| Season long investments 11:11 - Jul 25 with 5054 views | TomS |
It's that time of the year where we gaze into the crystal ball and put together an accumulator which will hopefully keep us interested in other leagues for much of the season. My strategy, which unfortunately has rarely paid a dividend, is to pick one bet from each of the four divisions.
This season, I'm going with Fulham to be relegated, Norwich to be promoted, (yeah, I know!), MK Dons to finish in the Top 6 and Northampton to finish in the top 7. The odds are 29/1
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| Season long investments on 14:10 - Jul 25 with 3485 views | PinnerPaul |
Ambitious calling any bet an 'investment' 
My current open bets
1) The lovely Frank to be next PL manager to leave his job 4/1
2) England to win 1-0,2-0 or 3-0 tomorrow 21/10
3) Less than 3 goals in the game v Blackburn 4/5
As mentioned before can't get involved in our pre season prices for relegation/promotion - around 7 or 8/1 for either.
Think Arsenal will make the top 4 this year, hopefully Chelsea won't but can't really see Spurs or Man Utd doing so, therefore they probably will by default. |  | | |
| Season long investments on 15:14 - Jul 25 with 3405 views | NewBee |
| Season long investments on 14:10 - Jul 25 by PinnerPaul |
Ambitious calling any bet an 'investment'
My current open bets
1) The lovely Frank to be next PL manager to leave his job 4/1
2) England to win 1-0,2-0 or 3-0 tomorrow 21/10
3) Less than 3 goals in the game v Blackburn 4/5
As mentioned before can't get involved in our pre season prices for relegation/promotion - around 7 or 8/1 for either.
Think Arsenal will make the top 4 this year, hopefully Chelsea won't but can't really see Spurs or Man Utd doing so, therefore they probably will by default. |
"1) The lovely Frank to be next PL manager to leave his job 4/1 "
Now that Hjulmand is firmly established as Head Coach of the Danish Mens' National Team, I wouldn't take 40/1 on Thomas leaving BFC at any time this season, never mind as the first of the PL twenty.
And the only reason it's as low as 40s is because it is just possible that he'd leave for some non-footballing reason eg some Fulham-supporting Delilah sneaking in and shaving his flowing locks while he's asleep, to deprive him of his superpowers.
P.S. I think Spurs will give it a real good go this season under Conte, finishing 3rd ahead of Chelsea, or even 2nd, should either of M.City or L'pool slip up from their expected level (admittedly this last bit is highly unlikely) | | | |
| Season long investments on 15:33 - Jul 25 with 3385 views | robith |
| Season long investments on 15:14 - Jul 25 by NewBee |
"1) The lovely Frank to be next PL manager to leave his job 4/1 "
Now that Hjulmand is firmly established as Head Coach of the Danish Mens' National Team, I wouldn't take 40/1 on Thomas leaving BFC at any time this season, never mind as the first of the PL twenty.
And the only reason it's as low as 40s is because it is just possible that he'd leave for some non-footballing reason eg some Fulham-supporting Delilah sneaking in and shaving his flowing locks while he's asleep, to deprive him of his superpowers.
P.S. I think Spurs will give it a real good go this season under Conte, finishing 3rd ahead of Chelsea, or even 2nd, should either of M.City or L'pool slip up from their expected level (admittedly this last bit is highly unlikely) |
This is an incredibly long winded manner in which to get the wrong end of the stick.
He's talking about Lampard |  | | |
| Season long investments on 15:41 - Jul 25 with 3351 views | stevec |
| Season long investments on 15:14 - Jul 25 by NewBee |
"1) The lovely Frank to be next PL manager to leave his job 4/1 "
Now that Hjulmand is firmly established as Head Coach of the Danish Mens' National Team, I wouldn't take 40/1 on Thomas leaving BFC at any time this season, never mind as the first of the PL twenty.
And the only reason it's as low as 40s is because it is just possible that he'd leave for some non-footballing reason eg some Fulham-supporting Delilah sneaking in and shaving his flowing locks while he's asleep, to deprive him of his superpowers.
P.S. I think Spurs will give it a real good go this season under Conte, finishing 3rd ahead of Chelsea, or even 2nd, should either of M.City or L'pool slip up from their expected level (admittedly this last bit is highly unlikely) |
I sense your lads might be a good bet for relegation at 3/1, they were falling apart until Erikson arrived. |  | | |
| Season long investments on 15:47 - Jul 25 with 3327 views | PinnerPaul |
| Season long investments on 15:14 - Jul 25 by NewBee |
"1) The lovely Frank to be next PL manager to leave his job 4/1 "
Now that Hjulmand is firmly established as Head Coach of the Danish Mens' National Team, I wouldn't take 40/1 on Thomas leaving BFC at any time this season, never mind as the first of the PL twenty.
And the only reason it's as low as 40s is because it is just possible that he'd leave for some non-footballing reason eg some Fulham-supporting Delilah sneaking in and shaving his flowing locks while he's asleep, to deprive him of his superpowers.
P.S. I think Spurs will give it a real good go this season under Conte, finishing 3rd ahead of Chelsea, or even 2nd, should either of M.City or L'pool slip up from their expected level (admittedly this last bit is highly unlikely) |
Lampard! | | | |
| Season long investments on 15:48 - Jul 25 with 3325 views | PinnerPaul |
| Season long investments on 15:33 - Jul 25 by robith |
This is an incredibly long winded manner in which to get the wrong end of the stick.
He's talking about Lampard |
Well spotted!
The clue of course is in the price, he is favourite! | | | |
| Season long investments on 16:58 - Jul 25 with 3249 views | NewBee |
| Season long investments on 15:33 - Jul 25 by robith |
This is an incredibly long winded manner in which to get the wrong end of the stick.
He's talking about Lampard |
Sorry, I thought the convention on internet fans' site was to refer to Lampard as "Fat", not "Lovely", the latter being an epithet more suited to our Thomas and his lovely, flowing locks, no?
Oh well.
Anyhow, Everton are in such financial doodoo re FFP that the Board may not be able to afford to sack him and his coaching team until/unless results make it absolutely unavoidable. While their fans seem unaccountably* to like him, meaning there won't be early pressure from them.
* -I can only think because he's not Benitez? | | | |
| Season long investments on 18:08 - Jul 25 with 3133 views | NewBee |
| Season long investments on 15:41 - Jul 25 by stevec |
I sense your lads might be a good bet for relegation at 3/1, they were falling apart until Erikson arrived. |
Ok, that's your opinion, fair enough. But I would point to a few facts which argue otherwise.
First, Bees were never lower than 15th in the table at any stage (14th when CE debuted);
Second, there is no doubt CE greatly improved the team - and results - in every respect, the team gaining 19 points from the 11 games he played. But before his arrival, they were averaging very nearly a point per game, meaning that if you reduced "his" 19 points to the team's "par" of 10, they'd still likely have avoided the drop on GD . (In fact you could remove all 19 points and they'd still have finished clear of Watford and Norwich!);
Finally, a mid-season injury to gk David Raya was as big a loss for BFC as the arrival of CE was a bonus.
For with DR in nets for the first 9 games, Bees gained 12 points = 1.33 ppg.
Yet in the 14 games he missed, Bees only managed 11 points = 0.79 ppg.
While after his return, the team gained 23 points in 15 games = 1.55 ppg (or 1.46 ppg overall, which over a 38 game season would return 55 points).
Of course it never works out quite like that, but if you offered me DR for those 14 missed games versus CE for his 11 games, I think I might take the former, at least when you see how crap* Alvaro, DR's replacement, turned out.
* - Dropped even before DR returned and binned at the end of his one season at the BCS. Meanwhile Raya went on to make his full Spain debut in March. | | | |
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| Season long investments on 21:41 - Jul 25 with 3039 views | loftboy |
I’ve done Man City, Middlesbrough, Ipswich and Wimbledon £5 each way to win their leagues, pays £11000 |  |
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| Season long investments on 14:15 - Jul 26 with 2859 views | PinnerPaul |
| Season long investments on 16:58 - Jul 25 by NewBee |
Sorry, I thought the convention on internet fans' site was to refer to Lampard as "Fat", not "Lovely", the latter being an epithet more suited to our Thomas and his lovely, flowing locks, no?
Oh well.
Anyhow, Everton are in such financial doodoo re FFP that the Board may not be able to afford to sack him and his coaching team until/unless results make it absolutely unavoidable. While their fans seem unaccountably* to like him, meaning there won't be early pressure from them.
* -I can only think because he's not Benitez? |
What swayed it for me was that he was talking relegation fight after a pre season defeat!
The spectre of Mr Dych will be hanging over him (and a few others) fairly sharpish I think. | | | |
| Season long investments on 14:49 - Jul 26 with 2796 views | westberksr |
| Season long investments on 18:08 - Jul 25 by NewBee |
Ok, that's your opinion, fair enough. But I would point to a few facts which argue otherwise.
First, Bees were never lower than 15th in the table at any stage (14th when CE debuted);
Second, there is no doubt CE greatly improved the team - and results - in every respect, the team gaining 19 points from the 11 games he played. But before his arrival, they were averaging very nearly a point per game, meaning that if you reduced "his" 19 points to the team's "par" of 10, they'd still likely have avoided the drop on GD . (In fact you could remove all 19 points and they'd still have finished clear of Watford and Norwich!);
Finally, a mid-season injury to gk David Raya was as big a loss for BFC as the arrival of CE was a bonus.
For with DR in nets for the first 9 games, Bees gained 12 points = 1.33 ppg.
Yet in the 14 games he missed, Bees only managed 11 points = 0.79 ppg.
While after his return, the team gained 23 points in 15 games = 1.55 ppg (or 1.46 ppg overall, which over a 38 game season would return 55 points).
Of course it never works out quite like that, but if you offered me DR for those 14 missed games versus CE for his 11 games, I think I might take the former, at least when you see how crap* Alvaro, DR's replacement, turned out.
* - Dropped even before DR returned and binned at the end of his one season at the BCS. Meanwhile Raya went on to make his full Spain debut in March. |
statistics are great for this kind of chat; but i seem to recall you were in pretty poor form prior to CE signing; the tide appeared to have turned. Raya would have been a big miss but further up the field you appear to have lost all mojo & CE altered that massively.
I still think you'll be ok, but not very 'comfy'. |  | | |
| Season long investments on 15:15 - Jul 26 with 2756 views | CroydonCaptJack |
| Season long investments on 14:49 - Jul 26 by westberksr |
statistics are great for this kind of chat; but i seem to recall you were in pretty poor form prior to CE signing; the tide appeared to have turned. Raya would have been a big miss but further up the field you appear to have lost all mojo & CE altered that massively.
I still think you'll be ok, but not very 'comfy'. |
They were on a bad run and heading the wrong way. Selective memory from new bee there.
Were comfortably safe in the end after a few good wins though. |  | | |
| Season long investments on 15:18 - Jul 26 with 2748 views | robith |
If you want some long term investments, why not try these for Cheltenham
Jonbon - Arkle - 7/1
Brandy Love - Mares Hurdle - 8/1
Gaillard du Mesnil - National Hunt Chase - 7/1
The Nice Guy - Brown Advisory Novice Chase - 6/1
Sir Gerhard - Turners Novice Chase - 8/1
Ahoy Senor - Gold Cup - 10/1
I'd wager £1 each way on all of those would yield a profit | | | |
| Season long investments on 15:48 - Jul 26 with 2686 views | NewBee |
| Season long investments on 14:49 - Jul 26 by westberksr |
statistics are great for this kind of chat; but i seem to recall you were in pretty poor form prior to CE signing; the tide appeared to have turned. Raya would have been a big miss but further up the field you appear to have lost all mojo & CE altered that massively.
I still think you'll be ok, but not very 'comfy'. |
If you look at it closer, BFC's poor form in November, December and January coincided exactly with Raya's absence through injury.
While along with CE's signing, their revival from February onwards coincided with his return:
https://www.transfermarkt.us/david-raya/leistungsdaten/spieler/262749/plus/0?sai
Don't get me wrong, CE was the icing AND the cherry on the cake, but DR was the key ingredient in the cake itself.
And this wasn't just for his saves, but also his ability to set up attacks from the back. When Bees played Liverpool at home in September, Lovely Thomas Frank realised that there was no way Bees could go toe-to-toe with Liverpool's pressing game with a pressing game of their own, even though that's his normal preference.
Instead he set them up to defend deep, relying on long balls from the back, usually from Raya, to hit back. The game finished a thrilling 3-3, making BFC one of only two teams to score three against them in a PL game all season (also WHU).
And here is what Klopp said after the game:
"The goalkeeper could wear the number 10 shirt. He has sent several incredible balls, exactly what you should do when you play against us," the German admitted. He was not wrong and Raya created several attacking moves from his own area.
https://www.besoccer.com/new/klopp-captivated-by-raya-he-could-wear-the-number-1
There are better gk's than him in the PL (maybe 3 or 4?), but none better with their feet and with the team built around his particular skillset*, he and Ivan Toney are BFC's two most important players.
* - Arsenal wanted to sign him last summer, but BFC fended them off, causing them to tiurn to Ramsdale instead for £30m incl add-ons. | | | |
| Season long investments on 16:04 - Jul 26 with 2659 views | NewBee |
| Season long investments on 15:15 - Jul 26 by CroydonCaptJack |
They were on a bad run and heading the wrong way. Selective memory from new bee there.
Were comfortably safe in the end after a few good wins though. |
With respect, it is people outside the club who are being selective, even simplistic, in homing in on Eriksen's influence, whilst ignoring that of Raya.
Now this is natural, and I would never underplay CE's influence, but I still believe that DR's absence was at least as important as CE's arrival in reversing our poor* winter results.
I mean, you only have to look at our impressive early results with DR in the autumn before CE even signed.
* - During our bad run, we didn't actually play that badly, hence all the defeats being by a goal or two, with the exception of a 3-0 at Anfield and an uncharacteristic "horror show" at Southampton, 4-1, the only time we conceded four all season. | | | |
| Season long investments on 16:24 - Jul 26 with 2617 views | Toast_R |
England won't win the World Cup. |  | | |
| Season long investments on 19:16 - Jul 26 with 2485 views | PlanetHonneywood |
£5 win double on China to invade Taiwan and for Taiwan to then win the Eurovision. |  |
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| Season long investments on 21:50 - Jul 26 with 2385 views | OldPedro |
| Season long investments on 16:04 - Jul 26 by NewBee |
With respect, it is people outside the club who are being selective, even simplistic, in homing in on Eriksen's influence, whilst ignoring that of Raya.
Now this is natural, and I would never underplay CE's influence, but I still believe that DR's absence was at least as important as CE's arrival in reversing our poor* winter results.
I mean, you only have to look at our impressive early results with DR in the autumn before CE even signed.
* - During our bad run, we didn't actually play that badly, hence all the defeats being by a goal or two, with the exception of a 3-0 at Anfield and an uncharacteristic "horror show" at Southampton, 4-1, the only time we conceded four all season. |
Think Brentford will struggle this season - lots of clubs seem to in the 2nd season, but I think they will stay up. |  |
| Extra mature cheddar......a simple cheese for a simple man |
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| Season long investments on 23:53 - Jul 26 with 2312 views | distortR |
| Season long investments on 15:48 - Jul 26 by NewBee |
If you look at it closer, BFC's poor form in November, December and January coincided exactly with Raya's absence through injury.
While along with CE's signing, their revival from February onwards coincided with his return:
https://www.transfermarkt.us/david-raya/leistungsdaten/spieler/262749/plus/0?sai
Don't get me wrong, CE was the icing AND the cherry on the cake, but DR was the key ingredient in the cake itself.
And this wasn't just for his saves, but also his ability to set up attacks from the back. When Bees played Liverpool at home in September, Lovely Thomas Frank realised that there was no way Bees could go toe-to-toe with Liverpool's pressing game with a pressing game of their own, even though that's his normal preference.
Instead he set them up to defend deep, relying on long balls from the back, usually from Raya, to hit back. The game finished a thrilling 3-3, making BFC one of only two teams to score three against them in a PL game all season (also WHU).
And here is what Klopp said after the game:
"The goalkeeper could wear the number 10 shirt. He has sent several incredible balls, exactly what you should do when you play against us," the German admitted. He was not wrong and Raya created several attacking moves from his own area.
https://www.besoccer.com/new/klopp-captivated-by-raya-he-could-wear-the-number-1
There are better gk's than him in the PL (maybe 3 or 4?), but none better with their feet and with the team built around his particular skillset*, he and Ivan Toney are BFC's two most important players.
* - Arsenal wanted to sign him last summer, but BFC fended them off, causing them to tiurn to Ramsdale instead for £30m incl add-ons. |
why the feck would we want to look at it closer?
A lot of us would like to see you fail, don't really care how. | | | |
| Season long investments on 00:27 - Jul 27 with 2280 views | NewBee |
| Season long investments on 23:53 - Jul 26 by distortR |
why the feck would we want to look at it closer?
A lot of us would like to see you fail, don't really care how. |
'westberksr' seemed interested in the topic, hence his reply to my post and my follow-up.
If you're not interested then fair enough, ditto if you want to see us fail.
But like most Bees fans, I'm reasonably confident we won't fail (at least not so far as getting relegated).
We shall see.
P.S. I wonder what odds you'd get on BFC finishing higher in the PL next season than QPR in the Championship? It wouldn't take very long odds to tempt me! [Post edited 27 Jul 2022 0:29]
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| Season long investments on 01:24 - Jul 27 with 2261 views | SydneyRs |
| Season long investments on 18:08 - Jul 25 by NewBee |
Ok, that's your opinion, fair enough. But I would point to a few facts which argue otherwise.
First, Bees were never lower than 15th in the table at any stage (14th when CE debuted);
Second, there is no doubt CE greatly improved the team - and results - in every respect, the team gaining 19 points from the 11 games he played. But before his arrival, they were averaging very nearly a point per game, meaning that if you reduced "his" 19 points to the team's "par" of 10, they'd still likely have avoided the drop on GD . (In fact you could remove all 19 points and they'd still have finished clear of Watford and Norwich!);
Finally, a mid-season injury to gk David Raya was as big a loss for BFC as the arrival of CE was a bonus.
For with DR in nets for the first 9 games, Bees gained 12 points = 1.33 ppg.
Yet in the 14 games he missed, Bees only managed 11 points = 0.79 ppg.
While after his return, the team gained 23 points in 15 games = 1.55 ppg (or 1.46 ppg overall, which over a 38 game season would return 55 points).
Of course it never works out quite like that, but if you offered me DR for those 14 missed games versus CE for his 11 games, I think I might take the former, at least when you see how crap* Alvaro, DR's replacement, turned out.
* - Dropped even before DR returned and binned at the end of his one season at the BCS. Meanwhile Raya went on to make his full Spain debut in March. |
Hard to say, but second season syndrome after a good first got Sheffield Utd and really should have got Leeds who were incredibly lucky to survive (and may well go close again this year). | | | |
| Season long investments on 03:20 - Jul 27 with 2224 views | SouthallRanger |
Always go for a long range acca”investment” each year. I consider it akin to playing the lotto with the logic that at least some of my own judgement is mixed in rather than just picking random numbers… although of course it’s always the bookies that win. Still a bit of fun while it lasts with a small chance of becoming a millionaire.
This year 20 fold acca:
England women to win euros 3/4
England men reach semi final of World Cup 6/4
Barca to win la liga 5/4
Bayer Leverkusen to finish top four 8/11
Marseille finish top three 1/1
Forrest to be relegated 6/5
Boro finish top six 11/10
Club Brugge win league 4/6
Ludogorets win Bulgarian league 2/5
Slavia Prague win Czech league 3/5
Ajax win league 8/13
Molde win league 5/6
Porto win league 5/4
CFR cluj win Romanian league 1/1
Slovan Bratislava win Slovakian league 1/2
Malmo win Swedish league 8/15
Ipswich finish top six 4/7
Bradford finish top seven 8/11
Chesterfield finish top seven 8/13
South Shields win northern premier league 11/8
My £10 will net me £1,872,160.48
Already planning what to spend it on… maybe one months electricity bill
Edit: maybe not the best idea in the world staying up making random bets at 3am and then posting about it on QPR message boards… time to go to sleep
Edit 2: I make similar ludicrous acca bets each round of league matches but only place £1 each time. This limits my total betting spend to under £60 per year. That goes up in World Cup and euro years, but at least it’s controlled [Post edited 27 Jul 2022 3:46]
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| Season long investments on 08:45 - Jul 27 with 2056 views | R_from_afar |
| Season long investments on 23:53 - Jul 26 by distortR |
why the feck would we want to look at it closer?
A lot of us would like to see you fail, don't really care how. |
Come on, play nicely, the fact that this site regularly features intelligent and insightful comments from supporters of other teams adds an interesting and unusual perspective to the debate and also sets LFW apart from most other fans sites from a civility and maturity standpoint 
I'm not calling for "Around Thomas Frank in 20 questions" podcasts, mind!  |  |
| "Things had started becoming increasingly desperate at Loftus Road but QPR have been handed a massive lifeline and the place has absolutely erupted. it's carnage. It's bedlam. It's 1-1." |
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| Season long investments on 15:48 - Jul 27 with 1942 views | PinnerPaul |
| Season long investments on 03:20 - Jul 27 by SouthallRanger |
Always go for a long range acca”investment” each year. I consider it akin to playing the lotto with the logic that at least some of my own judgement is mixed in rather than just picking random numbers… although of course it’s always the bookies that win. Still a bit of fun while it lasts with a small chance of becoming a millionaire.
This year 20 fold acca:
England women to win euros 3/4
England men reach semi final of World Cup 6/4
Barca to win la liga 5/4
Bayer Leverkusen to finish top four 8/11
Marseille finish top three 1/1
Forrest to be relegated 6/5
Boro finish top six 11/10
Club Brugge win league 4/6
Ludogorets win Bulgarian league 2/5
Slavia Prague win Czech league 3/5
Ajax win league 8/13
Molde win league 5/6
Porto win league 5/4
CFR cluj win Romanian league 1/1
Slovan Bratislava win Slovakian league 1/2
Malmo win Swedish league 8/15
Ipswich finish top six 4/7
Bradford finish top seven 8/11
Chesterfield finish top seven 8/13
South Shields win northern premier league 11/8
My £10 will net me £1,872,160.48
Already planning what to spend it on… maybe one months electricity bill
Edit: maybe not the best idea in the world staying up making random bets at 3am and then posting about it on QPR message boards… time to go to sleep
Edit 2: I make similar ludicrous acca bets each round of league matches but only place £1 each time. This limits my total betting spend to under £60 per year. That goes up in World Cup and euro years, but at least it’s controlled [Post edited 27 Jul 2022 3:46]
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Pointless putting that many in an acca, you will find your bookies pay out limit for a single bet WAY below that 'return' you have listed - sorry! | | | |
| Season long investments on 16:16 - Jul 27 with 1910 views | PlanetHonneywood |
| Season long investments on 15:48 - Jul 27 by PinnerPaul |
Pointless putting that many in an acca, you will find your bookies pay out limit for a single bet WAY below that 'return' you have listed - sorry! |
Funnily enough as I read down SR’s list I thought they all look reasonable, and then I read how much he’s calculated he’ll trouser and thought the same thing about payouts being capped.
If I could work out how to use a VPN to access a UK betting site, I’d have something on his selections. | |
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