| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 09:15 - Aug 13 with 5763 views | Northernr |
Once again you can listen to Steve and I debate this, with our oppo contributors, on the Patreon
https://www.patreon.com/LoftFo |  | |  |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 09:35 - Aug 13 with 5628 views | Jeff |
Absolutely heroic effort Clive in getting all of this together, thanks to you, Steve and Producer Jaz getting this altogther.
As a peep behind the curtain for everyone else, however much time you think it took Clive to put all of this together, it's easily twice as long. I'm knackered, and i'm just the tech guy!
47 match previews and reports to go  |  |
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| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 09:50 - Aug 13 with 5532 views | stevec |
Oi, wake up, you’ve missed one out. |  | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 11:02 - Aug 13 with 5251 views | monners1969 |
NorthernR - think that top needs a wash now bud...
Great listening.... |  | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 11:17 - Aug 13 with 5185 views | BristolR |
Superb effort, you can just tell the amount of time and effort that’s gone into all three of these and the written work alongside.
Top quality Clive and Steve (and tech support and producer - not salaried positions), chapeau!
I can actually feel a small tingling about the season to come, but that might just be last night’s Jalfrezi |  | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 12:59 - Aug 13 with 4776 views | Wilkinswatercarrier |
Could quite easily see West Ham, Wolves and Burnley all having mini implosions if they don't start strongly. All three clubs look like basket cases, throw Southampton in as well and the top end could look very different.
Boro, great at buying and selling yet not got over the line. The pressure continues to build for them. |  |
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| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 13:00 - Aug 13 with 4774 views | Northernr |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 12:59 - Aug 13 by Wilkinswatercarrier |
Could quite easily see West Ham, Wolves and Burnley all having mini implosions if they don't start strongly. All three clubs look like basket cases, throw Southampton in as well and the top end could look very different.
Boro, great at buying and selling yet not got over the line. The pressure continues to build for them. |
Yeh I kind of wish I'd been brave enough to just put Boro, Norwich, Southampton and Millwall as my top four and fck em because I think they all look like train wrecks. | | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 13:01 - Aug 13 with 4774 views | Dave_Lazy |
"Fandab Edozie" a quality insert to which I doth my cap to you sir!! |  | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 13:31 - Aug 13 with 4648 views | StrawberryHillR |
Great work, thanks for the huge effort.
This from the Saints oppo view seems borderline delusional to me...
"I've already had a lot of people say to me over the summer ‘aren’t you worried about opposition supporters taunting you about the spying?’ and the honest answer is no. If fans want to waste their energy on that they can go ahead. I believe that if we get off to a good start, by around late October into early November the taunting will become less vocal, as we will have proved that we are a good side on merit and it had nothing to do with a young intern going to watch a few training sessions of opponents we were due to face."
Surely Eckert gets a chunky ban, and I'm not sure they're in the least bit expecting the amount of vitriol coming their way? [Post edited 13 Aug 14:28]
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| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 14:07 - Aug 13 with 4500 views | KensalT |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 13:31 - Aug 13 by StrawberryHillR |
Great work, thanks for the huge effort.
This from the Saints oppo view seems borderline delusional to me...
"I've already had a lot of people say to me over the summer ‘aren’t you worried about opposition supporters taunting you about the spying?’ and the honest answer is no. If fans want to waste their energy on that they can go ahead. I believe that if we get off to a good start, by around late October into early November the taunting will become less vocal, as we will have proved that we are a good side on merit and it had nothing to do with a young intern going to watch a few training sessions of opponents we were due to face."
Surely Eckert gets a chunky ban, and I'm not sure they're in the least bit expecting the amount of vitriol coming their way? [Post edited 13 Aug 14:28]
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They can't bring themselves to use the word "cheating".
I think that PR campaign Clive referred to was for the benefit of their own fans more than anything else. Some of them have bought into it and there really is some delusional nonsense coming from some of them.
I saw one muppet claiming they were hard done by because spying is allowed in the PL!
Erm, no! |  | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 17:36 - Aug 13 with 4095 views | cheesy |
Thanks Clive. Enjoyed all the videos etc.
I've been listning to a lot of podcasts etc and all seem to have us relegated or top 8. Nothing in the middle.
Hope you get some great away days. |  | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 18:34 - Aug 13 with 3970 views | MrSheen |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 17:36 - Aug 13 by cheesy |
Thanks Clive. Enjoyed all the videos etc.
I've been listning to a lot of podcasts etc and all seem to have us relegated or top 8. Nothing in the middle.
Hope you get some great away days. |
Epic series Clive. I’m also someone who trembles at the name Middlesbrough, but is Will Lankshear that good? I didn’t make a point of watching Oxford any more than I had to, but what does he do well? |  | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 19:24 - Aug 13 with 3899 views | Sonic_Hoop |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 18:34 - Aug 13 by MrSheen |
Epic series Clive. I’m also someone who trembles at the name Middlesbrough, but is Will Lankshear that good? I didn’t make a point of watching Oxford any more than I had to, but what does he do well? |
Kids conceived on the ferries? |  | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 21:46 - Aug 13 with 3716 views | Dorse |
First up - stunning amount of work put in by Norf. Gob well and truly smacked.
On the subject of smacked gobs, has anyone else clocked yhe sheer numbers being spent by Championship clubs this season? Compared to the money coming in, it looks completely unsustainable.
When did it become normal for also-rans to chuck £30-40m at a transfer window when all their sales come to £500 and a handful of frees? Insane. |  |
| 'What do we want? We don't know! When do we want it? Now!' |
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| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 23:58 - Aug 13 with 3542 views | Northernr |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 18:34 - Aug 13 by MrSheen |
Epic series Clive. I’m also someone who trembles at the name Middlesbrough, but is Will Lankshear that good? I didn’t make a point of watching Oxford any more than I had to, but what does he do well? |
Prepare to find out. | | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 10:50 - Aug 14 with 2999 views | daveB |
Was really looking forward to reading these on flight home yesterday but the bloody wifi wasn't working so thats my afternoon sorted today |  | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 11:18 - Aug 14 with 2934 views | Stainrod |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 21:46 - Aug 13 by Dorse |
First up - stunning amount of work put in by Norf. Gob well and truly smacked.
On the subject of smacked gobs, has anyone else clocked yhe sheer numbers being spent by Championship clubs this season? Compared to the money coming in, it looks completely unsustainable.
When did it become normal for also-rans to chuck £30-40m at a transfer window when all their sales come to £500 and a handful of frees? Insane. |
Yes, we must be one of the smallest spenders this window. My biggest takeaway from Clive’s epic preview effort is the spend: 10m for a keeper, 8m here, 5m for a full back - and this not just from the main challengers.
The other is the sheer number of players released or jettisoned for “undisclosed fee” (which in many cases probably amounts to fairly similar things).
Outside a few clubs like Boro, how many are generating mega revenue from player sales? And how many are just dipping into the owner’s back pocket? | | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 12:41 - Aug 14 with 2808 views | Hunterhoop |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 11:18 - Aug 14 by Stainrod |
Yes, we must be one of the smallest spenders this window. My biggest takeaway from Clive’s epic preview effort is the spend: 10m for a keeper, 8m here, 5m for a full back - and this not just from the main challengers.
The other is the sheer number of players released or jettisoned for “undisclosed fee” (which in many cases probably amounts to fairly similar things).
Outside a few clubs like Boro, how many are generating mega revenue from player sales? And how many are just dipping into the owner’s back pocket? |
Well, alongside Boro, West Ham, Burnley, Southampton, and Swansea have all realised big sales. Sheff Utd just sold Hamer for £6m ish, even PNE supposedly got £3m for Whiteman. Lincoln got a fair whack for Moylan to Cardiff. Brum brought in £4m for a couple of players too.
More teams than you think have sold and brought in a lot more than we have. Granted we haven’t spent much on transfer fees in seems (not a surprise after the last two seasons and PSR). But there are a lot of sales in the league at levels we haven’t achieved for a while, and will need to achieve to continue the player trading model.
Here’s hoping we have a cracking season so we can sell in the summer and not be faced with a fire sale ahead of next season to meet PSR. A couple of big sales in Jan/July 2027 will give us funds to stave off PSR whilst also reinvesting into the squad to improve its strength (if we do it well). A bad season and/or lots of injuries to key assets, and we could have some problems financially. Definite want us to avoid that. |  | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 13:44 - Aug 14 with 2685 views | Stainrod |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 12:41 - Aug 14 by Hunterhoop |
Well, alongside Boro, West Ham, Burnley, Southampton, and Swansea have all realised big sales. Sheff Utd just sold Hamer for £6m ish, even PNE supposedly got £3m for Whiteman. Lincoln got a fair whack for Moylan to Cardiff. Brum brought in £4m for a couple of players too.
More teams than you think have sold and brought in a lot more than we have. Granted we haven’t spent much on transfer fees in seems (not a surprise after the last two seasons and PSR). But there are a lot of sales in the league at levels we haven’t achieved for a while, and will need to achieve to continue the player trading model.
Here’s hoping we have a cracking season so we can sell in the summer and not be faced with a fire sale ahead of next season to meet PSR. A couple of big sales in Jan/July 2027 will give us funds to stave off PSR whilst also reinvesting into the squad to improve its strength (if we do it well). A bad season and/or lots of injuries to key assets, and we could have some problems financially. Definite want us to avoid that. |
Yes agree with some of that but it seems pretty clear from Clive’s summary that we are far from alone in playing in this high stakes casino with no clear signs on how it will pan out.
We have also sold players like Kelman for £3.5m and got a million here or there for other cast offs so it’s not like from the PNE example down we are being blown out of the water in terms of sales. I appreciate it’s not enough and am also aware that media reports of our supposed sales figures might be inflated, but the same could be suggested about all these other figures you quote (they are also just media reports).
I also don’t think you can meaningfully compare player sales from relegated Premier League clubs.
Given the vast revenues they received in the Prem they were able to spend tens of millions of pounds on players. It would therefore be pretty shocking if they weren’t selling players now for mega money. The most we have paid is 4.5m for a player, and that was only in Jan, so clearly we are not going to get the same level of sales.
Boro is an outlier and has done brilliantly. Agree Swansea have done well in this regard as have Millwall to some extent.
Am not saying we have nothing to worry about (far from it) and I also accept we are overdue at least a medium sized, fairly chunky sale. But the clear picture from Clive’s reports is that almost everyone is spending quite hefty amounts and that in most cases that outweighs the return in player sales. | | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 14:15 - Aug 14 with 2611 views | Hunterhoop |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 13:44 - Aug 14 by Stainrod |
Yes agree with some of that but it seems pretty clear from Clive’s summary that we are far from alone in playing in this high stakes casino with no clear signs on how it will pan out.
We have also sold players like Kelman for £3.5m and got a million here or there for other cast offs so it’s not like from the PNE example down we are being blown out of the water in terms of sales. I appreciate it’s not enough and am also aware that media reports of our supposed sales figures might be inflated, but the same could be suggested about all these other figures you quote (they are also just media reports).
I also don’t think you can meaningfully compare player sales from relegated Premier League clubs.
Given the vast revenues they received in the Prem they were able to spend tens of millions of pounds on players. It would therefore be pretty shocking if they weren’t selling players now for mega money. The most we have paid is 4.5m for a player, and that was only in Jan, so clearly we are not going to get the same level of sales.
Boro is an outlier and has done brilliantly. Agree Swansea have done well in this regard as have Millwall to some extent.
Am not saying we have nothing to worry about (far from it) and I also accept we are overdue at least a medium sized, fairly chunky sale. But the clear picture from Clive’s reports is that almost everyone is spending quite hefty amounts and that in most cases that outweighs the return in player sales. |
Completely appreciate lots of other teams are gambling and the whole thing is unsustainable.
On another thread you mentioned how someone “went out and spent £5m on a right back. We don’t have that sort of money.”
Feels like there is some amnesia here.
In Jan we literally went out and spent £4.5m on a centre half, and £900k on a centre forward. We didn’t sell anyone.
Last Sept we went out and spent between £2.8m and £5m (depending on who you believe) on Saito.
We aren’t spending big transfer fees now because we have spent north of £25m in the two prior seasons at large net cost against what we have sold. We’ve been able to do that because we amortise the transfer fees, whilst accounting for any fee gained in sales in totality up front, and the Eze add on that landed (thank you, LF). The issue with amortising is it means some of that £25m is booked as transfer fee cost this season, even though we don’t get a new player for that. They’re here already.
Everyone can do that. We may simply be ahead in that cycle of others.
In those two years, we know from the accounts we actually sold Armstrong and Dykes for £1.8m up front rising to £2.2m combined. Let’s see in March what our player sales raised for last season, then we’ll know if we recover £3.5m for Kelman.
We’ve have spent the sort of money other non-parachute clubs are spending. We’ve done it the past two seasons. Our wage bill has also gone up understandably.
We aren’t going to be able to spend decent amounts on transfer fees again until we bring in some hefty sales to enable to player trading model to roll over (and keep PSR at bay).
Part of the reason I’m optimistic and think expectations should be high this year is we have done our spending the prior two seasons, players are settled, they’ve built relationships on the pitch with teammates and they’re entering years 2 and 3. Now is the time we should see dividends on the pitch. [Post edited 14 Aug 14:17]
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| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 15:00 - Aug 14 with 2508 views | sevenhoop |
Thanks Clive (and Steve!). Excellent listen/watch. It doesn't get said enough by enough people, but we are very very lucjy to have you .
Hope we can all enjoy tomorrow |  | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 15:26 - Aug 14 with 2462 views | Stainrod |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 14:15 - Aug 14 by Hunterhoop |
Completely appreciate lots of other teams are gambling and the whole thing is unsustainable.
On another thread you mentioned how someone “went out and spent £5m on a right back. We don’t have that sort of money.”
Feels like there is some amnesia here.
In Jan we literally went out and spent £4.5m on a centre half, and £900k on a centre forward. We didn’t sell anyone.
Last Sept we went out and spent between £2.8m and £5m (depending on who you believe) on Saito.
We aren’t spending big transfer fees now because we have spent north of £25m in the two prior seasons at large net cost against what we have sold. We’ve been able to do that because we amortise the transfer fees, whilst accounting for any fee gained in sales in totality up front, and the Eze add on that landed (thank you, LF). The issue with amortising is it means some of that £25m is booked as transfer fee cost this season, even though we don’t get a new player for that. They’re here already.
Everyone can do that. We may simply be ahead in that cycle of others.
In those two years, we know from the accounts we actually sold Armstrong and Dykes for £1.8m up front rising to £2.2m combined. Let’s see in March what our player sales raised for last season, then we’ll know if we recover £3.5m for Kelman.
We’ve have spent the sort of money other non-parachute clubs are spending. We’ve done it the past two seasons. Our wage bill has also gone up understandably.
We aren’t going to be able to spend decent amounts on transfer fees again until we bring in some hefty sales to enable to player trading model to roll over (and keep PSR at bay).
Part of the reason I’m optimistic and think expectations should be high this year is we have done our spending the prior two seasons, players are settled, they’ve built relationships on the pitch with teammates and they’re entering years 2 and 3. Now is the time we should see dividends on the pitch. [Post edited 14 Aug 14:17]
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Thank you for the response Hunter, well argued as ever.
Re my comment about the right back, I should have clarified that we don’t have that kind of money to spend this window and on that position. We bought one right back for a reported 300k and we have just got another on a free (albeit it might be on big-ish wages).
I agree with most of your last post, it’s all factually correct.
But I don’t think you have refuted my point that bar a tiny number of clubs (eg Boro and Swansea) there are really very few comparable clubs indeed that are doing any better that us on player trading.
Re wages the latest study in the Guardian (for 2024/5) has our wages as the 14th highest relative to income. In absolute terms that has almost certainly gone up, but we don’t know yet (as far as I’m aware?) : a) if total spend has gone up relative to income and b) relative to other clubs in the division (since then the likes of Brum and Wrexham have joined us along with insane expensive squads from the Prem).
Because we are QPR fans it’s natural we obsess about QPR but Clive quoted the American owner of one club (possibly Brum?) as saying the Championship economic model is insane. Given this, I am just a little less inclined than some to pounce on every apparent mistake by the club because almost every comparable club is wrestling with the same problems.
I think we both agree this is a pivotal season and we are well placed to make progress due to the better players we have brought in. We also agree we need a sale to show the model works.
What exactly constitutes success verses simply parring the course is based partly on guesswork as we only really know how much we and (crucially) all our rivals spent a couple of years after the event when accounts are published.
Purely a guess but I would suggest the spend on our squad as a whole is about mid-table or slightly lower (way, way, way less than the big boys obviously but also less than the likes of Stoke, Wrexham, Brum and possibly Watford (albeit they have dodgy accounting systems). On that basis if we did hit 8th place we would be punching, 12th would be respectable. We certainly shouldn’t adopt the mindset that, say, 10th place would be any kind of failure. | | | |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 16:54 - Aug 14 with 2388 views | Hunterhoop |
| Season Preview 26/27 – The Contenders on 15:26 - Aug 14 by Stainrod |
Thank you for the response Hunter, well argued as ever.
Re my comment about the right back, I should have clarified that we don’t have that kind of money to spend this window and on that position. We bought one right back for a reported 300k and we have just got another on a free (albeit it might be on big-ish wages).
I agree with most of your last post, it’s all factually correct.
But I don’t think you have refuted my point that bar a tiny number of clubs (eg Boro and Swansea) there are really very few comparable clubs indeed that are doing any better that us on player trading.
Re wages the latest study in the Guardian (for 2024/5) has our wages as the 14th highest relative to income. In absolute terms that has almost certainly gone up, but we don’t know yet (as far as I’m aware?) : a) if total spend has gone up relative to income and b) relative to other clubs in the division (since then the likes of Brum and Wrexham have joined us along with insane expensive squads from the Prem).
Because we are QPR fans it’s natural we obsess about QPR but Clive quoted the American owner of one club (possibly Brum?) as saying the Championship economic model is insane. Given this, I am just a little less inclined than some to pounce on every apparent mistake by the club because almost every comparable club is wrestling with the same problems.
I think we both agree this is a pivotal season and we are well placed to make progress due to the better players we have brought in. We also agree we need a sale to show the model works.
What exactly constitutes success verses simply parring the course is based partly on guesswork as we only really know how much we and (crucially) all our rivals spent a couple of years after the event when accounts are published.
Purely a guess but I would suggest the spend on our squad as a whole is about mid-table or slightly lower (way, way, way less than the big boys obviously but also less than the likes of Stoke, Wrexham, Brum and possibly Watford (albeit they have dodgy accounting systems). On that basis if we did hit 8th place we would be punching, 12th would be respectable. We certainly shouldn’t adopt the mindset that, say, 10th place would be any kind of failure. |
Yeah, I agree with lots of that Stainrod. It’s very hard to make comparisons with other clubs when we simply aren’t anywhere near as close to their finances, where they are the cycles, decisions made, alternative, etc. It’s why I prefer to focus on relative comparisons with QPR across the last decade or so. Of course, we’re competing against 23 other clubs in the here and now, but we were doing so in each of the seasons over the last decade, and, if when competing against those other clubs, almost all spending more money than us then, we can finish 15th on 56 odd points, then that’s why I think we should see a notable step forward given all the investments the current regime has been able to make, and the time they’ve had to bed them in and deliver that step forward.
I actually agree with you, 9th-12th is a perfectly acceptable step forward. The target should be 8th (otherwise what is the point? Where is the ambition), but 9th-12th would be solid progress, so long as we make a big sale in the summer to keep the player model churning. I think bottom half would be a bit of a failure and remaining 15th or below very much one. I think we’re aligned here. And I’m pretty sure the key stakeholders at the club are on the same page too.
The one caveat is that if we finish 10th say, and, for whatever reason (injuries, luck, the plague) we cannot sell someone for 8 figures (or 2 players for more than that), it should be deemed a failing because our PSR position in 12 months time will be treacherous, and we’ll have to have the belt tightening type season we had under Ainsworth at some point. By the time that comes around, perhaps 28/29, I doubt this current regime will still be here. But we will.
Honestly, I’m not out to pick fault in everything the club or its leadership does. I’ve openly praised a number of the signings this summer and in previous ones. I think the squad is hugely improved. However, a) I think context is important; for a club without any serious sales in a while we have spent a lot relative to the league as well, and b) I do think *how* the leadership of the club act and engage with people is important, and, from all the things I have heard, there are serious, significant improvements to be made there. Others may not care about point b, but I do.
I think we’re aligned on season target and expectations. I don’t think we’re being left behind on spend, because we’ve done it in the prior years. We spent way more than others over the last two seasons (the promoted 3, Charlton, Watford, Pompey, Preston, Swansea, Millwall, even Bristol City, and more I’m probably forgetting). This summer we’ve had to keep our powder dry a little, but looking at the broader context, we should certainly be able to compete even with those spending now.
I should add, I do think we should debate parachute payments now. The 3 coming down, with their player sales, are loaded to a silly degree, especially with new PSR rules. And Wrexham have a huge advantage due to commercial revenue. So 4 sides blow us out of the water. Most of the others have just been doing a better player trading model for longer (in a couple of cases aided by parachute payments but in the main not). | | | |
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