| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish 20:59 - Aug 5 with 8314 views | Tonytone |
Anyone else having a flutter? I got 5-1 for a top 8 finish at Paddy Power. This table ranks all the teams with the shortest odds at the top so is how the bookies think the league will look at the end of the season and have us at 19th place
https://www.oddschecker.com/fo
[Post edited 5 Aug 21:00]
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 21:38 - Aug 5 with 6170 views | PlanetHonneywood |
Is it me, but those odds don't seem to generous. |  |
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 21:44 - Aug 5 with 6166 views | numptydumpty |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 21:38 - Aug 5 by PlanetHonneywood |
Is it me, but those odds don't seem to generous. |
I think 5 to 1 for top 8 is great odds myself.
If we only get a bounce due to our goalkeepers xG being plus eight as opposed to minus eight, that 16 goal swing in our favour from last season would have meant we could have easily got top 8 last season.
With better results around injuries and so far from outgoings and incomings along with a couple of potential new youth players having an impact, think this season we should realistically be getting in the top eight and we have our strongest pre season for some time and not even really picked up any significant injuries.
I think we maybe going under the radar a bit as far as the bookies are concerned this season.
Saying all that ask me after Millwall and Pompey results.... [Post edited 5 Aug 21:45]
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 21:54 - Aug 5 with 6123 views | 7374Ranger |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 21:38 - Aug 5 by PlanetHonneywood |
Is it me, but those odds don't seem to generous. |
No, those odds are very stingy. Not worth the money.
However I can understand the cautiousness given how many surprises there are most seasons for a top 6 place. Luton, Ipswich, Sunderland and Hull. Go back a few seasons and Huddersfield went up when favourites to get relegated.
I think there will be a suprise this season but wouldn't be backing QPR for it at those odds. I don't think the squad has enough depth and with the same performance management and medical staff, fitness issues are likely to still hamper the team. | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 22:08 - Aug 5 with 6069 views | QPR_Hibs |
I've never met a poor bookmaker...... |  |
| "Remember to listen to me but look at her. Don't get it the wrong way round. That would be hideous." |
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 22:16 - Aug 5 with 6029 views | Landshark |
So bookies have us finishing 18th. | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 22:17 - Aug 5 with 6012 views | Lblock |
5/1 for an 11 place swing is tight as oats!
Not for me. |  |
| Cherish and enjoy life.... this ain't no dress rehearsal |
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 22:25 - Aug 5 with 5989 views | Watford_Ranger |
If I was to have a bet that had to wait until May to collect it would be on the handicap where we’re +28. 18/1 or four places at 1/4 of the odds. Not great either but better than the 5/1 IMO. | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 22:42 - Aug 5 with 5923 views | derbyhoop |
I'm notca betting man but 5/1 for top 8 isn't generous. If nearly everything goes right we could get top 8. We should certainly he aiming fir it but I suspect we'll fall short. Love to be proved wrong, though. |  |
| "Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one's lifetime." (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop and now on Bluesky |
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 22:56 - Aug 5 with 5864 views | Myke |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 21:44 - Aug 5 by numptydumpty |
I think 5 to 1 for top 8 is great odds myself.
If we only get a bounce due to our goalkeepers xG being plus eight as opposed to minus eight, that 16 goal swing in our favour from last season would have meant we could have easily got top 8 last season.
With better results around injuries and so far from outgoings and incomings along with a couple of potential new youth players having an impact, think this season we should realistically be getting in the top eight and we have our strongest pre season for some time and not even really picked up any significant injuries.
I think we maybe going under the radar a bit as far as the bookies are concerned this season.
Saying all that ask me after Millwall and Pompey results.... [Post edited 5 Aug 21:45]
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With respect, Xg is a load of bollox or to put it more politely is, like all stats, ‘massageable’ to ‘prove’ anything. Here’s another stat - we drew 0-0 with Oxford (twice), Charlton and SW. Win those 4 games and we go level with Hull which is now in the Prem. Whoever else was at fault for nil nillers, it sure ain’t whoever was in goals. My point being that over the course of a season there will be numerous opportunities to gain or lose points and it won’t all be down to how many saves our new blue-eyed keeper makes.
On topic, I won’t be parting with any of my hard-earned cash until I see our ‘can’t be arsed’ attitude consigned to the bin. | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 23:00 - Aug 5 with 5844 views | HAMRanger |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 22:56 - Aug 5 by Myke |
With respect, Xg is a load of bollox or to put it more politely is, like all stats, ‘massageable’ to ‘prove’ anything. Here’s another stat - we drew 0-0 with Oxford (twice), Charlton and SW. Win those 4 games and we go level with Hull which is now in the Prem. Whoever else was at fault for nil nillers, it sure ain’t whoever was in goals. My point being that over the course of a season there will be numerous opportunities to gain or lose points and it won’t all be down to how many saves our new blue-eyed keeper makes.
On topic, I won’t be parting with any of my hard-earned cash until I see our ‘can’t be arsed’ attitude consigned to the bin. |
yeah, keepers are over rated. No need |  | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 23:04 - Aug 5 with 5821 views | Myke |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 23:00 - Aug 5 by HAMRanger |
yeah, keepers are over rated. No need |
Well the stats surrounding them are certainly over rated | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 23:18 - Aug 5 with 5792 views | numptydumpty |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 22:56 - Aug 5 by Myke |
With respect, Xg is a load of bollox or to put it more politely is, like all stats, ‘massageable’ to ‘prove’ anything. Here’s another stat - we drew 0-0 with Oxford (twice), Charlton and SW. Win those 4 games and we go level with Hull which is now in the Prem. Whoever else was at fault for nil nillers, it sure ain’t whoever was in goals. My point being that over the course of a season there will be numerous opportunities to gain or lose points and it won’t all be down to how many saves our new blue-eyed keeper makes.
On topic, I won’t be parting with any of my hard-earned cash until I see our ‘can’t be arsed’ attitude consigned to the bin. |
"With respect, its a load of bollox !!!"
Just contradicted yourself there in the same sentence.
I disagree with regards to xG, stats are based on all sorts of variables that can be monitored in games and although its not obviously going to be spot on the money, it can give a very good indication as to how a game has been playing out.
If used correctly, its a useful tool for the modern game.
"Our can't be arsed attitude" - blimey you must get a lot out of being a fan Myke.Thats the spirit - look on the bright side occasionally maybe.. [Post edited 5 Aug 23:20]
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 04:39 - Aug 6 with 5582 views | Match82 |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 22:56 - Aug 5 by Myke |
With respect, Xg is a load of bollox or to put it more politely is, like all stats, ‘massageable’ to ‘prove’ anything. Here’s another stat - we drew 0-0 with Oxford (twice), Charlton and SW. Win those 4 games and we go level with Hull which is now in the Prem. Whoever else was at fault for nil nillers, it sure ain’t whoever was in goals. My point being that over the course of a season there will be numerous opportunities to gain or lose points and it won’t all be down to how many saves our new blue-eyed keeper makes.
On topic, I won’t be parting with any of my hard-earned cash until I see our ‘can’t be arsed’ attitude consigned to the bin. |
Misleading as indicator for single game (which is why it's frustrating that this is how it seems to be used most) but tells a pretty good story over the course of a season.
Correlation was 0.75 I believe last season between points earned and xG which is extremely high |  | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 06:52 - Aug 6 with 5452 views | JamesB1979 |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 22:56 - Aug 5 by Myke |
With respect, Xg is a load of bollox or to put it more politely is, like all stats, ‘massageable’ to ‘prove’ anything. Here’s another stat - we drew 0-0 with Oxford (twice), Charlton and SW. Win those 4 games and we go level with Hull which is now in the Prem. Whoever else was at fault for nil nillers, it sure ain’t whoever was in goals. My point being that over the course of a season there will be numerous opportunities to gain or lose points and it won’t all be down to how many saves our new blue-eyed keeper makes.
On topic, I won’t be parting with any of my hard-earned cash until I see our ‘can’t be arsed’ attitude consigned to the bin. |
On the goalie, 2 that spring to mind, 1) Walsh palming it straight to Windass in injury time for their equaliser. I don’t think the squad really recovered from that game. I mean….im still not over it. 2) Preston scoring in middle of the goal because of his poor footwork. A game we would have won and was the start of our poor run as thoughts of playoffs were over. | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 07:42 - Aug 6 with 5349 views | stevec |
This change to top 8 has really put the kibosh on play off odds in the Championship betting market.
Bookies taking the pee on prices.
That said, 5/1 on a one in three chance of finishing top eight is one of the better bets. Of course, factoring in our last eleven attempts at top eight, we could be 1000/1.
Might throw it in on an accumulator with some of the EFL favourites as a side bet. |  | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 08:02 - Aug 6 with 5300 views | HammersmithR |
I still have us finishing 17/18th. I think our midfield is still a very weak point. You are not going to be successful having Varane and Morgan in our midfield I’m afraid. I’m very surprised we haven’t improved in this area of the pitch. Big concern for me. | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 09:03 - Aug 6 with 5216 views | StevenageRanger |
I actually think 5/1 is right!
A third of all clubs in the division will finish in the Top 8. That is a 1 in 3 chance if every club was equal, which is a 2/1 shot. | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 09:22 - Aug 6 with 5145 views | PlanetHonneywood |
Ahh, but some clubs are more equal than others!
Assuming the three that came down and the three that missed out on last season's PO are in contention, six out of the eight spots 'should' be taken care of. That leaves 18 clubs chasing two spots.
Of the latter cohort, you'd think Lincoln and possibly Bolton will be more focussed on survival. That reduces the number of chasers to 16. That alone would make it 8/1.
After that, well you'd think: Norwich, Brizzle, Brum, and Wrexham would be the more serious challengers for the POs, which would put the remaining 12 clubs jockeying to make hay if any of the more fancied 10 clubs falter, as everyone then awaits 'that' club who comes from nowhere to surprise us all.
If that club is to be QPR, it'll require a number of variables to align, both on and off the pitch, and to successfully manage the vicissitudes that we'll invariably encounter, but which maybe, we've not been that good at of late. | |
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| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 09:32 - Aug 6 with 5117 views | StevenageRanger |
Agree, but football doesn't always pan out like that!! Ask Luton and Leicester fans from the last two seasons how any assumptions of making the Top 8 played out for them!!
However, I very much get your point! | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 09:35 - Aug 6 with 5107 views | Myke |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 23:18 - Aug 5 by numptydumpty |
"With respect, its a load of bollox !!!"
Just contradicted yourself there in the same sentence.
I disagree with regards to xG, stats are based on all sorts of variables that can be monitored in games and although its not obviously going to be spot on the money, it can give a very good indication as to how a game has been playing out.
If used correctly, its a useful tool for the modern game.
"Our can't be arsed attitude" - blimey you must get a lot out of being a fan Myke.Thats the spirit - look on the bright side occasionally maybe.. [Post edited 5 Aug 23:20]
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Do you not agree there were many games last season (and previous seasons) when we simply didn't turn up? That's what I mean by "can't be arsed' attitude. There were games last season when you could tell in the first 5 minutes if we were 'on it' or not. We are not good enough to cherry pick which games we fully apply ourselves. We have to be fully up for every game for even a top 8 finish . | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 10:33 - Aug 6 with 5022 views | KensalT |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 23:18 - Aug 5 by numptydumpty |
"With respect, its a load of bollox !!!"
Just contradicted yourself there in the same sentence.
I disagree with regards to xG, stats are based on all sorts of variables that can be monitored in games and although its not obviously going to be spot on the money, it can give a very good indication as to how a game has been playing out.
If used correctly, its a useful tool for the modern game.
"Our can't be arsed attitude" - blimey you must get a lot out of being a fan Myke.Thats the spirit - look on the bright side occasionally maybe.. [Post edited 5 Aug 23:20]
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Sorry Numpty but I disagree.
xG is a nonsense, but worse than that it's draining the joy from the game.
If league tables were based on xG then Hull and Sunderland would have been relegated last season. Instead one got promoted and the other qualified for Europe.
There's nothing particularly sophisticated about xG, it's just a crude probability of a shot being scored based on things like position of the shot taker, is the attempt with the foot or the head, etc.
https://dataglossary.wyscout.c
The xG for a penalty kick is 0.76
If it's me taking the penalty and Donnarumma in goal the xG is 0.76.
If it's Nicholas Madsen taking the penalty and Dopey from the Seven Dwarfs in goal the xG is still 0.76.
That's why xG is a nonsense. It makes no allowance for the quality of the individuals involved or how committed a defending team might be to trying to block a shot from open play.
To explain why xG is sucking the joy out of the game I will quote what Clive had to say about Daniel Bennie's screamer in the 3-1 win at Hull back in February:
https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/
"The Australian’s spectacular first league goal for Queens Park Rangers was, first and foremost, the decisive moment in this 3-1 away win at Hull City. A much-needed victory if you’re still holding onto play-off hopes for the Rangers this season after the draining home losses to Wrexham and Blackburn. But the manner of it, the style of it, the distance on it and the reason he took it on in the first place was not only manna for the 700+ faithful behind the goal at the far end who have endured 11 away games with just one victory going back into October, but everybody who is subjected to the tedium of modern football.
If you want to quickly farm yourself some social media engagement, stick a Match of the Day Goal of the Month montage on from 15-20 years ago. Sit back and watch the clicks roll in as the Lightning Seeds play Life of Riley and Paul Scholes volleys in off the underside of the Villa Park crossbar from 35 yards, or Michael Essien walks onto a right footer from somewhere out in the Stamford Bridge car park, Dennis Bergkamp nutmegs two defenders and chips the goalkeeper or Matt Le Tissier humiliates some poor sod into the top corner. Smile at the empty sky and wait for the moment a million chances may all collide - often all in the same month. Des’ moustache would twitch knowingly as he tells you there’s “one or two to pick from” before offering you some Premium Bonds if you match 1, 2 and 3 with Alan Hansen.
You don’t see goals like that any more because football has become an over-coached, robotic snoozefest. Coaching staffs and back offices are packed with data scientists, economics graduates and mathematicians. Dugouts populated by mechanical bores like Thomas Frank. And they say that, actually, Paul Scholes’ volley only had an xG of 0.013 and had he played another pass or two and had somebody taken a shot from five yards out instead he’d have had an xG of 0.28 and why don’t you just shoot me in the head with a massive sawn off? Data says corners, data says long throws, data says “penalty area penetration” and we sit there bored out of our minds remembering when we used to come here for a good time while the television companies flash up a graphic telling you how many “touches in the opposition box” each side has had. Data does not say shoot from 30 yards, and so no f*cker does – it’s actively, aggressively coached out of them. These people think that Trevor Sinclair goal was a bad thing."
* PS - I had to edit Clive's original text because of language inappropriate for this forum  |  | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 10:57 - Aug 6 with 4972 views | robith |
Nothing about football odds surprises me but jfc, 5/1 for top 8 is an appalling price |  | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 12:01 - Aug 6 with 4823 views | KensalT |
Sporting Life don't fancy us
https://www.sportinglife.com/f
"Julien Stephan's side ended last season in dreadful form and the 20/1 about QPR TO FINISH BOTTOM looks worth taking." | | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 12:13 - Aug 6 with 4777 views | DavieQPR |
Did have £10 on Kone to win Golden Boot at 66-1. |  | | |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 13:15 - Aug 6 with 4665 views | TheChef |
| Bookies odds for a top 8 finish on 10:33 - Aug 6 by KensalT |
Sorry Numpty but I disagree.
xG is a nonsense, but worse than that it's draining the joy from the game.
If league tables were based on xG then Hull and Sunderland would have been relegated last season. Instead one got promoted and the other qualified for Europe.
There's nothing particularly sophisticated about xG, it's just a crude probability of a shot being scored based on things like position of the shot taker, is the attempt with the foot or the head, etc.
https://dataglossary.wyscout.c
The xG for a penalty kick is 0.76
If it's me taking the penalty and Donnarumma in goal the xG is 0.76.
If it's Nicholas Madsen taking the penalty and Dopey from the Seven Dwarfs in goal the xG is still 0.76.
That's why xG is a nonsense. It makes no allowance for the quality of the individuals involved or how committed a defending team might be to trying to block a shot from open play.
To explain why xG is sucking the joy out of the game I will quote what Clive had to say about Daniel Bennie's screamer in the 3-1 win at Hull back in February:
https://www.fansnetwork.co.uk/
"The Australian’s spectacular first league goal for Queens Park Rangers was, first and foremost, the decisive moment in this 3-1 away win at Hull City. A much-needed victory if you’re still holding onto play-off hopes for the Rangers this season after the draining home losses to Wrexham and Blackburn. But the manner of it, the style of it, the distance on it and the reason he took it on in the first place was not only manna for the 700+ faithful behind the goal at the far end who have endured 11 away games with just one victory going back into October, but everybody who is subjected to the tedium of modern football.
If you want to quickly farm yourself some social media engagement, stick a Match of the Day Goal of the Month montage on from 15-20 years ago. Sit back and watch the clicks roll in as the Lightning Seeds play Life of Riley and Paul Scholes volleys in off the underside of the Villa Park crossbar from 35 yards, or Michael Essien walks onto a right footer from somewhere out in the Stamford Bridge car park, Dennis Bergkamp nutmegs two defenders and chips the goalkeeper or Matt Le Tissier humiliates some poor sod into the top corner. Smile at the empty sky and wait for the moment a million chances may all collide - often all in the same month. Des’ moustache would twitch knowingly as he tells you there’s “one or two to pick from” before offering you some Premium Bonds if you match 1, 2 and 3 with Alan Hansen.
You don’t see goals like that any more because football has become an over-coached, robotic snoozefest. Coaching staffs and back offices are packed with data scientists, economics graduates and mathematicians. Dugouts populated by mechanical bores like Thomas Frank. And they say that, actually, Paul Scholes’ volley only had an xG of 0.013 and had he played another pass or two and had somebody taken a shot from five yards out instead he’d have had an xG of 0.28 and why don’t you just shoot me in the head with a massive sawn off? Data says corners, data says long throws, data says “penalty area penetration” and we sit there bored out of our minds remembering when we used to come here for a good time while the television companies flash up a graphic telling you how many “touches in the opposition box” each side has had. Data does not say shoot from 30 yards, and so no f*cker does – it’s actively, aggressively coached out of them. These people think that Trevor Sinclair goal was a bad thing."
* PS - I had to edit Clive's original text because of language inappropriate for this forum |
Great stuff.
This why I still enjoy watching The Big Match Revisited where you'll actually see players trying shots from outside the box, wingers running with the ball and attempting crosses, rather than turning back inside and recycling the ball (YAWN).
But now everything is so data led and probability percentages are drummed into players so they barely try doing anything too off the cuff. Real shame. |  |
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