| Play Offs 09:52 - May 17 with 54781 views | TomS |
Surely the only team that can stop Brentford from getting promoted is Brentford. Looking at the form table, Wycombe have a better record in their final five matches than all of the other three clubs in the Play Offs, and they got relegated.
Momentum is everything in the Championship, can the serial chokers keep their composure this time around? |  | | |  |
| Play Offs on 21:50 - May 17 with 2853 views | rsonist |
It is simply a table arranged to the quality of chances a team creates which is by and large a decent indicator (not metric) of performance. We for instance have always been midtable in xG even at our lowest IRL. Brentford probably don't produce their own data for it - that particular info is made widely available now - though it's possible Benham's company may have some sort of additional edge, who knows.
It is not taken as gospel of a true alternate reality by anyone despite being a useful tool (sometimes just motivationally) more often than not. There are some managers like Dyche and Simeone who consistently make mincemeat of it.
Sky love it when they get on your nerves and call this "engagement". |  | | |
| Play Offs on 21:56 - May 17 with 2821 views | rsonist |
| Play Offs on 21:48 - May 17 by Hunterhoop |
Every league in the world?! How do they have the time?
If they’re just plugging in basic stats (possession, shots, etc) in mot algorithm, what’s the point? It’ll only be as good as the data they have to input, so if the match has been tracked incorrectly, it’ll all be wrong, won’t it?
And we know match stats differ from media outlet to media outlet. Just look after one of our games. Sky and BBC always disagree on almost all measures.
And besides, basic stats rarely tell a match story accurately. How do they know of a red card was fair, a penalty fair, a shot on target a good chance or a hopeful long range effort?
I know the top leagues track data at much more detailed level. ExG exist but the algorithm is clearly wrong. It almost always has ExG at lower than the actual number of real goals scored. And, whilst their may be the detail for top tiers, but for lower leagues all over Europe?! Come on. The data they’re using can’t be right all the time.
This encourages me they’ll get a big signing wrong soon.
Their analysis may be better than others, that’s an opinion, but it is clearly not correct. |
It's licenced from data provider companies.
https://dtai.cs.kuleuven.be/sports/blog/how-data-quality-affects-xg
IIRC our job description for a data analyst early this year specified using Statsbomb in particular. | | | |
| Play Offs on 22:09 - May 17 with 2708 views | Hunterhoop |
| Play Offs on 21:50 - May 17 by rsonist |
It is simply a table arranged to the quality of chances a team creates which is by and large a decent indicator (not metric) of performance. We for instance have always been midtable in xG even at our lowest IRL. Brentford probably don't produce their own data for it - that particular info is made widely available now - though it's possible Benham's company may have some sort of additional edge, who knows.
It is not taken as gospel of a true alternate reality by anyone despite being a useful tool (sometimes just motivationally) more often than not. There are some managers like Dyche and Simeone who consistently make mincemeat of it.
Sky love it when they get on your nerves and call this "engagement". |
So it’s using crude, potentially incorrect indicators. Great.
At best it may be of interest, at worst misleading.
Hardly what I’d call genuine analysis.
People forget Data Analysis is a complete waste of time, no matter what software you use or the resources you have, if you use the wrong data, or the data is potentially inaccurate. It’s all about the quality of input. |  | | |
| Play Offs on 22:44 - May 17 with 2587 views | switchingcode |
Just back from the settee in the other room good game not unhappy with the result really fancy us to turn them over Saturday especially as Henry and Dalsgaard looking good after lengthy lay offs although Toney looks like he has an injury.Looking forward to a blinding day Saturday actually being able to shout and scream from the stands and whatever the result being back to some kind of normality.By the way I’m seated in the away end so if it goes tits up I can let you know what it’s like for you dudes next season. |  | | |
| Play Offs on 00:33 - May 18 with 2419 views | rsonist |
| Play Offs on 22:09 - May 17 by Hunterhoop |
So it’s using crude, potentially incorrect indicators. Great.
At best it may be of interest, at worst misleading.
Hardly what I’d call genuine analysis.
People forget Data Analysis is a complete waste of time, no matter what software you use or the resources you have, if you use the wrong data, or the data is potentially inaccurate. It’s all about the quality of input. |
The linked article concludes:
On the other hand, data quality is mainly important for analyzing small amounts of data. An important nuance that is often lacking in the discussion about the quality of soccer data is the ultimate goal of the metrics that are built on the data. The perception is often that every metric is developed to analyze individual matches, but that is often not the case. Scouting players, for example, mainly involves patterns and insights across multiple matches or even entire seasons. For such applications, availability or coverage is often much more important than the quality of the data, as long as a certain quality is guaranteed. | | | |
| Play Offs on 01:12 - May 18 with 2372 views | Northernr |
Begrudgingly accept that result and what it means. Haven’t gone into it but if there’s ever been a team that has overcome a greater xG hammering than the one Bournemouth took tonight and come back to win the away leg I’d be astonished. FiveThirtyEight.com may as well just call that second leg and let’s get on with the formalities of the final. |  | | |
| Play Offs on 07:22 - May 18 with 2129 views | Hunterhoop |
| Play Offs on 00:33 - May 18 by rsonist |
The linked article concludes:
On the other hand, data quality is mainly important for analyzing small amounts of data. An important nuance that is often lacking in the discussion about the quality of soccer data is the ultimate goal of the metrics that are built on the data. The perception is often that every metric is developed to analyze individual matches, but that is often not the case. Scouting players, for example, mainly involves patterns and insights across multiple matches or even entire seasons. For such applications, availability or coverage is often much more important than the quality of the data, as long as a certain quality is guaranteed. |
So the source of data itself basically caveats that it’s not best used for creating a Justice League, instead specific player analysis. Yet, Brentford still use it for both. Encouraging. | | | |
| Play Offs on 08:48 - May 18 with 1991 views | Phildo |
Very clear what the justice league ( TM Marvel) result should have been last night:
'Toney was tamed but Frank, who has repeatedly advocated for the use of VAR technology in the play-offs, was furious that his side were not awarded a first-half penalty when Adam Smith collided with Tariqe Fosu. “It was 100% a penalty,” he said. “It is these situations we need to get bang on. I think … what is it … we’re only playing for about £170m?” ' |  | | |
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| Play Offs on 09:01 - May 18 with 1939 views | DieByYourSide |
Watched a bit of the second half of the Barnsley game last night. I get that they're something different and a lot of people don't want to see the same old names up there, but f*cking hell the football they play. It'd be funny to see how they fared in the PL but with so many misdirected punts upfield and their goalie playing sweeper-keeper just made it look like a League 1 game to me. | |
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| Play Offs on 09:03 - May 18 with 1926 views | MrSheen |
Credit to Swansea for make the blue vermin's new kit look tasteful.
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| Play Offs on 09:03 - May 18 with 1930 views | SK_hoops |
| Play Offs on 01:12 - May 18 by Northernr |
Begrudgingly accept that result and what it means. Haven’t gone into it but if there’s ever been a team that has overcome a greater xG hammering than the one Bournemouth took tonight and come back to win the away leg I’d be astonished. FiveThirtyEight.com may as well just call that second leg and let’s get on with the formalities of the final. |
Never underestimate the power of the bottle. | | | |
| Play Offs on 09:40 - May 18 with 1837 views | francisbowles |
Anyone notice the way Brentford kicked off the match? Passed kick off back to keeper, who was about forty+ yards up the pitch and he hammered it upfield.
I haven't seen that tactic before, nothing wrong with it but it's definitely long ball/kick and rush, rugby play for territory. I wonder if they have scored any very early goals, attributed to this move. | | | |
| Play Offs on 09:44 - May 18 with 1827 views | Juzzie |
F'kin "metrics" - had our monthly meeting yesterday which was all metrics, metrics metrics.
Thing is, I reckon a lot of it was wrong. They've taken the wrong data to present their findings against. What they used was the box we tick to ensure we have checked to see if the product is going to be delivered on time or not. All that box tells us is when the person checked & then ticked it to close it down. That's all. It doesn't reflect on whether parts were delivered on time, whether we placed the order on time or whether the stock will be delivered on time (mostly they are).
Parts could be delivered late but if we tick that box on time it's effectively saying everything was OK rather than everyone down the line has done that bit extra to make up for lost time.
All parts could be delivered on time but if we tick that box late (lots of reasons why that could be rather than just tardiness) it would suggest that everything was done late even though it wasn't.
Going to have a chat with my line manager about it as there are other places the appropriate info from that software can be gleaned from.
Of course, asking the staff , y'know.... those with 20, 25, 30+ years experience means nothing, everything can only be believed because it says so on a spreadsheet (even if it's incorrectly set up).
[Post edited 18 May 2021 9:46]
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| Play Offs on 09:50 - May 18 with 1797 views | gazza1 |
So, who is going up to the Premier?......fxck the stats, etc, etc.
Was a tough call and still is a tough call.
Bournemouth for me. | | | |
| Play Offs on 09:55 - May 18 with 1783 views | hook_hoops |
| Play Offs on 22:44 - May 17 by switchingcode |
Just back from the settee in the other room good game not unhappy with the result really fancy us to turn them over Saturday especially as Henry and Dalsgaard looking good after lengthy lay offs although Toney looks like he has an injury.Looking forward to a blinding day Saturday actually being able to shout and scream from the stands and whatever the result being back to some kind of normality.By the way I’m seated in the away end so if it goes tits up I can let you know what it’s like for you dudes next season. |
I wouldn't be quite so confident of Brentford's chances on Saturday. I think in the playoffs teams often find the home leg more difficult than the away leg and I think Bournemouth will be very satisfied with their one goal lead. Brentford will have to come at Bournemouth and Bournemouth showed last night how good they are on the counter attack. And don't forget, nine play off appearances, nine fails. | | | |
| Play Offs on 09:56 - May 18 with 1775 views | gazza1 |
Not 100% but do away goals count, dont think they do over 90 minutes. | | | |
| Play Offs on 10:10 - May 18 with 1746 views | Juzzie |
| Play Offs on 09:56 - May 18 by gazza1 |
Not 100% but do away goals count, dont think they do over 90 minutes. |
I don't think they count at all, even in extra time.
Wouldn't be fair on the home team as they never had those 30 extra minutes to get one or another one when playing away in the first leg.
I think that's why it got dropped a while ago because it actually favoured the away team in the 2nd leg but there is still uncertainty to this day as to whether they count or not. [Post edited 18 May 2021 10:14]
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| Play Offs on 10:12 - May 18 with 1731 views | Juzzie |
| Play Offs on 09:55 - May 18 by hook_hoops |
I wouldn't be quite so confident of Brentford's chances on Saturday. I think in the playoffs teams often find the home leg more difficult than the away leg and I think Bournemouth will be very satisfied with their one goal lead. Brentford will have to come at Bournemouth and Bournemouth showed last night how good they are on the counter attack. And don't forget, nine play off appearances, nine fails. |
First 45 mins will be vital. Go in at half time drawing the game and I think Bournemouth will dig in even more in the 2nd half. | | | |
| Play Offs on 10:14 - May 18 with 1714 views | Tonto |
having watched bits and pieces of both games, the play off winner is going to come from the Brentford/Bournemouth match. |  |
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| Play Offs on 10:15 - May 18 with 1702 views | Juzzie |
| Play Offs on 10:14 - May 18 by Tonto |
having watched bits and pieces of both games, the play off winner is going to come from the Brentford/Bournemouth match. |
Barnsley it is then!  | | | |
| Play Offs on 10:41 - May 18 with 1637 views | TacticalR |
| Play Offs on 09:44 - May 18 by Juzzie |
F'kin "metrics" - had our monthly meeting yesterday which was all metrics, metrics metrics.
Thing is, I reckon a lot of it was wrong. They've taken the wrong data to present their findings against. What they used was the box we tick to ensure we have checked to see if the product is going to be delivered on time or not. All that box tells us is when the person checked & then ticked it to close it down. That's all. It doesn't reflect on whether parts were delivered on time, whether we placed the order on time or whether the stock will be delivered on time (mostly they are).
Parts could be delivered late but if we tick that box on time it's effectively saying everything was OK rather than everyone down the line has done that bit extra to make up for lost time.
All parts could be delivered on time but if we tick that box late (lots of reasons why that could be rather than just tardiness) it would suggest that everything was done late even though it wasn't.
Going to have a chat with my line manager about it as there are other places the appropriate info from that software can be gleaned from.
Of course, asking the staff , y'know.... those with 20, 25, 30+ years experience means nothing, everything can only be believed because it says so on a spreadsheet (even if it's incorrectly set up).
[Post edited 18 May 2021 9:46]
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There's a metrics paradox.
In theory, it's reasonable to use measures to see if a task has been carried out successfully.
The problem is that people will tend to do what is measured, and that does not necessarily have good outcomes in terms of the overall goal.
This was something that plagued the grand 'plans' of the Soviet Union. The targets would be met, regardless of the quality of the product e.g. steel that was rusty, but on paper, the requested output had been produced. |  |
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| Play Offs on 10:49 - May 18 with 1598 views | switchingcode |
| Play Offs on 09:55 - May 18 by hook_hoops |
I wouldn't be quite so confident of Brentford's chances on Saturday. I think in the playoffs teams often find the home leg more difficult than the away leg and I think Bournemouth will be very satisfied with their one goal lead. Brentford will have to come at Bournemouth and Bournemouth showed last night how good they are on the counter attack. And don't forget, nine play off appearances, nine fails. |
I’m not confident but the fact we were 1 0 down last season in first leg gives me hope.Think Bournmouth as you say will be happy with that lead and they were not in a hurry to push for a second later in the game.Still fill very lucky to be actually going to a game Saturday even with only 4200 in the stadium and maybe the last time I have to watch my team play on Sky and have to listen to the nonsense they spout about my club . | | | |
| Play Offs on 11:04 - May 18 with 1560 views | switchingcode |
| Play Offs on 21:50 - May 17 by rsonist |
It is simply a table arranged to the quality of chances a team creates which is by and large a decent indicator (not metric) of performance. We for instance have always been midtable in xG even at our lowest IRL. Brentford probably don't produce their own data for it - that particular info is made widely available now - though it's possible Benham's company may have some sort of additional edge, who knows.
It is not taken as gospel of a true alternate reality by anyone despite being a useful tool (sometimes just motivationally) more often than not. There are some managers like Dyche and Simeone who consistently make mincemeat of it.
Sky love it when they get on your nerves and call this "engagement". |
Agree with you,we all know that the club relies on stats as do most clubs it’s just that we have access to Matthew Benhams company’s which is used commercially by smart odds.As far as the justice league goes I have never seen this produced in any Brentford programe or mentioned on our forums in fact the only time I heard of it was when Clive kept mentioning it when Dean Smith was in charge.Our system has been very successful for us with our expectations but there are many championship sides who would be looking to replace their manager after failing to get promotion.Sky commentators were making a big thing of our recruitment which is impressive on the surface but there have been quite a few failures in the transfer churn and we were the top spenders last season in the championship. | | | |
| Play Offs on 11:13 - May 18 with 1547 views | bellomatic |
| Play Offs on 11:24 - May 17 by rsonist |
I'm not one for discrediting analytics but it's hard to resist poking fun when it all gets boiled down to TWO TOP SECRET ALGORITHMS. |
I agree that's comic!
One thing I did find interesting in the WSJ article is that it is clear what the algorithms are trying to optimize for: 'hard-running, always suffocating'. Once you have a clear playing strategy, it becomes possible to effectively use algorithms to guide recruitment.
Clive's report of the Barnsley match started:
> QPR were well beaten at Loftus Road on Wednesday night, run off the park comprehensively by a uniquely energetic Barnsley side... Sometimes you just have to hold your hands up. Maybe if we’d put them up and kept them there Barnsley might have agreed to leave us the f&ck alone for two minutes... Eye-opening. I couldn’t believe it either. Ball in the opposition penalty area? They’ll dispatch eight men there immediately to chase it. Ball given away on halfway? Coming straight back at you, pursued by three forwards and three attacking midfielders.
Fair play to Barnsley for having the vision to spot a different way to play the game, and the intelligence to put that vision into practice. | | | |
| Play Offs on 11:13 - May 18 with 1547 views | derbyhoop |
| Play Offs on 10:41 - May 18 by TacticalR |
There's a metrics paradox.
In theory, it's reasonable to use measures to see if a task has been carried out successfully.
The problem is that people will tend to do what is measured, and that does not necessarily have good outcomes in terms of the overall goal.
This was something that plagued the grand 'plans' of the Soviet Union. The targets would be met, regardless of the quality of the product e.g. steel that was rusty, but on paper, the requested output had been produced. |
I remember seeing a survey (spreadsheets for metrics) that showed 95% of spreadsheets had errors and 65% weren't fit for purpose.
I was involved in selling/installing an Analytics package at the time and they are only as accurate as the data being input and the effective use that can be made of them, i.e. decision making.
Nothing to do with football but football is just as likely to be swayed by BS as any other business. |  |
| Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the Earth all one’s lifetime. (Mark Twain)
Find me on twitter @derbyhoop |
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