| Champ Survival 11:36 - Jan 2 with 5571 views | muckduck |
Who do we reckon goes down from this stage?
Obviously all up for grabs and so much can change - Incredibly Luton looking worrying at the moment, but can't see it happening.
QPR survival needs about 1 point per game from here on out (50 pts) which is incredible seeing where we were a month ago. |  | | |  |
| Champ Survival on 15:43 - Jan 2 with 2341 views | W7Ranger |
| Champ Survival on 15:27 - Jan 2 by Northernr |
It's a really tough call looking at that table.
Hull's new boss has a big month coming up - us, Stoke, Millwall, Cardiff.
Stoke I'm fascinated by. Arguably the division's best striker and goalkeeper. They look awful every time I watch them. I'm wondering if this Robins appointment isn't the sure bet it seems without Viveash at his side.
I can't believe that Oxford team we saw has now won three in a row. I still think they'll go. Always follow the money. Same with Plymouth.
You don't want to be the lower midtable side that gets in a Birmingham-like run of form and can't get out of it. We've still got to be so wary that's not us. When Jimmy Dunne went down yesterday with what looked a dislocated shoulder the world fell out of my ars. |
I think if Dunne had any sort of spell out with injury (like you I felt he'd dislocated his shoulder, or had a recurrence of his injury at the start of last season), I think he would undoubtadly be the biggest loss to the team. He's currently our most influential player, who's having a massive impact/effect on games at both ends of the pitch.
He'd be a bigger loss to the team than Nardi would imo. |  | | |
| Champ Survival on 17:41 - Jan 2 with 2210 views | baz_qpr |
Luton
Hull
Plymouth |  | | |
| Champ Survival on 18:00 - Jan 2 with 2145 views | Harbour |
| Champ Survival on 12:31 - Jan 2 by daveB |
yeah we still have work to do to make sure we don't get dragged back into it
I think Millwall might end up in trouble |
Yes think we need a few in the jan window given our injury list ..we are not safe by any means but more content now than pre Xmas..as lot said plenty of work and points to be won. | | | |
| Champ Survival on 18:13 - Jan 2 with 2091 views | GaryBannister86 |
| Champ Survival on 15:43 - Jan 2 by W7Ranger |
I think if Dunne had any sort of spell out with injury (like you I felt he'd dislocated his shoulder, or had a recurrence of his injury at the start of last season), I think he would undoubtadly be the biggest loss to the team. He's currently our most influential player, who's having a massive impact/effect on games at both ends of the pitch.
He'd be a bigger loss to the team than Nardi would imo. |
I was up the other end but thought his shoulder had popped out and they shoved it back in? Can be done, can't it? |  | | |
| Champ Survival on 18:46 - Jan 2 with 1985 views | kensalriser |
| Champ Survival on 18:13 - Jan 2 by GaryBannister86 |
I was up the other end but thought his shoulder had popped out and they shoved it back in? Can be done, can't it? |
Would be very ill-advised to carry on playing after a dislocation. |  |
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| Champ Survival on 12:14 - Jan 3 with 1672 views | LazyFan |
Plymouth
Oxford
Portsmouth
Luton won't go down. Their strikers will pull their fingers out if they keep going as they are. They have the forwards to get out of trouble.
Cardiff will get some signings in this month and finally work out Robinson is useless and play Meitie more even though he runs hot and cold.
Derby might challenge Pompy for that last spot. |  |
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| Champ Survival on 13:09 - Jan 3 with 1570 views | saxbend |
Cardiff, Stoke and either Plymouth or Luton. Probably Plymouth although I would prefer them to stay up, and with a manager they could have a chance. |  | | |
| Champ Survival on 13:10 - Jan 3 with 1567 views | stowmarketrange |
| Champ Survival on 12:14 - Jan 3 by LazyFan |
Plymouth
Oxford
Portsmouth
Luton won't go down. Their strikers will pull their fingers out if they keep going as they are. They have the forwards to get out of trouble.
Cardiff will get some signings in this month and finally work out Robinson is useless and play Meitie more even though he runs hot and cold.
Derby might challenge Pompy for that last spot. |
Andre Gray has left Plymouth this morning as the pasties weren’t as good as he was expecting.Unless they’ve got more strikers in the club,they might not score enough to outweigh the goals they concede. |  | | |
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| Champ Survival on 13:18 - Jan 3 with 1519 views | Loyalitat |
| Champ Survival on 12:14 - Jan 3 by LazyFan |
Plymouth
Oxford
Portsmouth
Luton won't go down. Their strikers will pull their fingers out if they keep going as they are. They have the forwards to get out of trouble.
Cardiff will get some signings in this month and finally work out Robinson is useless and play Meitie more even though he runs hot and cold.
Derby might challenge Pompy for that last spot. |
We're still in it. I'd say all teams under 30 points at this stage are under threat. That's why I like this league.
If we can get a few more wins from the next four games in January, then the spectre of relegation will start to recede. The way we are playing and competing, along with some players coming back, we should fancy our chances in each of those games.
I do hope Cardiff stop playing Robinson, as he's already scored 8 league goals.
Plymouth aside, it's too close to call at this stage. Just hope that we can beat Luton on Monday to get them closer to the bottom three. | | | |
| Champ Survival on 11:30 - Jan 5 with 1216 views | nix |
Anything crazy could still happen. We had 21 points after 26 matches last season and Sheff Wed 22 points. Birmingham had 28 and Huddersfield 25. Cardiff, Hull and Portsmouth all have two more points than we did. |  | | |
| Champ Survival on 13:14 - Jan 5 with 1110 views | BrianWilson |
| Champ Survival on 15:40 - Jan 2 by Superhoop83 |
We're sixth favourites with the bookies, at shorter odds than Stoke, Luton and Derby. The best odds available for us are 6/1 while Coventry, also on 29 points, can be found at 80/1 with the same bookies!
On a brighter note we are also 6/1 to finish in the top half and those odds are coming in, whereas our relegation odds are drifting. |
Yeah but that's "Frank Lampards Coventry" now! |  |
| "a diseased bunch of mofos if there ever was one, their beauty is so awesome that listening to them at their best is like being in some vast dream cathedral decorated with a thousand gleaming American pop culture icons."
- Lester Bangs on The Beach Boys |
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| Champ Survival on 13:31 - Jan 5 with 1033 views | Wilkinswatercarrier |
Plymouth, Cardiff, and Derbyto go.
Plymouth and Cardiff just don't seem to be able to grind out the wins, Cardiff especially seems very soft.
There is always one team that seems to implode, like Birmingham, and I think Derby could be the ones to get pulled down. | | | |
| Champ Survival on 15:00 - Jan 5 with 909 views | francisbowles |
| Champ Survival on 11:30 - Jan 5 by nix |
Anything crazy could still happen. We had 21 points after 26 matches last season and Sheff Wed 22 points. Birmingham had 28 and Huddersfield 25. Cardiff, Hull and Portsmouth all have two more points than we did. |
For those who may have forgotten and to add to Nix's point.
Back in 2018/19 We drew 2-2 at Villa in this round. They were 9th on 38, we were 8th on 39. After 24 games, we had been 7th 2 points off the play off positions.
We then crashed and in the remaining matches W3 D3 L14 19th 51 PTS. Our three wins were against Leeds who were top, a 4-0 at home to Swansea and a last day, last minute, wonder goal from big Matt Smith, win at Hillsborough.
Villa W12 D4 L4, one of the defeats was on the last day when they had already made the playoffs. Near the end of the season, they won 10 consecutively. They went on to win the play offs, having won on penalties in the semi.
We at one point lost six in a row, which was part of a run of ONE win in 17.
We were safe by 11 points, (my memory thought it was closer) but the bottom three were really poor that season. Peterborough had been relegated with 54 in 2013.
Anyway, I'm off to collect some bus numbers.😁 | | | |
| Champ Survival on 15:12 - Jan 5 with 886 views | Northernr |
| Champ Survival on 15:00 - Jan 5 by francisbowles |
For those who may have forgotten and to add to Nix's point.
Back in 2018/19 We drew 2-2 at Villa in this round. They were 9th on 38, we were 8th on 39. After 24 games, we had been 7th 2 points off the play off positions.
We then crashed and in the remaining matches W3 D3 L14 19th 51 PTS. Our three wins were against Leeds who were top, a 4-0 at home to Swansea and a last day, last minute, wonder goal from big Matt Smith, win at Hillsborough.
Villa W12 D4 L4, one of the defeats was on the last day when they had already made the playoffs. Near the end of the season, they won 10 consecutively. They went on to win the play offs, having won on penalties in the semi.
We at one point lost six in a row, which was part of a run of ONE win in 17.
We were safe by 11 points, (my memory thought it was closer) but the bottom three were really poor that season. Peterborough had been relegated with 54 in 2013.
Anyway, I'm off to collect some bus numbers.😁 |
The big problem we had that year was the physical condition of the team/squad.
McClaren flogged them to death through the first half, and we had a tonne of injuries and knackered players through the second half.
I suspect how the next few months go will depend a lot on whether Colback, JCS, Cook and those sorts are going to come back to strengthen a team already in decent form, or whether we're going to keep losing players at the rate we are currently.
Pompey already one down at Sunderland and not at the races through the first ten. |  | | |
| Champ Survival on 15:16 - Jan 5 with 871 views | 100percent |
Trying to remember the name of that poster last season that used to stick the thread up based on survival - was really informative based on stats etc....??
Anyway, for what its worth I'm really surprised that most people have portsmouth out of the running for relegation... still think they are deep in it.
My guess is that Plymouth, Derby and either Portsmouth or Cardiff will go down.... |  | | |
| Champ Survival on 15:55 - Jan 5 with 788 views | nix |
| Champ Survival on 15:12 - Jan 5 by Northernr |
The big problem we had that year was the physical condition of the team/squad.
McClaren flogged them to death through the first half, and we had a tonne of injuries and knackered players through the second half.
I suspect how the next few months go will depend a lot on whether Colback, JCS, Cook and those sorts are going to come back to strengthen a team already in decent form, or whether we're going to keep losing players at the rate we are currently.
Pompey already one down at Sunderland and not at the races through the first ten. |
The player I'm a bit worried about getting injuries from overplaying is Smyth. Just because we've got no-one who has his pace and he puts so much work in every match. | | | |
| Champ Survival on 16:03 - Jan 5 with 756 views | Northernr |
| Champ Survival on 15:55 - Jan 5 by nix |
The player I'm a bit worried about getting injuries from overplaying is Smyth. Just because we've got no-one who has his pace and he puts so much work in every match. |
Only one with any pace as well.
A bad injury to Dunne at this point would be disastrous as well.
We've rotated everybody else pretty well but we're running Smyth and Dunne on take-off power, as we were with Cook. | | | |
| Champ Survival on 16:25 - Jan 5 with 687 views | nix |
| Champ Survival on 16:03 - Jan 5 by Northernr |
Only one with any pace as well.
A bad injury to Dunne at this point would be disastrous as well.
We've rotated everybody else pretty well but we're running Smyth and Dunne on take-off power, as we were with Cook. |
Yep. | | | |
| Champ Survival on 16:41 - Jan 5 with 636 views | WatfordR |
| Champ Survival on 12:14 - Jan 3 by LazyFan |
Plymouth
Oxford
Portsmouth
Luton won't go down. Their strikers will pull their fingers out if they keep going as they are. They have the forwards to get out of trouble.
Cardiff will get some signings in this month and finally work out Robinson is useless and play Meitie more even though he runs hot and cold.
Derby might challenge Pompy for that last spot. |
That would be my three too. Surprised more haven't mentioned Pompey, Oxford looked out of their depth at ours, but Portsmouth were pretty poor too. Cardiff would be the other ones in the mix, but I think they are probably just better than the other three. |  | | |
| Champ Survival on 16:46 - Jan 5 with 624 views | Northernr |
| Champ Survival on 16:41 - Jan 5 by WatfordR |
That would be my three too. Surprised more haven't mentioned Pompey, Oxford looked out of their depth at ours, but Portsmouth were pretty poor too. Cardiff would be the other ones in the mix, but I think they are probably just better than the other three. |
I've just slogged through the Portsmouth game and they were Belgian motorway basic. | | | |
| Champ Survival on 16:48 - Jan 5 with 616 views | BrizR |
It's hard to see past the current bottom three.
Plymouth are slightly above average points per game for the team in 24th on 0.8 at the minute, but that average is dragged down a lot by the Rotherham 2023-24 type teams which basically just give up halfway through a season. 0.8ppg hasn't been enough to save you in any of the last 14 seasons (2010-11 onwards).
Cardiff are equally rubbish and trending at 0.92ppg, which gets you relegated almost all of the time - Reading escaped on 0.89 in 2021-22 and that's the only exception I can see.
Hull are actually worse on ppg than Cardiff, they're only ahead on goal difference and look in real trouble to me. Second-lowest points per game in the division, plus they've played more games than everyone around/above them so they have the least room to make up the ground. They're a little better defensively than the other teams at the bottom, but they don't score much either.
No call for complacency and it's still possible for one or all of the bottom three to go on a QPR/Wednesday 2023-24 style run and get themselves out of it, but with more than half the games played it's not a great picture if you're down there at the minute. Goes without saying also that last season was unusually tough - Birmingham would have been fine on 50pts in all of the 13 previous seasons except 2016-17 and the ridiculous 2012-13. Based on current trends you could be safe on 44pts this season which we're not far away from at all - it's Derby downwards who are looking over their shoulders. | | | |
| Champ Survival on 17:00 - Jan 5 with 582 views | Northernr |
| Champ Survival on 16:48 - Jan 5 by BrizR |
It's hard to see past the current bottom three.
Plymouth are slightly above average points per game for the team in 24th on 0.8 at the minute, but that average is dragged down a lot by the Rotherham 2023-24 type teams which basically just give up halfway through a season. 0.8ppg hasn't been enough to save you in any of the last 14 seasons (2010-11 onwards).
Cardiff are equally rubbish and trending at 0.92ppg, which gets you relegated almost all of the time - Reading escaped on 0.89 in 2021-22 and that's the only exception I can see.
Hull are actually worse on ppg than Cardiff, they're only ahead on goal difference and look in real trouble to me. Second-lowest points per game in the division, plus they've played more games than everyone around/above them so they have the least room to make up the ground. They're a little better defensively than the other teams at the bottom, but they don't score much either.
No call for complacency and it's still possible for one or all of the bottom three to go on a QPR/Wednesday 2023-24 style run and get themselves out of it, but with more than half the games played it's not a great picture if you're down there at the minute. Goes without saying also that last season was unusually tough - Birmingham would have been fine on 50pts in all of the 13 previous seasons except 2016-17 and the ridiculous 2012-13. Based on current trends you could be safe on 44pts this season which we're not far away from at all - it's Derby downwards who are looking over their shoulders. |
I’d be astonished if hull don’t make a clutch of signings including some big name loans.
Mind you I said that in August too. | | | |
| Champ Survival on 18:29 - Jan 5 with 454 views | BrizR |
| Champ Survival on 17:00 - Jan 5 by Northernr |
I’d be astonished if hull don’t make a clutch of signings including some big name loans.
Mind you I said that in August too. |
Yeah January could be big and the Hull owner seems like he's in a hurry to spend and get where he thinks they ought to be. I have no idea what the PSR situation is at any of these though, do Hull have much room? I thought they spent a lot in January 2024 too but I can't remember what their summer was like. | | | |
| Champ Survival on 19:18 - Jan 5 with 364 views | StrawberryHillR |
Late to the thread but couldn't believe the 80/1 about Coventry, if anyone is inept and out of their depth enough to take them down then it's super Frankie Lampard. Down to 66/1 after they somehow contrived to lose at Norwich after being ahead in the 90th minute, but still well worth a fiver towards the season ticket fund for 25/26. | | | |
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