| Playoffs 20:36 - Mar 7 with 9248 views | Bobbi66 |
Form team can we make it |  | | |  |
| Playoffs on 10:15 - Mar 9 with 2202 views | daveB |
i don't think we'll make the top 6 but we need to finish the season strong, give the likes of bright, Manning etc a reason to stay and to attract players this summer as a club on the up. |  | | |
| Playoffs on 12:18 - Mar 9 with 2039 views | W7Ranger |
Those thinking we would need around 74pts are not taking in to account that the pts after 37 games of the 6th place teams in those particular seasons are about 6pts higher than what Preston (who are in terrible form) have now. Also the teams in the bottom currently have a higher amount of pts at this stage of the season than usual, proving that it's a much tighter league this season as teams are constantly taking pts off each other.
Apart from us, only Millwall and Blackburn (who get hammered yesterday) are in any sort of form. So to think any of those teams above us up to 6th place will get somewhere in the region of 74/75pts is unlikely in my opinion. That would require Preston or Bristol City picking up close to 20pts in there last 9 games, which on current form is unlikely at the mo, so for me that does leave it open for other teams to catch up/overtake just in the next 2-3 games. [Post edited 11 Mar 2020 9:26]
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| Playoffs on 12:31 - Mar 9 with 2016 views | kensalriser |
Couldn't help myself, I did the table calculator here https://www.worldfootball.net/table_calculator/eng-championship/
Entering scores at the optimistic end of reasonable I have us finishing 8th on 70 points, Preston 7th on 70 and Swansea 6th on 71. Bristol C in 9th also on 70.
Not sure how I got Swansea to 6th. Probably shows how futile it is trying to predict things at this stage. I don't think we're going to get 70 points. |  |
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| Playoffs on 13:04 - Mar 9 with 1940 views | 2Thomas2Bowles |
Our average is 1.4 points per, so 60/61 points
If it stayed at 2.0 (current over last 6 games ) still only 68points
Leeds form is 1.9
Save your money for beer and ice cream in the summer.
Edit
The last time we made a run up the table into the play-off's was 2002/3
Last 9... 7 wins 1 draw 1 lose [Post edited 9 Mar 2020 13:38]
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| Playoffs on 14:31 - Mar 9 with 1806 views | dodge_stoke_r |
| Playoffs on 20:12 - Mar 8 by w7r |
Bet365 doing QPR to finish in top 6 at 50/1, got to have a tenner at those odds. |
Mate, there's a very good reason why Denise Coates travels to work in a helicopter! |  | | |
| Playoffs on 14:38 - Mar 9 with 1798 views | EmpireStateRanger |
I’ll start to think playoffs if we win against Barnsley and Charlton, who we’ve only taken 1 point from out of six.
If that happens, then that Fulham match could become something special. | | | |
| Playoffs on 14:43 - Mar 9 with 1775 views | Hayesender |
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| Playoffs on 14:44 - Mar 9 with 1777 views | E17hoop |
22/1 for us to make the playoffs with a couple of bookmakers. Keep your money in your wallet. |  |
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| Playoffs on 14:50 - Mar 9 with 1753 views | eastside_r |
Not only would we have to do the business, we would be reliant on ALL of the other teams above us to drop points. I can't see that happening.
I don't know the other teams run ins but I suspect it is probably close to being a statistical impossibility. Teams above us would need to lose consistently to teams below us and when teams above play each other - draw.
I hope we have a great end-to the-season as opposed to just waiting for the beach. 8th or 9th would be a positive outcome. |  | | |
| Playoffs on 14:51 - Mar 9 with 1751 views | BrianMcCarthy |
| Playoffs on 14:31 - Mar 9 by dodge_stoke_r |
Mate, there's a very good reason why Denise Coates travels to work in a helicopter! |
The head of the Irish Greyhound Board told a story on the radio once.
When he was a kid, his father took him to the Cork greyhound track, gave him a few pence and told him to place a bet. He did and the dog lost.
His Dad took him outside then to the car park and asked him what did he see when he looked left. He saw a few nice cars and horse-drawn carriages. Then he asked him what he saw when he looked right. He saw nothing.
His Dad told him that the cars and carriages belonged to the bookies and the nothing belonged to the punters.
He worked with greyhounds his entire life, and never placed another bet. |  |
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| Playoffs on 14:55 - Mar 9 with 1741 views | LongsufferingR |
| Playoffs on 14:31 - Mar 9 by dodge_stoke_r |
Mate, there's a very good reason why Denise Coates travels to work in a helicopter! |
Can't she drive? |  | | |
| Playoffs on 15:29 - Mar 9 with 1698 views | CamberleyR |
If we assume the teams down to fifth will make the play offs then the run ins for the teams from 12th to 6th are as follows:
WRDC
Millwall A
Reading H
Preston A
N Forest H
WBA A
Brentford H
Cardiff A
Leeds H
Brum A
SWANSEA
Boro A
Luton H
Millwall A
Sheff W H
Brum A
Leeds H
N Forest A
Bristol C H
Reading A
BLACKBURN
Bristol C H
Wigan A
Barnsley A
Leeds H
Cardiff A
WBA H
Millwall A
Reading H
Luton A
CARDIFF
Leeds H
Preston A
Charlton H
Bristol C A
Blackburn H
Fulham A
WRDC H
Boro A
Hull H
MILLWALL
WRDC H
Barnsley A
Swansea H
Charlton A
Boro H
Hull A
Blackburn H
QPR A
Huddersfield H
BRISTOL C
Blackburn A
Sheff W H
N Forest A
Cardiff H
Hull H
Boro A
Stoke H
Swansea A
Preston H
PRESTON
Luton A
Cardiff H
WRDC H
Huddersfield A
Sheff W A
N Forest H
Brentford A
Brum H
Bristol C A
We're definitely rank outsiders but make of those what you will. |  |
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| Playoffs on 16:02 - Mar 9 with 1643 views | PinnerPaul |
| Playoffs on 14:51 - Mar 9 by BrianMcCarthy |
The head of the Irish Greyhound Board told a story on the radio once.
When he was a kid, his father took him to the Cork greyhound track, gave him a few pence and told him to place a bet. He did and the dog lost.
His Dad took him outside then to the car park and asked him what did he see when he looked left. He saw a few nice cars and horse-drawn carriages. Then he asked him what he saw when he looked right. He saw nothing.
His Dad told him that the cars and carriages belonged to the bookies and the nothing belonged to the punters.
He worked with greyhounds his entire life, and never placed another bet. |
I know its a common argument, but the simple reason for bookies prfits is that for most markets one outcome is a loser for the bookies and the rest are winners so obviously they are going to come out on top more than most - that doesn't mean that all favourites win or that outsiders never do.
Another common fallacy is that a 25/1; 50/1 winner is a loser for the bookies - it generally never is - its the favourites in most markets they want to get beat. | | | |
| Playoffs on 16:50 - Mar 9 with 1590 views | ellersliehoop |
| Playoffs on 15:29 - Mar 9 by CamberleyR |
If we assume the teams down to fifth will make the play offs then the run ins for the teams from 12th to 6th are as follows:
WRDC
Millwall A
Reading H
Preston A
N Forest H
WBA A
Brentford H
Cardiff A
Leeds H
Brum A
SWANSEA
Boro A
Luton H
Millwall A
Sheff W H
Brum A
Leeds H
N Forest A
Bristol C H
Reading A
BLACKBURN
Bristol C H
Wigan A
Barnsley A
Leeds H
Cardiff A
WBA H
Millwall A
Reading H
Luton A
CARDIFF
Leeds H
Preston A
Charlton H
Bristol C A
Blackburn H
Fulham A
WRDC H
Boro A
Hull H
MILLWALL
WRDC H
Barnsley A
Swansea H
Charlton A
Boro H
Hull A
Blackburn H
QPR A
Huddersfield H
BRISTOL C
Blackburn A
Sheff W H
N Forest A
Cardiff H
Hull H
Boro A
Stoke H
Swansea A
Preston H
PRESTON
Luton A
Cardiff H
WRDC H
Huddersfield A
Sheff W A
N Forest H
Brentford A
Brum H
Bristol C A
We're definitely rank outsiders but make of those what you will. |
Based on the fixtures alone my bet would be Bristol City
But having said that I dont fancy them for 6th place if that makes any sense! | | | |
| Playoffs on 17:39 - Mar 9 with 1488 views | qprd |
| Playoffs on 15:29 - Mar 9 by CamberleyR |
If we assume the teams down to fifth will make the play offs then the run ins for the teams from 12th to 6th are as follows:
WRDC
Millwall A
Reading H
Preston A
N Forest H
WBA A
Brentford H
Cardiff A
Leeds H
Brum A
SWANSEA
Boro A
Luton H
Millwall A
Sheff W H
Brum A
Leeds H
N Forest A
Bristol C H
Reading A
BLACKBURN
Bristol C H
Wigan A
Barnsley A
Leeds H
Cardiff A
WBA H
Millwall A
Reading H
Luton A
CARDIFF
Leeds H
Preston A
Charlton H
Bristol C A
Blackburn H
Fulham A
WRDC H
Boro A
Hull H
MILLWALL
WRDC H
Barnsley A
Swansea H
Charlton A
Boro H
Hull A
Blackburn H
QPR A
Huddersfield H
BRISTOL C
Blackburn A
Sheff W H
N Forest A
Cardiff H
Hull H
Boro A
Stoke H
Swansea A
Preston H
PRESTON
Luton A
Cardiff H
WRDC H
Huddersfield A
Sheff W A
N Forest H
Brentford A
Brum H
Bristol C A
We're definitely rank outsiders but make of those what you will. |
This post highlights the key thing: the number of teams were competing with for the final playoff spot
It’s not about how many points we are from 6th.
It’s more about how many teams are between us and 6th. Even if we win the next 2 matches, there’s bound to be at least 1 team in 6-11 who will also not drop points.
Having said that, there’s always one team who makes a late run to the playoffs..... | | | |
| Playoffs on 18:58 - Mar 9 with 1393 views | Hastings_Hoops |
The ten days will make all things a bit clearer |  | | |
| Playoffs on 20:04 - Mar 9 with 1290 views | CamberleyR |
| Playoffs on 17:39 - Mar 9 by qprd |
This post highlights the key thing: the number of teams were competing with for the final playoff spot
It’s not about how many points we are from 6th.
It’s more about how many teams are between us and 6th. Even if we win the next 2 matches, there’s bound to be at least 1 team in 6-11 who will also not drop points.
Having said that, there’s always one team who makes a late run to the playoffs..... |
We are competing with a lot of teams for essentially one place although if Forest continue their poor form they could be dragged back into the pack so it could be two.
Using the Palace promotion season in 2003/04 as an example, at the same stage as now, they were 11th and five points off of sixth so as I previously said roughly similar to our position now.
The table then was:
1 Norwich P37 70pts
2 West Brom P37 70pts
3 Sheff U P37 62pts
4 Wigan P37 61pts
5 West Ham P38 60pts
6 Sunderland P35 59pts
7 Millwall P36 59pts
8 Ipswich P38 59pts
9 Reading P38 57pts
10 Coventry P38 55pts
11 Palace P37 54pts
After 46 games, Norwich, West Brom, Sunderland and West Ham remained in the top six and two of the teams that were occupying the play off spots above, finished outside (Sheff U and Wigan finished 8th and 7th respectively). Ipswich and Palace being the beneficiaries. Ipswich got 14 points from 8 games, Palace 19 from 9.
As I said in my earlier post it is quite a long shot and we are the rank outsiders but it is not impossible. Forest and Preston could be this season's Wigan and Sheffield United. If we win the next two we would have some serious momentum going and anything is possible. | |
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| Playoffs on 20:12 - Mar 9 with 1272 views | kensalriser |
The whole point about the Palace example is that it's an extreme outlier. It might happen again, but it's very unlikely.
It's probably all moot anyway as I can't see beyond the current top 5 for the teams to be promoted. | |
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| Playoffs on 21:05 - Mar 9 with 1223 views | CiderwithRsie |
| Playoffs on 20:12 - Mar 9 by kensalriser |
The whole point about the Palace example is that it's an extreme outlier. It might happen again, but it's very unlikely.
It's probably all moot anyway as I can't see beyond the current top 5 for the teams to be promoted. |
Yeah, but let's face it, we're talking about us here. If we ever get promoted the chances are it will be down to something batsh*t crazy anyway. This team more than most.
It's a bit like that thing in the Terry Pratchett book where they decide that shooting the dragon in its one vulnerable spot is a million-to-one-chance but since every time someone says "it's a million to one shot but it might just work" it always does work this means it must be nailed on.
Then they reckon its maybe only a 30-to-one shot so have to try shooting the arrow while blindfold and facing the wrong way with one foot in a bucket just to get the odds back up.
On that basis I think we should just stop picking defenders at all. | | | |
| Playoffs on 18:29 - Mar 10 with 1000 views | BazzaInTheLoft |
Listen, it’s happening get over it. People are sick of experts. I’ve booked the playoff final date off, and every Monday night between August and June.
EIEIEIO |  | | |
| Playoffs on 18:39 - Mar 10 with 987 views | Northernr |
Very excited about our 3-2 home defeat to Barnsley on Saturday now. |  | | |
| Playoffs on 19:20 - Mar 10 with 921 views | Harbour |
| Playoffs on 18:39 - Mar 10 by Northernr |
Very excited about our 3-2 home defeat to Barnsley on Saturday now. |
Yes Robiths relegation post coming here soon...it’s the Rangers ways | | | |
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