21:10 - Feb 9 with 1817 views | EalingHoop81 |
| 60 Points on 20:50 - Feb 9 by Match82 |
Just can't see it. Right now 8 teams (I.e. everyone below us) are tracking to less than 55 points, so six of those would need to up their average in some cases signifcantly. And that's without anyone above suffering a drop in form.
It's crazy tight at the moment, and someone will go on a run, but I just can't see that many teams doing so.
Also weird to think that we are closer to Preston in 11th ( based on live table) than the relegation places. |
May also be worth factoring in that only 8 sides have lost fewer games than us this year. If we were to pick up a point per game, when we are averaging 1.2 currently, we would get to 52 points. I don’t see why, given our improvement recently and lack of ‘luck’ in front of goal earlier in the season why we are suddenly going to implode now.
Had we scored instead of hitting the post and instead of scoring theirs hit the post against Reading and perhaps scored more than one of the nine hundred chances we made against Bristol City we would likely be discussing the play offs (we’d be 6 points off - the same amount that we were off in March when we went into lockdown).
Of course we could still go down but the omens we good and I would expect improvement from Adomah (fitness), Willock (fitness) and Chair (responsibility in the team to create) in the second half of the season and so too the strikers (other than Austin) who are still learning in this league and with our team. | | | |
| 60 Points on 21:15 - Feb 9 with 1800 views | Dorse |
| 60 Points on 20:04 - Feb 9 by daveB |
I don't know why but I think we'll beat Brentford next week |
I don't know why you think that either. Have you been drinking to excess? I know I have. |  |
| 'What do we want? We don't know! When do we want it? Now!' |
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| 60 Points on 10:13 - Feb 10 with 1683 views | francisbowles |
| 60 Points on 15:00 - Feb 9 by Northernr |
Use the Championship form table on Transfer Markt. Set the parameters as round one to round 28 and pick the season. Last year Birmingham finished with 50 and Barnsley 49, at this point they had 34 and 24 and were 18th and 23rd.
https://www.transfermarkt.co.u |
Thanks Clive, I'll give that a try. | | | |
| 60 Points on 11:21 - Feb 10 with 1622 views | Spaghetti_Hoops |
Infogol (xGF, xGA etc) forecast us finishing 13th. Basically not so good at scoring but much tighter defence than last year.
Over the last ten seasons the average requirement to stay up was 45 points taking goal difference out of the equation. So hopefully only 9 points to get after Saturday. Unless you are one of those doom haunted pessimists?
This forum always reminds me of Hull's jibe at us - Drama Queens Park Rangers. Cruelly accurate. | | | |
| 60 Points on 12:39 - Feb 10 with 1551 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
A sad reflection of the club is that it's become just about survival in this league and nothing above.
Now someone is going to make an excuse list of all the things we lack. |  |
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| 60 Points on 12:50 - Feb 10 with 1554 views | Myke |
| 60 Points on 12:41 - Feb 9 by Northernr |
I'd be amazed if we got to 60. Still very firmly in the get to 52 points, find three worse teams, get the hell out of here camp.
We're feeling good, four wins from five, playing well, optimism. I think this season more than most has probably shown it's good not to get too carried away in either direction. We've had a thread wishing that Warburton stays for ten years, and another screeching FOR THE LOVE OF GOD JUST GO NOW, within a couple of weeks of each other.
Is Charlie really going to be able to do every game between now and the end? And what happens if/when he can't? What would happen were Dieng, Dickie, or even Barbet to get injured? We've lost Amos and Carrol long term and Kakay and Wallace medium term but we have done incredibly well with injuries this year - those four and one isolation period for Dykes. We've played teams, Blackburn and Stoke among them, reporting nine, ten, 11 injuries to first teamers. Multiple games have been called off for Covid tests and we've had one minor period of isolation for one player. Hats off to the sports science guys, and Warburton's squad management in this regard which we often criticise when we don't like his subs, but we'd be lucky if it continues all the way through and it's not a strong squad.
Watch, also, what happens next week if this run doesn't continue. We could very easily lose at Rotherham. They're a competitive team, they're in good form, they walloped the same Derby team we lost to. Yes they lost at Loftus Road, but only just, they could easily have had a penalty that night, they missed some great late chances, and the key to our victory was Bright, who's no longer here, v Mattock, who was just coming back off an injury. The conditions are not going to be conducive to good football so we're going to have to take on a physical, direct team on their patch in conditions that mean we can't play PLan A. Lose that, you will immediately, at about five past five, see some people on here you haven't seen for a few weeks. There will be at least twice the number of threads and posts there were post Blackburn.
And then it begins all over again doesn't it. Start the fans please. Brentford at home midweek, incredibly difficult game, unlikely to win that. Bournemouth at home, just in time for the new manager syndrome. Preston away, again, very difficult. Suddenly we're potentially on one point, or no points, from 12. Bottom three is only five points away as it is and in this hypothetical we've already allowed Rotherham a three point gain on that. Suddenly we're heading up to Birmingham with them third bottom, us fourth bottom, a point in it, and this message board will be absolutely on fire. Sky falling, kids screaming, women and children into lifeboats, Warburton the worst manager that ever lived must be sacked immediately, and the idea that we'd even amass sixty points if you let us play for another three years will be laughed at as the hopeless optimism of a happy clapper, willing to tolerate the demise of the club.
It's never as good, nor as bad, as it feels. ATM it feels good.
This post has been edited by an administrator |
My estimate is indeed based on the premise that we may only get one point from the next 12. Four very difficult games for different reasons, although our performance (2nd half) v Preston last season and our overall good away form makes me a tad more optimistic, which I why I gave us a point there. After that it gets easier, with a run of winnable home games, so that even if we are in the mire when we face Brum, a run of 4 from 5 should lift us clear.
I then see us catapulted to the heady heights of 10th or 11th, before falling away in the last few games, just as people are starting to get excited about an outside tilt at the play-offs
If nothing else, it'll be fun to see how far wrong I was at the end of the season. | | | |
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| 60 Points on 13:02 - Feb 10 with 1534 views | gazza1 |
I would strongly recommend the pessimists amongst us to have a wager on the Rangers going down....... | | | |
| 60 Points on 13:23 - Feb 10 with 1513 views | DubaiR |
I have us 9th.
Top 2 - Norwich and Brentford
Play Offs- Watford, Swansea, Bournemouth, Blackburn
Relegated - Rotherham, Birmingham, Wycombe |  | | |
| 60 Points on 13:37 - Feb 10 with 1496 views | CamberleyR |
| 60 Points on 10:13 - Feb 10 by francisbowles |
Thanks Clive, I'll give that a try. |
Another resource is https://www.11v11.com/league-t
You can pick any date in any year and show the full league table at that point. Just need to remember that pre 2004-05 you will need to select League Division 1 as the 'competition' drop down. |  |
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| 60 Points on 14:06 - Feb 10 with 1470 views | francisbowles |
| 60 Points on 13:37 - Feb 10 by CamberleyR |
Another resource is https://www.11v11.com/league-t
You can pick any date in any year and show the full league table at that point. Just need to remember that pre 2004-05 you will need to select League Division 1 as the 'competition' drop down. |
Thanks Camberley. I've just had a quick look but I can't find a way to put in match 27 or 28 etc. Seems like you need the actual date.
Thanks for the tip about the competition name change, I had forgotten that and wondered why transfer market only went back to 2004/5. | | | |
| 60 Points on 14:16 - Feb 10 with 1462 views | Dorse |
| 60 Points on 12:39 - Feb 10 by 2Thomas2Bowles |
A sad reflection of the club is that it's become just about survival in this league and nothing above.
Now someone is going to make an excuse list of all the things we lack. |
1. A hovercraft
2. Tickets to the Ann Widdecombe Experience
3. Mrs Brown's Boys box set
4. Japanese invisible fighting fish
5. Corduroy slacks
6. A telescope that always points directly at JK Rowling
7. Electric potato peeling equipment
8. A towering sense of entitlement
9. That 'new car' smell | |
| 'What do we want? We don't know! When do we want it? Now!' |
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| 60 Points on 14:32 - Feb 10 with 1441 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| 60 Points on 14:16 - Feb 10 by Dorse |
1. A hovercraft
2. Tickets to the Ann Widdecombe Experience
3. Mrs Brown's Boys box set
4. Japanese invisible fighting fish
5. Corduroy slacks
6. A telescope that always points directly at JK Rowling
7. Electric potato peeling equipment
8. A towering sense of entitlement
9. That 'new car' smell |
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| 60 Points on 14:35 - Feb 10 with 1438 views | CamberleyR |
I've looked at the last 10 'normal' seasons up to 2018-19 i.e those with crowds in the grounds and in three of those seasons, the teams that were in the bottom three after 28 games or at this point in February were relegated (2016-17, 2014-15, 2010-11).
In the other seven seasons, two of the teams in the bottom three after circa 28 games were relegated. In those seven seasons, the other teams that went down that weren't in the bottom three at this stage of the season were:
2018-19 Rotherham (21st after 28 games)
2017-18 Barnsley (19th)
2015-16 MK Dons (20th)
2013-14 Doncaster (20th)
2012-13 Wolves ((18th)
2011-12 Portsmouth (17th)
2009-10 Sheffield W (19th)
Obviously only a rough guide as not having crowds will bring a lot more variable results. | |
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| 60 Points on 14:49 - Feb 10 with 1420 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| 60 Points on 14:35 - Feb 10 by CamberleyR |
I've looked at the last 10 'normal' seasons up to 2018-19 i.e those with crowds in the grounds and in three of those seasons, the teams that were in the bottom three after 28 games or at this point in February were relegated (2016-17, 2014-15, 2010-11).
In the other seven seasons, two of the teams in the bottom three after circa 28 games were relegated. In those seven seasons, the other teams that went down that weren't in the bottom three at this stage of the season were:
2018-19 Rotherham (21st after 28 games)
2017-18 Barnsley (19th)
2015-16 MK Dons (20th)
2013-14 Doncaster (20th)
2012-13 Wolves ((18th)
2011-12 Portsmouth (17th)
2009-10 Sheffield W (19th)
Obviously only a rough guide as not having crowds will bring a lot more variable results. |
Good work, Camberley. | |
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| 60 Points on 14:59 - Feb 10 with 1404 views | nix |
| 60 Points on 14:35 - Feb 10 by CamberleyR |
I've looked at the last 10 'normal' seasons up to 2018-19 i.e those with crowds in the grounds and in three of those seasons, the teams that were in the bottom three after 28 games or at this point in February were relegated (2016-17, 2014-15, 2010-11).
In the other seven seasons, two of the teams in the bottom three after circa 28 games were relegated. In those seven seasons, the other teams that went down that weren't in the bottom three at this stage of the season were:
2018-19 Rotherham (21st after 28 games)
2017-18 Barnsley (19th)
2015-16 MK Dons (20th)
2013-14 Doncaster (20th)
2012-13 Wolves ((18th)
2011-12 Portsmouth (17th)
2009-10 Sheffield W (19th)
Obviously only a rough guide as not having crowds will bring a lot more variable results. |
Love these stats, and on the face of it, history is in our favour. One caveat though is how close the bottom teams are. So there are only six points between 15th and 22nd. Two seasons ago for comparison there were 16 points between those places after 28 games. It makes mid table much more precarious. You have to get to sixth place where there's that kind of distance (17 points between 6th and 22nd). |  | | |
| 60 Points on 15:17 - Feb 10 with 1376 views | Northernr |
| 60 Points on 14:35 - Feb 10 by CamberleyR |
I've looked at the last 10 'normal' seasons up to 2018-19 i.e those with crowds in the grounds and in three of those seasons, the teams that were in the bottom three after 28 games or at this point in February were relegated (2016-17, 2014-15, 2010-11).
In the other seven seasons, two of the teams in the bottom three after circa 28 games were relegated. In those seven seasons, the other teams that went down that weren't in the bottom three at this stage of the season were:
2018-19 Rotherham (21st after 28 games)
2017-18 Barnsley (19th)
2015-16 MK Dons (20th)
2013-14 Doncaster (20th)
2012-13 Wolves ((18th)
2011-12 Portsmouth (17th)
2009-10 Sheffield W (19th)
Obviously only a rough guide as not having crowds will bring a lot more variable results. |
We're in danger of having some good stuff on this thread. |  | | |
| 60 Points on 15:21 - Feb 10 with 1364 views | PinnerPaul |
| 60 Points on 13:02 - Feb 10 by gazza1 |
I would strongly recommend the pessimists amongst us to have a wager on the Rangers going down....... |
I've tried that line many times, but they NEVER do.
As I said above, PP reckon we have a 7% chance of going down, so if anyone think its higher than that, worth a dabble at 12/1 you would think?
Yes, yes I know that odds aren't probability, but they do reflect what most people think.
As Switchingcode said above if they WERE being over generous then the 'market' would soon let them know and the price would drop. | | | |
| 60 Points on 15:56 - Feb 10 with 1326 views | Match82 |
| 60 Points on 12:39 - Feb 10 by 2Thomas2Bowles |
A sad reflection of the club is that it's become just about survival in this league and nothing above.
Now someone is going to make an excuse list of all the things we lack. |
See I don't think I agree with this. I dont think it's about survival this year, I think it's about putting the foundations in place for a push in 1-2 years time. Yes we need to survive this year to do that , but it's part of the plan, not the whole plan | | | |
| 60 Points on 19:25 - Feb 10 with 1203 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
| 60 Points on 15:56 - Feb 10 by Match82 |
See I don't think I agree with this. I dont think it's about survival this year, I think it's about putting the foundations in place for a push in 1-2 years time. Yes we need to survive this year to do that , but it's part of the plan, not the whole plan |
That's been the same story for the last 5/6 years. | |
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| 60 Points on 19:30 - Feb 10 with 1199 views | Match82 |
| 60 Points on 19:25 - Feb 10 by 2Thomas2Bowles |
That's been the same story for the last 5/6 years. |
Yes it has. And if you look at the last 5-6 years you'll see that we've dramatically reduced our wage bill, are now bringing through players from the youth team and selling them for profit, and are still in this league. It's working. We are in a better place now as a club than we have been for a long time.
It was never a 1-2 year plan, it was a 5+ year plan, which we are in the last few years of. | | | |
| 60 Points on 19:47 - Feb 10 with 1173 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
| 60 Points on 19:30 - Feb 10 by Match82 |
Yes it has. And if you look at the last 5-6 years you'll see that we've dramatically reduced our wage bill, are now bringing through players from the youth team and selling them for profit, and are still in this league. It's working. We are in a better place now as a club than we have been for a long time.
It was never a 1-2 year plan, it was a 5+ year plan, which we are in the last few years of. |
The majority of posters on here are 60+ some of us don't lave2 years or a whole lot of years to carry on with this plan that keeps having 2 years added.
Lower half position is all there is to look forward to for years and years, if you are still around. | |
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| 60 Points on 20:12 - Feb 10 with 1131 views | Hastings_Hoops |
We’ll sneak into 6th on goal difference (with the lowest points total ever to qualify for the playoffs) and then beat Brentfart in the playoffs after they finish 3rd (with the highest points total to fall outside of the top 2)... we will go on to beat Watford in their cup final to go up.
61 points should do it. [Post edited 10 Feb 2021 20:13]
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| 60 Points on 20:36 - Feb 10 with 1095 views | Myke |
| 60 Points on 19:47 - Feb 10 by 2Thomas2Bowles |
The majority of posters on here are 60+ some of us don't lave2 years or a whole lot of years to carry on with this plan that keeps having 2 years added.
Lower half position is all there is to look forward to for years and years, if you are still around. |
I don't necessarily agree with this long-term assessment 2T2B. I can't argue that we have bee treading water for the past 3 or 4 years. But I think the very thing that has delayed the process of becoming viable and by extension, competitive at the upper end of the table, is the very thing you are in favour of - another change of manager.
It is very easy to sack a manager after a poor run of form, much harder to stick with them through bad times. It depends on the manager of course, I'm not suggesting McClaren or JFH or even Holloway, should have been kept on, as we failed to achieve any sense of identity, or even a sense of direction under their leadership and I think we can rightly pin that on poor recruitment
However, despite the hiccups along the way, there is evidence over the past 18-20 months that we are making baby steps in the right direction, that we have an identifiable style and it is indisputable that we are making progress on the development of new talent. Yes, it would be easy to use BOS and Manning, as a stick to beat that argument with, but there are many other examples -apart from Eze which had began before Warburton - like Dieng, Chair, Dickie and who knows, maybe Kakay and Niko? It is a slow process, but I do feel that by changing manager again at the end of the season really WOULD add another two years to the process. | | | |
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